Special Weather Statement, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
646 PM CDT SAT JUL 14 2012

.AVIATION...
A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM 30 MILES N OF KGLE /GAINESVILLE/
TO 20 MILES N OF KGVT /GREENVILLE/ WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWEST
AT 20 TO 25 MPH. OUTFLOW FROM THESE STORMS SHOULD APPROACH THE
METROPLEX TAF SITES AROUND 02Z. THE STORMS THEMSELVES SHOULD BE
WEAKENING AT THAT POINT...SO HAVE JUST PLACED VCTS IN THE TAFS FOR
THE 02 TO 04Z TIME PERIOD IN THE METROPLEX TAFS. WINDS SHOULD COME
BACK AROUND TO THE EAST AROUND/SHORTLY AFTER 04Z.

58

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT SAT JUL 14 2012/

12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS CONTINUED TO INDICATE A 250 MB SHEAR AXIS
EXTENDING FROM WESTERN MO SOUTH THROUGH EAST TX. VISIBLE AND
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUE TO DEPICT A WELL DEFINED
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALONG THE TX/LA BORDER. WHILE THIS
CIRCULATION WAS NOT DISCERNABLE FROM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OR 250
MB STREAMLINES IT SHOWED UP NICELY ON 12Z 500 AND 700 MB ANALYSIS.
REGIONAL RADARS INDICATE THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPED WITHIN THIS MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION. REGIONAL
RADARS ALSO DEPICT A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN OK
MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE RED RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. THE EASTERN
OK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SEEMS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL OK EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. BECAUSE THIS FEATURE LIES ON
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE 250 MB SHEAR AXIS...EXPECT THAT IT
WILL CONTINUE SOUTH INTO NORTH TX THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...WENT AHEAD AND PLACED SOME 20 TO 30 POPS IN ALONG THE
RED RIVER COUNTIES OF THE CWA THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MOVING SOUTHWEST OUT OF OKLAHOMA. IF THIS
ACTIVITY IS ACTUALLY ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...IT SEEMS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE SOUTHEAST OVER THE RED RIVER THIS EVENING.
THINK THAT THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL DRASTICALLY REDUCE THE
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF STORMS AS THEY CROSS THE RED RIVER...IF
THEY DONT DISSIPATE ALL TOGETHER. KEPT 20 POPS THE FORECAST EAST
OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR AXIS ALOFT WILL MOVE WEST OVER NORTH TX BY
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. WITH THE ADDITIONAL CONSIDERATION OF THE
SOUTHWARD MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION
LIKELY TO MOVE WEST WITH THE SHEAR AXIS...CANT RULE OUT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE AXIS OF BEST MOISTURE
TONIGHT.

SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE POSITIONED
JUST WEST OF THE CWA BY TOMORROW MORNING. THIS MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW SUIT BUT WILL LIKELY LAG BEHIND
IN TIMING. THE CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE IS TO HAVE THIS MID-LEVEL LOW
OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. TO THE EAST OF THIS LOW...PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB ABOVE 1.75 INCHES AND WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO
BE PRESENT TO THE EAST OF THE SHEAR AXIS ALOFT. THEREFORE THINK
THAT SCATTERED...UNORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY
OVER MUCH OF NORTH TX DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY
TOMORROW. WENT AHEAD AND MAINTAINED 30 POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA
AS COVERAGE IS LIKELY GOING TO BE SIMILAR TO WHAT IT WAS NEAR THE
MID-LEVEL LOW THIS AFTERNOON. PRIMARILY DUE TO THE LACK STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT
EXPECTED. PULSE TYPE SINGLE CELL SEVERE STORMS ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE...BUT OUTSIDE OF A LOCALIZED MICROBURST THREAT...THE
OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS LOOKS TO REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME.
STORMS THAT MOVE OVER THE SAME LOCATION MULTIPLE TIMES MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLOODING AS STORMS WILL
PROBABLY BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS WITH PWATS RANGING
BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2.00 INCHES. MOST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.

MONDAY...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL SHEAR
AXIS AND MID-LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAVE NORTH TX ESSENTIALLY UNDER NEUTRAL LARGE
SCALE FORCING AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS TOO FAR EAST TO
SPREAD SIGNIFICANT FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED...STRONGLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TX MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ONCE AGAIN DO NOT EXPECT ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.

REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WHILE MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...ALL MODELS
INDICATE NORTH TX WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER RIDGING BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IF THE RIDGE REMAINS WEAK THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER IF RIDGING BUILDS IN INTENSITY
THROUGH THE WEEK STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE WILL
EVENTUALLY EAT AWAY AT THE DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE MID-LEVELS DOWN
TOWARDS THE SURFACE MAKING AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MUCH
LESS LIKELY. EITHER WAY...WILL NOT MENTION STORMS IN THE WORDED
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AT THIS TIME AS THE MOST
PROMINENT FEATURE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER PATTERN...THE UPPER
RIDGE...STRONGLY FAVORS A DRY VS. WET FORECAST. ASSUMING RAIN
HOLDS OFF FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
CLIMB THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...TOPPING OUT NEAR 100 DEGREES BY
FRIDAY.

CAVANAUGH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  75  93  76  94  77 /  30  30  20  20  10
WACO, TX              73  93  74  94  76 /  10  30  20  20  10
PARIS, TX             72  90  73  94  73 /  30  30  20  20  10
DENTON, TX            73  92  74  94  76 /  30  30  20  20  10
MCKINNEY, TX          73  91  74  94  74 /  30  30  20  20  10
DALLAS, TX            76  93  77  95  77 /  30  30  20  20  10
TERRELL, TX           73  92  74  94  74 /  30  30  20  20  10
CORSICANA, TX         73  92  74  94  75 /  20  30  20  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            71  93  73  94  74 /  20  30  20  20  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     71  93  72  95  72 /  10  30  20  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

58/75

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
639 PM CDT SAT JUL 14 2012

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-151216-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
639 PM CDT SAT JUL 14 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT GENERALLY EAST OF A BOWIE TO
STEPHENVILLE TO GOLDTHWAITE LINE. A FEW STORMS WILL BECOME STRONG
WITH GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN....AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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