Alert archive / Texas / Winter Storm Warnings in 2012

Winter Storm Warning 1, NWS Fort Worth, TX

December 25, 20125 counties in Texas

NWS Fort Worth, TX issued this winter storm warning at Dec 25, 2012, 3:13 AM CST for 5 counties in Texas. It took effect at Dec 25, 2012, 9:00 AM CST. It was in force for 9 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Dec 25, 2012, 3:13 AM CST (09:13 UTC)
In effect from
Dec 25, 2012, 9:00 AM CST
Expired
Dec 25, 2012, 6:16 PM CST
In force
9 hr
Issued by
NWS Fort Worth, TX

Counties Cooke County, TX, Fannin County, TX, Grayson County, TX, Lamar County, TX, Montague County, TX

The radar

The Dallas/Ft Worth radar (KFWS), 133 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 09:16 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Fort Worth, TX (KFWD), launched 00:00Z, 9.2 hours before the alert went out and 108 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Fort Worth, TX at 00:00Z on 2012-12-25Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Fort Worth, TX at 00:00Z on 2012-12-25The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 175 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
2604 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
51 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
175 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
258 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

508 
WWUS44 KFWD 250913
WSWFWD

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
313 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW IN EFFECT FOR COUNTIES
BORDERING THE RED RIVER...

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IS IN EFFECT FOR LOCATIONS
NORTH OF BRECKENRIDGE TO ARLINGTON TO SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE...

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...BUT AS A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS...TEMPERATURES
WILL PLUMMET. RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE DAY. SNOW WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE NORTH...AS 4 TO 6
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE COUNTIES THAT BORDER THE RED
RIVER. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS TO THE SOUTH...TAPERING DOWN TO 1
INCH OR LESS ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR.

TXZ091>095-251715-
/O.UPG.KFWD.WW.Y.0002.121225T1800Z-121226T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KFWD.WS.W.0001.121225T1500Z-121226T0600Z/
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOWIE...NOCONA...GAINESVILLE...
SHERMAN...DENISON...BONHAM...PARIS
313 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO
MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS
MORNING TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT. THIS IS AN UPGRADE TO THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY.

* TIMING...RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FROM WEST TO
  EAST IN THE LATE MORNING AND INTO AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOW WILL END
  FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

* LOCATION...THE COUNTIES OF MONTAGUE...COOKE...GRAYSON...FANNIN
  AND LAMAR ARE UNDER THE WINTER STORM WARNING.

* MAIN IMPACT...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 4 AND 6 INCHES.

* OTHER IMPACTS...NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH HIGHER
  GUSTS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN
  VISIBILITIES LESS THAN A HALF MILE. BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WILL
  BE THE FIRST TO ICE OVER AND BECOME SNOW PACKED...BUT SURFACE
  ROADS WILL ALSO BECOME ICY BY LATE AFTERNOON IN AREAS WHERE
  HEAVIER SNOW FALLS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
SNOW...SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING.
ROADS...BRIDGES...AND OVERPASSES IN THE WARNING AREA WILL BE
VERY HAZARDOUS AND POSSIBLY IMPASSIBLE. DO NOT TRAVEL IN THE
WARNING AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY.
KEEP AN EXTRA BLANKET...FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR
VEHICLE IN CASE YOU BECOME STRANDED.

&&

$$

TXZ115>120-251715-
/O.EXB.KFWD.WW.Y.0002.121225T1500Z-121226T0600Z/
STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-ROCKWALL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRECKENRIDGE...MINERAL WELLS...
WEATHERFORD...BRIAR...FORT WORTH...ARLINGTON...DALLAS...ROCKWALL
313 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO
MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS
MORNING TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT.

* TIMING...RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FROM WEST TO
  EAST THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
  EVENING HOURS.

* LOCATION...THIS WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY STATEMENT IS FOR THE
  COUNTIES OF STEPHENS...PALO PINTO...PARKER...TARRANT...DALLAS
  AND ROCKWALL.

* MAIN IMPACT...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES.

* OTHER IMPACTS...NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH HIGHER
  GUSTS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. THIS MAY RESULT IN
  VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS OF LESS THAN A HALF MILE. BRIDGES AND
  OVERPASSES WILL BE THE FIRST TO ICE OVER...BUT SOME SURFACE
  ROADS MAY BECOME ICY BY LATE AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE PREPARED FOR ICY SPOTS ON AREA ROADS AND HIGHWAYS BY CHRISTMAS
EVENING. CHECK ROAD CONDITIONS BEFORE DEPARTING IF YOU MUST
TRAVEL. IF TRAVEL IS NECESSARY...DRIVE WITH EXTREME CAUTION. SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND ICE ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON
ELEVATED SURFACES. BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WILL BE THE FIRST
LOCATIONS WHERE ICY SPOTS MAY DEVELOP.

&&

$$

TXZ100>107-251715-
/O.EXT.KFWD.WW.Y.0002.121225T1500Z-121226T0600Z/
YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GRAHAM...OLNEY...JACKSBORO...DECATUR...
BRIDGEPORT...DENTON...LEWISVILLE...FLOWER MOUND...THE COLONY...
PLANO...GREENVILLE...COMMERCE...COOPER...SULPHUR SPRINGS
313 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING
TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT...

