Severe Thunderstorm Warning 34, NWS Glasgow, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
422 AM MDT SUN JUN 24 2012

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
SHORTWAVE HAS MOVED INTO PHILLIPS AND VALLEY COUNTIES EARLY THIS
MORNING AND PRODUCED A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THESE
STORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE MOVING
TO THE NORTHEAST. OTHERWISE...MID LEVEL CAP WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA TODAY LIMITING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA
THROUGH MONDAY...MAKING FOR HOT TEMPERATURES. A PERSISTENT SURFACE
PATTERN FEATURING LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE NORTHEAST WILL DRIVE EAST WINDS AT 15 TO 30 MPH THROUGH AT
LEAST THIS EVENING. THE CURRENT TIMING OF THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY
EXPIRING THIS EVENING FOR FORT PECK LAKE LOOKS GOOD.

MONDAY TEMPERATURES WILL FURTHER RISE AS THE THERMAL RIDGE PUSHES
IN FROM THE SOUTH. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE 90S AT MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS OVER THE SOUTH.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE CAP WILL ERODE ACROSS THE SOUTH BY
EVENING...THANKS TO A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND WEAK SHORTWAVE
FEATURES ALOFT. WITH POTENTIAL INSTABILITY LOOKING RATHER
IMPRESSIVE AT 4000 TO 4500 J/KG AND A FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONG TO SEVERE SIDE.

MAY SEE A FEW STORMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH A
SHORTWAVE ON SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS THE RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST.
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO WESTERN MONTANA ON TUESDAY. COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA. VERY DRY AIRMASS MOVING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AND LACK OF SHORTWAVE DYNAMICS WILL LIMIT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER PARTS
OF THE AREA. FORRESTER/GILCHRIST

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
UPPER TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST...INTENSIFIES INTO A TIGHT
LITTLE SYSTEM AS IT KICKS NE INTO CANADA. THIS DOES BRING A
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS NE MT TUE NIGHT. THE WINDOW OF
INSTABILITY IS NARROW...WITH THE MAIN UPPER DYNAMICS TO OUR N.
THIS ALSO DRAWS IN VERY DRY AIR FROM THE SW U.S. INTO THE
SYSTEM...QUICKLY SWEEPING AWAY AND VERY HUMID SSE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
THUS EXPECT ONLY A VERY LIMITED AMOUNT OF CONVECTION ALONG AND
AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...AND SO HAVE LOWERED POPS.

LAST 2 GFS MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWN UP TO 65 KT WIND AT 850 MB BEHIND
THE FRONT. OTHER MODELS UP TO 45 KT. WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION...
WINDS AT THIS LEVEL LIKELY TO MIX TO SURFACE EVEN AT NIGHT...SO
IT WILL WINDY TUE NIGHT/WED...AND COOLER WED.

THE REST OF THE PERIOD HAS A DRY UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA...WITH
SLOWLY RISING 500 MB HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES THU THRU SAT. TEMPS
WARM BACK UP TO AROUND 90. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THRU THIS TIME
PERIOD. SUNDAY DAY 8 THOUGH...MODELS DEVELOP DIFFERENCES ON
WHETHER OR NOT TO START MOVING A TROUGH FROM THE W TOWARD OUR
AREA. WILL STAY MAINLY DRY UNTIL THIS BETTER RESOLVED. SIMONSEN

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS N OF THE MISSOURI RIVER THIS
MORN...MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO TO 2 TO 3 MILES WITH
GUSTY WINDS TO 40 KT AND SMALL HAIL. CEILING WILL STAY VFR
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LAYERS 5 TO 10 KT FT AGL. ONE OF TWO OF THESE
MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL. OTHERWISE...VFR UNDER MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES. SIMONSEN

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR FORT PECK
LAKE.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
230 PM MDT SAT JUN 23 2012

MTZ016-017-021>023-241100-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-
PETROLEUM-GARFIELD-MCCONE-
230 PM MDT SAT JUN 23 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR FORT
PECK LAKE FOR SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MILES PER HOUR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
803 AM MDT SUN JUN 24 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 AM     HAIL             9 ESE VOLT              48.34N 105.54W
06/24/2012  E0.75 INCH       ROOSEVELT          MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ALSO 1 INCH OF RAIN FROM 630 AM TO 730 AM.

&&

MATTM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
810 AM MDT SUN JUN 24 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 AM     TSTM WND GST     1 S BROCKTON            48.14N 104.92W
06/24/2012  E60 MPH          ROOSEVELT          MT   PUBLIC

&&

MATTM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
814 AM MDT SUN JUN 24 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0810 AM     TSTM WND GST     W CULBERTSON            48.14N 104.52W
06/24/2012  E50 MPH          ROOSEVELT          MT   TRAINED SPOTTER

            40 TO 50 MPH WIND GUST WITH HEAVY RAIN AND SOME 1/4 INCH
            HAIL...STILL RAINING.

&&

MATTM

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