Special Weather Statement, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
144 PM CDT SUN JUL 15 2012

.DISCUSSION...

EARLY AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED THAT A WEAK
MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA...MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD. EARLY AFTERNOON
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUED TO DEPICT AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AREA RADARS SHOW THAT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED OVER AREAS SOUTHWEST OF THE DFW
METROPLEX...WHILE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED
ELSEWHERE.

THROUGH TONIGHT...ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET. LOCALLY CALCULATED CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
INDICATE THAT THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY
2000 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE WITH 10 TO 15 KTS OF 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR. IN GENERAL THIS SUPPORTS A SINGLE TO MULTI-CELLULAR STORM
MODE WITH RAPIDLY FLUCTUATING INTENSITY. MICROBURST WIND DAMAGE
LOOKS TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH 60 MPH OR GREATER WIND GUSTS
LIKELY WITH ANY COLLAPSING THUNDERSTORM CORE THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO PERSIST INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...BUT DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AFTER SUNSET. MOST
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE ACROSS NORTH TX AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE UPPER LOW TO OUR
WEST WILL BE A BIT SLOWER TO MOVE SOUTHWEST AWAY FROM NORTH TX
THAN THEY HAD THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. WITH THE UPPER LOW SITUATED
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS
EXPECTED TO BE WEAK OVER NORTH TX...BUT MOST IMPORTANTLY IT WILL
HOLD OFF THE ONSET OF UPPER RIDGING UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. WITH A SIMILAR THERMODYNAMIC AIRMASS OVER NORTH TX
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN LIKELY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE
DAY. ADDED 30 POPS OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FOR
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND MAINTAINED 20 POPS ELSEWHERE. PLACED HIGHER
POPS OUT WEST AS THESE COUNTIES WILL BE AFFECTED BY BETTER LARGE
SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW. FOR TUESDAY ONLY
MENTIONED 20 POPS FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE
35/35E CORRIDOR AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY OFF
TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...IN GENERAL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
INDICATE THAT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST...UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SPREAD LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE OVER NORTH TX FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE OFF TO OUR
NORTH...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SOME AFTERNOON ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME
PROBABILITIES REMAIN TO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE WORDED FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN GENERAL...WITHOUT RAINFALL...HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CLIMB BACK TOWARDS THE 100
DEGREE MARK FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

CAVANAUGH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  76  94  77  96  78 /  20  20  10  20  10
WACO, TX              75  94  77  95  76 /  20  20  10  20  10
PARIS, TX             71  93  73  95  73 /  20  20  10  10  10
DENTON, TX            75  94  75  96  76 /  20  20  10  20  10
MCKINNEY, TX          73  94  74  95  74 /  20  20  10  10  10
DALLAS, TX            76  95  78  96  78 /  20  20  10  20  10
TERRELL, TX           73  93  74  95  74 /  20  20  10  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         74  93  75  94  75 /  20  20  10  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            73  94  74  95  75 /  20  20  10  20  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     72  95  73  97  72 /  20  30  10  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
250 PM CDT SUN JUL 15 2012

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-161215-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
250 PM CDT SUN JUL 15 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS
ALL OF NORTH TEXAS. THREATS INCLUDE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...STRONG
DOWNBURST WINDS...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOONS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES WEST OF INTERSTATE 35/35 EAST.
LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH THE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THROUGH THIS EVENING.

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