* TIMING...RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FROM WEST TO
  EAST TODAY. ALL SNOW WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE EVENING
  HOURS.

* LOCATION...THIS WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY STATEMENT IS FOR THE
  COUNTIES OF YOUNG...JACK...WISE...DENTON...COLLIN...HUNT...DELTA
  AND HOPKINS. 

* MAIN IMPACT...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES.

* OTHER IMPACTS...NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH HIGHER 
  GUSTS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. THIS MAY RESULT IN 
  VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS OF LESS THAN A HALF MILE. BRIDGES AND 
  OVERPASSES WILL BE THE FIRST TO ICE OVER...BUT SOME SURFACE 
  ROADS MAY BECOME ICY BY LATE AFTERNOON IN AREAS WHERE HEAVIER 
  SNOW FALLS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE PREPARED FOR ICY SPOTS ON AREA ROADS AND HIGHWAYS BY CHRISTMAS
EVENING. CHECK ROAD CONDITIONS BEFORE DEPARTING IF YOU MUST
TRAVEL. IF TRAVEL IS NECESSARY...DRIVE WITH EXTREME CAUTION. SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND ICE ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON
ELEVATED SURFACES. BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WILL BE THE FIRST
LOCATIONS WHERE ICY SPOTS MAY DEVELOP.

&&

$$


92
3 follow-up statements
952 
WWUS44 KFWD 251709
WSWFWD

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1109 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW IN EFFECT FOR COUNTIES
BORDERING THE RED RIVER...

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IS IN EFFECT FOR LOCATIONS
NORTH OF BRECKENRIDGE TO ARLINGTON TO SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE...

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
THE REGION TODAY. A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
NORTH TEXAS DURING THE MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND
THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET
ONCE THE FRONT PASSES. RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE NORTH...AS
4 TO 6 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE COUNTIES THAT BORDER THE
RED RIVER. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS TO THE SOUTH...TAPERING DOWN
TO 1 INCH OR LESS ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR.

TXZ091>095-260115-
/O.CON.KFWD.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-121226T0600Z/
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOWIE...NOCONA...GAINESVILLE...
SHERMAN...DENISON...BONHAM...PARIS
1109 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT...

* TIMING...RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FROM WEST TO
  EAST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST
  DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

* LOCATION...THE COUNTIES OF MONTAGUE...COOKE...GRAYSON...FANNIN 
  AND LAMAR ARE UNDER THE WINTER STORM WARNING. 

* MAIN IMPACT...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 4 AND 6 INCHES.

* OTHER IMPACTS...NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH HIGHER 
  GUSTS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. THIS WILL RESULT 
  IN VISIBILITIES LESS THAN A HALF MILE. BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES 
  WILL BE THE FIRST TO ICE OVER AND BECOME SNOW PACKED...BUT 
  SURFACE ROADS WILL ALSO BECOME ICY BY LATE AFTERNOON IN AREAS 
  WHERE HEAVIER SNOW FALLS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. ROADS...BRIDGES...AND
OVERPASSES IN THE WARNING AREA WILL BE VERY HAZARDOUS AND
POSSIBLY IMPASSIBLE. DO NOT TRAVEL IN THE WARNING AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. KEEP AN EXTRA
BLANKET...FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE
YOU BECOME STRANDED.

&&

$$

TXZ100>107-115>120-260115-
/O.CON.KFWD.WW.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-121226T0600Z/
YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-
PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-ROCKWALL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GRAHAM...OLNEY...JACKSBORO...DECATUR...
BRIDGEPORT...DENTON...LEWISVILLE...FLOWER MOUND...THE COLONY...
PLANO...GREENVILLE...COMMERCE...COOPER...SULPHUR SPRINGS...
BRECKENRIDGE...MINERAL WELLS...WEATHERFORD...BRIAR...FORT WORTH...
ARLINGTON...DALLAS...ROCKWALL
1109 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT...

* TIMING...RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FROM WEST TO 
  EAST THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING 
  THE EVENING HOURS. 

* LOCATION...THIS WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY STATEMENT IS FOR THE 
  COUNTIES OF STEPHENS...PALO PINTO...PARKER...TARRANT...DALLAS 
  AND ROCKWALL. 

* MAIN IMPACT...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES.

* OTHER IMPACTS...NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH HIGHER 
  GUSTS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. THIS MAY RESULT IN 
  VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS OF LESS THAN A HALF MILE. BRIDGES AND 
  OVERPASSES WILL BE THE FIRST TO ICE OVER...BUT SOME SURFACE 
  ROADS MAY BECOME ICY BY LATE AFTERNOON. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE PREPARED FOR ICY SPOTS ON AREA ROADS AND HIGHWAYS BY CHRISTMAS
EVENING. CHECK ROAD CONDITIONS BEFORE DEPARTING IF YOU MUST
TRAVEL. IF TRAVEL IS NECESSARY...DRIVE WITH EXTREME CAUTION. SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND ICE ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON
ELEVATED SURFACES. BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WILL BE THE FIRST
LOCATIONS WHERE ICY SPOTS MAY DEVELOP.

&&

$$
355 
WWUS44 KFWD 252154
WSWFWD

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
354 PM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW IN EFFECT FOR COUNTIES
BORDERING THE RED RIVER...

