Severe Thunderstorm Warning 318, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
537 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

.AVIATION...
ONGOING AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PROBLEMATIC FOR MORNING
OPERATIONS. RAPID REFRESH MODELS SHOW CAPE DECREASING RAPIDLY
AFTER 14Z...8AM...AND EXPECT THUNDER TO MOVE ON EAST BY THAT TIME
THOUGH SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE.

STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH METROPLEX ABOUT NOON...AND RAPID
COOL DOWN WILL FORCE PRECIP CHANGEOVER TO SNOW BEFORE 2 PM. SNOW
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID EVENING...WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS UP
TO 35KT PRODUCING BLOWING SNOW AS WELL. TEMPERATURE WILL DROP
BELOW FREEZING MID AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD REMAIN BELOW FREEZING
THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY SO ANY STANDING WATER WILL TURN TO ICE.
THERE MAY BE BRIEF RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW OR SLEET DURING THE
CHANGEOVER PERIOD BUT THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST LONG.

AT WACO...EXPECT MORNING THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...AND THEN AFTER
MID MORNING...RAIN. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE PRECIP ENDS. NO SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO ACCUMULATE.     84

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012/
THE FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. WE
STILL ANTICIPATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WARM FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. THEREFORE...WE WILL LEAVE THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM.

THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE UPPER LOW HAS BEEN TRACKING FURTHER SOUTH THAN
EARLIER RUNS INDICATED. THIS IS NOT SURPRISING BASED ON SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS MUCH OF WEST TEXAS. OUR CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ROUGHLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE SNOW LINE MOVING FURTHER SOUTH
THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THEREFORE...WE HAVE DECIDED TO EXPAND THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ONE ROW OF COUNTIES SOUTH AND MENTION
LIGHT SNOW OR A RAIN SNOW MIX INTO ALL BUT THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
OF NORTH TEXAS BY THIS EVENING. THE DEEPER AND SLOWER TRACK OF THE
UPPER LOW WILL ALSO RESULT IN A LONGER DURATION OF SNOW ALONG THE
RED RIVER WITH APPRECIABLE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LIKELY. THEREFORE...WE
HAVE UPGRADED THE ADVISORY TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE RED
RIVER COUNTIES. WE EXPECT A MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET TO BEGIN IN THE
NORTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING WITH A CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW FROM
WEST TO EAST BEGINNING AROUND MIDDAY. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
BETWEEN 4 AND 6 ALONG THE RED RIVER...2 TO 4 INCHES NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR AND 1 TO 2 INCHES ALONG THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR...INCLUDING THE IMMEDIATE METROPLEX. ALTHOUGH SNOW
AMOUNTS OUTSIDE OF THE WINTER STORM WARNING AREA WILL BE
LIGHT...TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE VERY LIKELY IN THE ADVISORY AREA...
ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING WHEN TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 20S. TO COMPLICATE MATTERS EVEN MORE...A VERY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOME BLOWING SNOW. IT DOES NOT
APPEAR THAT WE WILL REACH BLIZZARD WARNING CRITERIA WHICH IS
SUSTAINED OR FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35 MPH FOR 3 HOURS OR MORE. WE WILL
REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IN ALL COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LIGHT SNOW WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

AFTER A VERY COLD NIGHT TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND 20S
AND WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE
TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S ON WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
COLD AGAIN WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND 20S BUT WIND CHILLS
SHOULD BE HIGHER THAN TONIGHT AS THE WIND BECOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY.

A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL SET UP ON THURSDAY AS ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MOST OF THE ENERGY
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION...BUT SOME
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY WHEN A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE STATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND
RESULT IN A SLIGHT WARMUP. THE RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST
OF THE REGION ON MONDAY AS A DEEP TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM COULD BE OUR NEXT BIG PRECIPITATION MAKER
THE FIRST DAYS OF THE NEW YEAR.  79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  45  18  34  22  49 / 100  30   5   5   5
WACO, TX              54  21  42  21  54 /  60  10   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             44  17  33  20  43 / 100  50  10   5   5
DENTON, TX            40  18  30  17  48 / 100  30   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          43  20  33  18  44 / 100  30  10   5   5
DALLAS, TX            46  20  32  24  48 / 100  30   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           48  21  33  21  48 / 100  30  10   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         47  22  38  24  53 /  70  10   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            54  21  42  23  55 /  60  10   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     39  16  35  18  51 /  80  10   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT FOR TXZ100>107-115>120.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT FOR TXZ091>095.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
353 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-261000-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
353 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR
COUNTIES ALONG THE RED RIVER. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FROM 9 AM THROUGH MIDNIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM
BRECKENRIDGE TO ARLINGTON TO SULPHUR SPRINGS.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS THIS
MORNING...DIMINISHING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY THIS AFTERNOON.
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN
SEVERE THREATS.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO START IN THE NORTHWEST MID MORNING EXTENDING
EASTWARD DURING THE DAY. AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 4 TO 6 INCHES
NEAR THE RED RIVER TO 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE ADVISORY AREA. IN ADDITION...LIGHT AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE AS FAR
SOUTH AS A LINE FROM GOLDTHWAITE TO WACO TO ATHENS. SNOW WILL
LINGER AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE NORTHEAST.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S WILL DROP WIND
CHILLS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BEFORE SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
655 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

TXZ161-175-251330-
LIMESTONE TX-ROBERTSON TX-
655 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  EASTERN LIMESTONE COUNTY
  NORTHERN ROBERTSON COUNTY

AT 655 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 8 MILES NORTH OF FRANKLIN...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 PH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE BREMOND...FRANKLIN AND
GROESBECK.

NICKEL-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THESE
STORMS.

LAT...LON 3101 9648 3109 9681 3113 9679 3122 9660
      3133 9667 3171 9644 3142 9624 3137 9632
      3129 9633 3127 9631
TIME...MOT...LOC 1255Z 210DEG 34KT 3119 9656

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
720 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

TXZ160-161-251345-
FALLS TX-LIMESTONE TX-
720 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTH CENTRAL FALLS COUNTY
  CENTRAL LIMESTONE COUNTY

AT 720 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER MARLIN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE MARLIN AND MIDWAY.

NICKEL-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3131 9700 3151 9684 3152 9681 3154 9681
      3156 9679 3163 9664 3148 9661 3124 9688
TIME...MOT...LOC 1320Z 216DEG 35KT 3134 9688

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
727 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

TXZ162-175-251400-
LEON TX-ROBERTSON TX-
727 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  CENTRAL LEON COUNTY
  NORTHEASTERN ROBERTSON COUNTY

AT 727 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 24 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GROESBECK...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE BUFFALO.

NICKEL-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3135 9587 3115 9630 3112 9628 3112 9637
      3115 9643 3131 9642 3136 9631 3147 9612
      3152 9600
TIME...MOT...LOC 1327Z 235DEG 32KT 3123 9630

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
731 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

TXZ148-251400-
ANDERSON TX-
731 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN ANDERSON COUNTY

AT 731 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 16 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PALESTINE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3157 9534 3158 9538 3157 9538 3155 9553
      3173 9550 3184 9542 3179 9538 3177 9539
      3175 9536 3174 9536 3174 9534 3167 9527
TIME...MOT...LOC 1331Z 206DEG 25KT 3160 9545

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