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IS IN EFFECT FOR LOCATIONS
NORTH OF BRECKENRIDGE TO ARLINGTON TO SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE...

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO EFFECT NORTH
TEXAS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SNOW AND AREAS OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE. THE SURFACE SYSTEM HAS TAKEN A TRACK SLIGHTLY FARTHER
SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...THUS THE AREA OF WINTER WEATHER
WILL AFFECT AREAS FARTHER SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR FROM CLEBURNE
EAST TO SOUTH OF ATHENS BEFORE ENDING LATE THIS EVENING. SOME OF
THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF THE METROPLEX
NORTH AND NORTHEAST TO THE RED RIVER AND INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.
SNOW AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO NEARLY 4 INCHES ACROSS THE
METROPLEX TO 3 TO 6 INCHES GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A DENTON
TO GREENVILLE AND PARIS LINE.

DUE TO TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING OVERNIGHT AND HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS ON SNOW COVERED ROADS...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED AND EXTENDED FOR AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF A JACKSBORO
TO CRESSON AND ATHENS LINE FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING
WEDNESDAY.


TXZ091>095-260600-
/O.EXB.KFWD.WW.Y.0002.121226T0600Z-121226T1500Z/
/O.CON.KFWD.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-121226T0600Z/
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOWIE...NOCONA...GAINESVILLE...
SHERMAN...DENISON...BONHAM...PARIS
354 PM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
9 AM CST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS CONTINUE THE WINTER
WEATHER WARNING THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES AND HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS ON SNOW COVERED ROADS...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY.

* TIMING...OVERNIGHT.

* LOCATION...THIS WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY STATEMENT IS FOR THE
  COUNTIES OF MONTAGUE...COOKE...GRAYSON...FANNIN AND LAMAR.

* MAIN IMPACT...3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOWFALL COVERING ROADS AND
  MAKING DRIVING HAZARDOUS.

* OTHER IMPACTS...NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER
  GUSTS MAY PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. THIS MAY RESULT IN
  VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS OF LESS THAN A HALF MILE. BRIDGES AND
  OVERPASSES WILL BE THE FIRST TO ICE OVER...BUT SOME SURFACE
  ROADS MAY BECOME ICY BY LATE AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE PREPARED FOR ICY SPOTS ON AREA ROADS AND HIGHWAYS BY CHRISTMAS
EVENING. CHECK ROAD CONDITIONS BEFORE DEPARTING IF YOU MUST
TRAVEL. IF TRAVEL IS NECESSARY...DRIVE WITH EXTREME CAUTION. SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND ICE ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON
ELEVATED SURFACES. BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WILL BE THE FIRST
LOCATIONS WHERE ICY SPOTS MAY DEVELOP.

&&

$$

TXZ121>123-260600-
/O.EXB.KFWD.WW.Y.0002.121226T0600Z-121226T1500Z/
KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TERRELL...KAUFMAN...FORNEY...
WILLS POINT...CANTON...GRAND SALINE...VAN...EDGEWOOD...EMORY...
POINT...EAST TAWAKONI
354 PM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
9 AM CST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES AND HAZARDOUS
DRIVING CONDITIONS ON SNOW COVERED ROADS...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA AND CONTINUE
  INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE ENDING.

* LOCATION...THIS WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY STATEMENT IS FOR THE
  COUNTIES OF KAUFMAN...VAN ZANDT AND RAINS.

* MAIN IMPACT...1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL COVERING ROADS AND
  MAKING DRIVING HAZARDOUS.

* OTHER IMPACTS...NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER
  GUSTS MAY PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. THIS MAY RESULT IN
  VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS OF LESS THAN A HALF MILE. BRIDGES AND
  OVERPASSES WILL BE THE FIRST TO ICE OVER...BUT SOME SURFACE
  ROADS MAY BECOME ICY BY LATE AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE PREPARED FOR ICY SPOTS ON AREA ROADS AND HIGHWAYS BY CHRISTMAS
EVENING. CHECK ROAD CONDITIONS BEFORE DEPARTING IF YOU MUST
TRAVEL. IF TRAVEL IS NECESSARY...DRIVE WITH EXTREME CAUTION. SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND ICE ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON
ELEVATED SURFACES. BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WILL BE THE FIRST
LOCATIONS WHERE ICY SPOTS MAY DEVELOP.

&&

$$

TXZ101>107-117>120-260600-
/O.EXT.KFWD.WW.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-121226T1500Z/
JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JACKSBORO...DECATUR...BRIDGEPORT...
DENTON...LEWISVILLE...FLOWER MOUND...THE COLONY...PLANO...
GREENVILLE...COMMERCE...COOPER...SULPHUR SPRINGS...WEATHERFORD...
BRIAR...FORT WORTH...ARLINGTON...DALLAS...ROCKWALL
354 PM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST
WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS EXTENDED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LIGHT SNOW THIS EVENING...SUBFREEZING
TEMPERATURES AND HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS ON SNOW COVERED
ROADS...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST
WEDNESDAY.

* TIMING...LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
  HOURS BEFORE ENDING AROUND MID EVENING. AREAS OF FREEZING
  DRIZZLE ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING THROUGH
  MIDNIGHT.

* LOCATION...THIS WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY STATEMENT IS FOR THE
  COUNTIES OF JACK...WISE...DENTON...COLLIN...HUNT...
  DELTA...HOPKINS... PARKER...TARRANT...DALLAS...ROCKWALL.

* MAIN IMPACT...2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL COVERING ROADS AND
  MAKING DRIVING HAZARDOUS.

* OTHER IMPACTS...NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER
  GUSTS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. THIS MAY RESULT IN
  VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS OF LESS THAN A HALF MILE. BRIDGES AND
  OVERPASSES WILL BE THE FIRST TO ICE OVER...BUT SOME SURFACE
  ROADS MAY BECOME ICY BY LATE AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE PREPARED FOR ICY SPOTS ON AREA ROADS AND HIGHWAYS BY CHRISTMAS
EVENING. CHECK ROAD CONDITIONS BEFORE DEPARTING IF YOU MUST
TRAVEL. IF TRAVEL IS NECESSARY...DRIVE WITH EXTREME CAUTION. SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND ICE ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON
ELEVATED SURFACES. BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WILL BE THE FIRST
LOCATIONS WHERE ICY SPOTS MAY DEVELOP.

&&

$$

TXZ100-115-116-260600-
/O.CON.KFWD.WW.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-121226T0600Z/
YOUNG-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GRAHAM...OLNEY...BRECKENRIDGE...
MINERAL WELLS
354 PM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT...

* TIMING...LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
  ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST.

* LOCATION...THIS WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY STATEMENT IS FOR THE
  COUNTIES OF YOUNG...STEPHENS...PALO PINTO.

* MAIN IMPACT...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES.

* OTHER IMPACTS...NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER
  GUSTS MAY PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. THIS MAY RESULT IN
  VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS OF LESS THAN A HALF MILE. BRIDGES AND
  OVERPASSES WILL BE THE FIRST TO ICE OVER...BUT SOME SURFACE
  ROADS MAY BECOME ICY BY LATE AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE PREPARED FOR ICY SPOTS ON AREA ROADS AND HIGHWAYS BY CHRISTMAS
EVENING. CHECK ROAD CONDITIONS BEFORE DEPARTING IF YOU MUST
TRAVEL. IF TRAVEL IS NECESSARY...DRIVE WITH EXTREME CAUTION. SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND ICE ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON
ELEVATED SURFACES. BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WILL BE THE FIRST
LOCATIONS WHERE ICY SPOTS MAY DEVELOP.

&&

$$
514 
WWUS44 KFWD 260016
WSWFWD

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
616 PM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LIGHT SNOW AND ICE DEVELOPING ON
AREA ROADWAYS IN SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES IS IN EFFECT FOR
LOCATIONS NORTH OF A LINE FROM JACKSBORO TO BURLESON TO CANTON...

TXZ091>095-260830-
/O.CAN.KFWD.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-121226T0600Z/
/O.EXT.KFWD.WW.Y.0002.121226T0016Z-121226T1500Z/
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOWIE...NOCONA...GAINESVILLE...
SHERMAN...DENISON...BONHAM...PARIS
616 PM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST
WEDNESDAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS CANCELLED THE
WINTER STORM WARNING HOWEVER A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT.

* TIMING...OVERNIGHT.

* LOCATION...THIS WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY STATEMENT IS FOR THE 
  COUNTIES OF MONTAGUE...COOKE...GRAYSON...FANNIN AND LAMAR. 

* MAIN IMPACT...LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT.
  IN PLUMMETING TEMPERATURES...WET ROADWAYS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
  ICY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT MAKING FOR DANGEROUS TRAVEL
  CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.

* OTHER IMPACTS...BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WILL BE THE FIRST TO ICE
  OVER...BUT SOME SURFACE ROADS MAY BECOME ICY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
  MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE PREPARED FOR ICY SPOTS ON AREA ROADS AND HIGHWAYS BY CHRISTMAS
EVENING. CHECK ROAD CONDITIONS BEFORE DEPARTING IF YOU MUST
TRAVEL. IF TRAVEL IS NECESSARY...DRIVE WITH EXTREME CAUTION. SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND ICE ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON
ELEVATED SURFACES. BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WILL BE THE FIRST
LOCATIONS WHERE ICY SPOTS MAY DEVELOP.

&&

$$

TXZ100-115-116-260130-
/O.CAN.KFWD.WW.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-121226T0600Z/
YOUNG-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GRAHAM...OLNEY...BRECKENRIDGE...
MINERAL WELLS
616 PM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS CANCELLED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. 

NO ADDITIONAL WINTRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ANY WET
ROADWAYS MAY DEVELOP ICY SPOTS...ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

$$

TXZ121>123-260830-
/O.EXT.KFWD.WW.Y.0002.121226T0016Z-121226T1500Z/
KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TERRELL...KAUFMAN...FORNEY...
WILLS POINT...CANTON...GRAND SALINE...VAN...EDGEWOOD...EMORY...
POINT...EAST TAWAKONI
616 PM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST
WEDNESDAY...

* TIMING...LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH MIDNIGHT. ANY
  WET ROADWAYS WILL BECOME ICY AS TEMPERATURES FALL WELL BELOW
  FREEZING LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

* LOCATION...THIS WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY STATEMENT IS FOR THE 
  COUNTIES OF KAUFMAN...VAN ZANDT AND RAINS. 

* MAIN IMPACT...LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT.
  IN PLUMMETING TEMPERATURES...WET ROADWAYS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
  ICY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT MAKING FOR DANGEROUS TRAVEL
  CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.

* OTHER IMPACTS...BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WILL BE THE FIRST TO ICE
  OVER...BUT SOME SURFACE ROADS MAY BECOME ICY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
  MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE PREPARED FOR ICY SPOTS ON AREA ROADS AND HIGHWAYS BY CHRISTMAS
EVENING. CHECK ROAD CONDITIONS BEFORE DEPARTING IF YOU MUST
TRAVEL. IF TRAVEL IS NECESSARY...DRIVE WITH EXTREME CAUTION. SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND ICE ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON
ELEVATED SURFACES. BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WILL BE THE FIRST
LOCATIONS WHERE ICY SPOTS MAY DEVELOP.

&&

$$

TXZ101>107-117>120-260830-
/O.CON.KFWD.WW.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-121226T1500Z/
JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JACKSBORO...DECATUR...BRIDGEPORT...
DENTON...LEWISVILLE...FLOWER MOUND...THE COLONY...PLANO...
GREENVILLE...COMMERCE...COOPER...SULPHUR SPRINGS...WEATHERFORD...
BRIAR...FORT WORTH...ARLINGTON...DALLAS...ROCKWALL
616 PM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST
WEDNESDAY...

* TIMING...LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
  ENDING AROUND MID EVENING. AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE ALSO
  POSSIBLE THIS EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

* LOCATION...THIS WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY STATEMENT IS FOR THE 
  COUNTIES OF JACK...WISE...DENTON...COLLIN...HUNT... DELTA... 
  HOPKINS... PARKER...TARRANT...DALLAS...ROCKWALL. 

* MAIN IMPACT...LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT.
  IN PLUMMETING TEMPERATURES...WET ROADWAYS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
  ICY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT MAKING FOR DANGEROUS TRAVEL
  CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.

* OTHER IMPACTS...BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WILL BE THE FIRST TO ICE
  OVER...BUT SOME SURFACE ROADS MAY BECOME ICY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
  MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE PREPARED FOR ICY SPOTS ON AREA ROADS AND HIGHWAYS BY CHRISTMAS
EVENING. CHECK ROAD CONDITIONS BEFORE DEPARTING IF YOU MUST
TRAVEL. IF TRAVEL IS NECESSARY...DRIVE WITH EXTREME CAUTION. SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND ICE ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON
ELEVATED SURFACES. BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WILL BE THE FIRST
LOCATIONS WHERE ICY SPOTS MAY DEVELOP.

&&

$$

CAVANAUGH

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this winter storm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Fort Worth, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before this winter storm warning went out at Dec 24, 11:50 PM CST, 3 hours 23 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 24, 11:50 PM CST, 3 hours 23 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1150 PM CST MON DEC 24 2012

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...THREAT FOR THUNDER OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN THE DFW METROPLEX TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WIDESPREAD LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION
AND MVFR STRATUS IS SPREADING NORTH INTO WACO. THE METROPLEX TAF
SITES WILL REMAIN VFR UNTIL THE PRECIPITATION INCREASES BY 08-09Z
BUT WACO WILL CONTINUE IN MVFR THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND MVFR CIGS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER
IS HIGHER AT WACO AND SOME SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND THE
WACO AREA AS WELL...WITH A THREAT FOR HAIL. LATEST GUIDANCES
SUGGEST THE SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD BECOME HEAVIER CLOSER TO
DAYBREAK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW GETS CLOSER TO THE REGION AND LIFT
INCREASES. THIS COULD RESULT IN TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TAF SITES DURING PERIODS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH A
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN THE DFW METROPLEX IN THE EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE COULD ALSO BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF SLEET MIXED
IN AS WELL BEFORE THE CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW. THE SNOW WILL LAST
FOR A FEW HOURS AND ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE. AT
THIS SAME TIME...A STRONG FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE METROPLEX
RESULTING IN VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS. THE WINDS COULD CAUSE
BLOWING SNOW THAT COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES. CONDITIONS OVERALL
SHOULD INCREASE IN THE EVENING HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
EAST...BUT THE STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

AT KACT...THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALL LIQUID...
ENDING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE AROUND
MIDDAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME FLURRIES BUT THE
POTENTIAL IS FAIRLY LOW.

CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE AT ALL SITES TUESDAY EVENING BUT THERE IS
A POTENTIAL THAT THE MVFR CIGS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM COULD HOLD IN
LONGER THAN IS IN THE CURRENT TAF FORECAST.

82/JLD

&&

.UPDATE...
WE HAVE ANALYZED THE 00Z UPPER AIR DATA AND HAVE WATCHED THE
SURFACE OBS CLOSELY FOR SIGNS OF ANY DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THEM
AND THE MODEL DATA. THE BIG THING THAT STANDS OUT ARE THAT THE
SURFACE LOW IN NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AT 6PM WAS ABOUT 80 MILES
FARTHER SOUTH THAN ALL OF THE MODELS HAD FORECAST 24 HOURS AGO.
WHEN DEALING WITH A SWINGING/DIGGING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...THE
SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN AND PRESSURE TENDENCIES OFFER ENORMOUS
CLUES ON THE FUTURE TRACK OF A POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY BEFORE
IT CLOSES OFF TO BECOME A FULL FLEDGED UPPER LOW. THE 3PM AND 6PM
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A LARGE REGION OF PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS
NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM. GIVEN THE
ORIENTATION OF THE PRESSURE FALLS AND LOCATION OF THE SURFACE
LOW...IT CAN BE DETERMINED WITHOUT EVEN LOOKING AT A FORECAST
MODEL THAT THE UPPER LOW HAS NOT FINISHED DIGGING SOUTH. THE BIG
QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH WILL THE UPPER LOW MAKE IT BEFORE IT
BEGINS TO SWING BACK TO THE NORTHEAST. AT THIS HOUR PRESSURE FALLS
CONTINUE IN THE REGION FROM LUBBOCK TO MIDLAND...WITH ANOTHER
PRESSURE FALL AREA DEVELOPING IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS. EXTRAPOLATING
SUGGESTS THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF LUBBOCK BY SUNRISE
AND TO NEAR WACO BY SUNSET. AS THE LOW APPROACHES WACO...A WARM
FRONT WILL BE ORGANIZING OUT OF THE WEAK STATIONARY FRONT
CURRENTLY ANALYZED FROM SAN ANTONIO TO HOUSTON. BAROCLINIC QG
THEORY SUGGESTS THAT ONCE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION BEGINS IN
EARNEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY MORNING...IT WILL INDUCE HEIGHT
RISES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF OUR UPPER LOW WHICH WILL CAUSE THE LOW
TO CLOSE OFF AND FINISH DIGGING SOUTH...AND START ITS GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTHEAST. TOMORROW EVENING I WOULD EXPECT THE LOW TO
TRACK FROM NEAR WACO TO NEAR SHREVEPORT. IN SUMMARY THE USUAL
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE
TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW. OUR EXPECTATIONS FOR THE TRACK OF THE LOW
ALIGN WELL WITH THE RAP FORECAST WHICH IS TO THE SOUTH OF ALL
OTHER MODELS...SO WE WILL USE THE RAP HEAVILY.

OUR FORECAST HAS BEEN ON THE SOUTHERLY SIDE AND SNOWIER SIDE OF
THE MODEL GUIDANCE. SO ALTHOUGH WE ARE SEEING AN EVEN MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK COME TO FRUITION...THIS DOES NOT NECESSARILY
MEAN THE FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS NEED TO BE AMENDED MUCH. THIS IS IN
PART DUE TO THE DIFFICULTY IN GETTING THE COLDER/SUBFREEZING AIR
FARTHER SOUTH BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS. THE EXCEPTION IS THE
NORTHWEST ZONES WHERE THE MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK SUGGESTS MORE
PRECIP WILL FALL IN SUBFREEZING AIR. DUE TO THE TERRAIN EFFECTS
HERE...COLD AIR HAS AN EASY TIME GETTING INTO OUR NORTHWEST ZONES
WHEN WE HAVE A NORTH/NORTHEAST SURFACE WIND. HAVE EXPANDED THE
SNOW ADVISORY TO INCLUDE YOUNG/JACK/WISE COUNTIES...AND HAVE
INCREASED SNOW TOTALS TO THE 2-4 INCH RANGE FROM BOWIE TO SHERMAN.

THE NORTHEAST ZONES LIKELY WONT SWITCH TO SNOW UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON...AS COLD AIR WILL HAVE TROUBLE MOVING IN AT THE SURFACE
DUE TO THE LEE SHADOW WARMING EFFECT OF THE OZARK PLATEAU. MOST OF
THE SNOW THAT OCCURS THERE WILL BE AFTER 6 PM AND WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON WHETHER MESOSCALE BANDING CAN SET UP IN THE WAKE OF
THE UPPER LOW. THE NEW NAM HAS FINALLY FORECAST SOME SIGNIFICANT
BANDING TO OCCUR...THUS WILL LEAVE THE ADVISORY ALONE IN THIS
AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE LOWER IN THE NORTHEAST ZONES FOR
2+ INCHES OF SNOW.

FARTHER TO THE SOUTH OF THE ADVISORY...FOR THE I-20 CORRIDOR AND
INCLUDING THE METROPLEX...THERE IS NOW HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT SNOW
WILL OCCUR. HOWEVER ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT WILL STILL BE A
BRIEF 1-3 HOUR EVENT WITH NOT ENOUGH TIME TO GET ACCUMULATIONS
OVER AN INCH. IT MUST BE STRESSED THAT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
INTO THE 20S BY SUNSET...ANY APPRECIABLE MOISTURE REMAINING ON
BRIDGES...OVERPASSES AND EVEN SURFACE STREETS WILL LIKELY RE-
FREEZE INTO BLACK ICE. ALTHOUGH WE ARE USING 1+ INCH AS CRITERIA
FOR THE COUNTIES IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AREA...WE MAY
EXPAND THE ADVISORY SOUTH INTO THE METROPLEX OVERNIGHT DUE SOLELY
TO TRAVEL IMPACTS.

FINALLY CONCERNING THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY
TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW...THIS MEANS THERE IS LESS OF A CHANCE OF THE
WARM FRONT MAKING IT INTO THE SOUTHEAST CWA TONIGHT AS IT WILL
LIKELY STAY SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER 3 AM...WITH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY HIGH ENOUGH FOR A FEW SEVERE HAIL STORMS SOUTH OF I-20.
HAVE TONED DOWN THE DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADO THREAT FROM OUR
PRODUCTS...BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE HAIL STORMS POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.

TR.92

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CST MON DEC 24 2012/
OUR CHRISTMAS DAY/NIGHT WINTER STORM IS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE
INTERIOR WEST THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND
SHOULD DEVELOP A CLOSED CIRCULATION AS IT ENTERS THE SOUTHWESTERN
PANHANDLE BY DAYBREAK CHRISTMAS. ALTHOUGH TODAY/S MODEL SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHT TIMING AND TRACKING DIFFERENCES...THE
AGREEMENT AND CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF HAVE BEEN
AND CONTINUE TO BE THE PREFERRED SOLUTION FOR THIS STORM. THE
500MB CENTER SHOULD TRACK ALONG I-20 BETWEEN ABILENE AND DFW THEN
JUST SOUTH OF I-30 FROM DFW TO TEXARKANA. IF THE TRACK IS 30 MILES
SOUTH OR NORTH OF OUR FORECAST THEN IMPACTS WILL ALSO SHIFT ACCORDINGLY.

LAST NIGHTS FRONT IS LOCATED FROM NORTH OF HOUSTON TO NEAR SAN ANTONIO
TO AROUND FORT STOCKTON. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL BEGIN OVERNIGHT
ALONG THIS FRONT AND TRACK EAST ALONG THE FRONT. WE ARE EXPECTING
A WARM FRONT TO LIFT THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE EAST-CENTRAL COUNTIES EARLY CHRISTMAS
MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST. CONVECTION WILL BEGIN
OVERNIGHT AS THE ELEVATED WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTHWARD. STRONG
UPPER DYNAMICS AND MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO SOME STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE AND AFTER DAYBREAK. HAIL WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT BUT DAMAGING WIND CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. AS FOR TORNADOES...STORMS MOVING OVER THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL EXPERIENCE AN INCREASE IN STORM-RELATIVE
HELICITY AND BRIEF TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT SHOULD MOVE INTO EAST TEXAS BY LATE MORNING.

COLD ARCTIC AIR HAS BEEN BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS AND WILL SURGE INTO NORTH TEXAS BEHIND THE EXITING
SURFACE LOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SNOW WEST
TO EAST ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 FROM LATE MORNING (NW) THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON (NE). WE STILL EXPECT 1-3 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN
TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS GENERALLY EAST OF A
SHERMAN TO GREENVILLE LINE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A BAND OF
HEAVIER SNOW OCCURRED OVER THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES AROUND PARIS
WHERE THE 700MB FRONTOGENESIS IS MORE LIKELY TO ENHANCE THE
WRAP-AROUND BANDING. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO END OVER THE
NORTHEAST BY MIDNIGHT. SNOW ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS
COULD TOTAL 4-8 INCHES...AND TRAVEL NORTH OF THE RED RIVER OR INTO
WESTERN ARKANSAS WILL BE TREACHEROUS CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS
NORTH WINDS BLOW 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40MPH. BLOWING SNOW WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WHERE SNOW HAS
OCCURRED. IT WILL BE BITTERLY COLD ON CHRISTMAS NIGHT WITH WIND
CHILLS IN THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. ALSO ANY MOISTURE
REMAINING ON ROADWAYS CHRISTMAS EVENING WILL FREEZE OVERNIGHT SO
WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTERS NEED TO BE ALERT FOR ICY SPOTS.

COLD AND DRY FOR WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES MODERATE ON THURSDAY AS
WINDS RETURN SOUTH. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL NOT BE AS
COLD...BUT WILL KEEP HIGHS/LOWS BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

75

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  42  46  21  35  21 /  50  70  10   5   5
WACO, TX              43  53  23  42  18 /  60  50  10   5   5
PARIS, TX             40  43  21  31  15 /  50  80  40  10   5
DENTON, TX            38  42  20  31  17 /  50  80  10   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          41  43  22  31  16 /  50  80  20  10   5
DALLAS, TX            43  46  22  36  23 /  50  70  10   5   5
TERRELL, TX           43  48  24  35  18 /  50  80  20  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         44  52  23  40  21 /  60  70  10   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            47  56  23  43  20 /  70  40  10   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     38  41  17  35  18 /  50  60  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM CST TUESDAY FOR
TXZ091>095-100>107.

&&

82/92
Hazardous weather outlook, Dec 24, 7:43 PM CST, 7 hours 30 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
743 PM CST MON DEC 24 2012

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-260145-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
743 PM CST MON DEC 24 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
CONTAINING LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-20.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH NOON ON
CHRISTMAS DAY. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SOUTH OF I-20 WILL END
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS. HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT...BUT DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE
POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST OF A TEMPLE TO ATHENS LINE.

A WINTER STORM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS CHRISTMAS
DAY. RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
I-20 CORRIDOR. THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL
OCCUR NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20...WITH AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 380
SEEING THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 1
TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF A GRAHAM...DENTON...SULPHUR
SPRINGS LINE.

IN ADDITION TO THE POSSIBLE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE NORTH...VERY
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL OCCUR
CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES.
WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS ARE EXPECTED
CHRISTMAS NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ICY ROADS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE CHRISTMAS NIGHT AND ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WHERE ANY
MOISTURE REFREEZES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED SOUTH AND EAST OF A
LAMPASAS...TO DALLAS...TO CANTON LINE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Dec 25, 1:38 AM CST, 1 hour 35 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
138 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

TXZ103-118-119-250800-
DALLAS TX-DENTON TX-TARRANT TX-
138 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  WESTERN DALLAS COUNTY
  SOUTHERN DENTON COUNTY
  TARRANT COUNTY

AT 137 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 2 MILES NORTH OF FORT WORTH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
30 MPH. ANOTHER STRONG STORM WAS NEAR ARLINGTON ALSO MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

PEA-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THESE
STORMS AS THEY MOVE ACROSS NORTH FORT WORTH AND WESTERN DALLAS.

LAT...LON 3307 9684 3256 9696 3271 9751 3299 9742
      3299 9740 3305 9740 3316 9736
TIME...MOT...LOC 0737Z 214DEG 25KT 3282 9731
Special weather statement, Dec 25, 1:53 AM CST, 1 hour 20 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
153 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

TXZ119-120-250830-
DALLAS TX-ROCKWALL TX-
153 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  EASTERN DALLAS COUNTY
  ROCKWALL COUNTY

AT 154 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER HUTCHINS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE BALCH SPRINGS...FATE...
GARLAND...HEATH...HUTCHINS...MESQUITE...ROCKWALL...ROWLETT...ROYSE
CITY...SACHSE...SUNNYVALE AND WILMER.

PENNY-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3298 9630 3296 9630 3281 9643 3281 9652
      3271 9652 3255 9666 3267 9682 3299 9667
TIME...MOT...LOC 0754Z 220DEG 39KT 3268 9667

92
Special weather statement, Dec 25, 3:01 AM CST, 12 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
301 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

TXZ105-250930-
HUNT TX-
301 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHERN HUNT COUNTY

AT 301 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES WEST OF GREENVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
45 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE CAMPBELL...COMMERCE AND
GREENVILLE.

NICKEL-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3305 9587 3301 9611 3315 9625 3336 9611
      3336 9586
TIME...MOT...LOC 0901Z 230DEG 39KT 3316 9612

The office that day

Everything else NWS Fort Worth, TX issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Dec 25, 1:38 AM CSTSpecial Weather StatementFWDTarrant22 min
Dec 25, 1:53 AM CSTSpecial Weather StatementFWDRockwall37 min
Dec 25, 3:01 AM CSTSpecial Weather StatementFWDHunt29 min
Dec 25, 3:15 AM CSTWind AdvisoryFWDAnderson, Bell, Bosque, Collin, Comanche, Cooke and 40 more18 hr
Dec 25, 4:02 AM CSTSpecial Weather StatementFWDPalo Pinto28 min
Dec 25, 4:33 AM CSTSpecial Weather StatementFWDHood27 min
Dec 25, 4:38 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFWDHood, Parker37 min
Dec 25, 4:46 AM CSTSpecial Weather StatementFWDDenton29 min
Dec 25, 4:53 AM CSTSpecial Weather StatementFWDErath, Palo Pinto37 min
Dec 25, 5:15 AM CSTSpecial Weather StatementFWDComanche30 min
Dec 25, 5:18 AM CSTSpecial Weather StatementFWDEllis27 min
Dec 25, 5:25 AM CSTSpecial Weather StatementFWDTarrant35 min
Dec 25, 5:38 AM CSTSpecial Weather StatementFWDErath37 min
Dec 25, 5:42 AM CSTSpecial Weather StatementFWDHood, Parker33 min
Dec 25, 5:44 AM CSTSpecial Weather StatementFWDWise31 min
Dec 25, 5:55 AM CSTSpecial Weather StatementFWDNavarro35 min
Dec 25, 5:58 AM CSTSpecial Weather StatementFWDKaufman32 min
Dec 25, 6:02 AM CSTSpecial Weather StatementFWDHill28 min
Dec 25, 6:25 AM CSTSpecial Weather StatementFWDRobertson35 min
Dec 25, 6:31 AM CSTSpecial Weather StatementFWDSomervell29 min
Dec 25, 6:49 AM CSTSpecial Weather StatementFWDCoryell26 min
Dec 25, 6:51 AM CSTSpecial Weather StatementFWDFalls24 min
Dec 25, 6:55 AM CSTSpecial Weather StatementFWDRobertson35 min
Dec 25, 7:20 AM CSTSpecial Weather StatementFWDLimestone25 min
Dec 25, 7:27 AM CSTSpecial Weather StatementFWDLeon33 min
Dec 25, 7:31 AM CSTSpecial Weather StatementFWDCherokee29 min
Dec 25, 7:45 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFWDLeon45 min
Dec 25, 8:06 AM CSTSpecial Weather StatementFWDAnderson24 min
Dec 25, 8:14 AM CSTSpecial Weather StatementFWDFalls, Limestone, Navarro, Robertson31 min
Dec 25, 8:24 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFWDAnderson51 min
Dec 25, 9:02 AM CSTSpecial Weather StatementFWDLeon28 min

Nearby

Winter Storm Warnings in Texas, 2012Every winter storm warning in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.