Special Weather Statement, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
253 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012

.DISCUSSION...
A PATTERN CHANGE IS NOW UNDERWAY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AS PLUME OF
RICH MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES IS
MOVING IN FROM THE EAST. CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORTEX IS SEEN ON
RADAR AND SATELLITE LOOPS SPINNING NEAR SHREVEPORT...AND IS ALSO
HEADING WESTWARD. THE MCV APPEARS TO BE RESPONSIBLE FOR ENHANCING
LIFT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES WHERE CONVECTION HAS INCREASED
IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH. A SOUTHWEST MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL
HELP PROPEL CONVECTION INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES DURING THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. MAIN THREAT WITH STORMS IS
HEAVY TROPICAL DOWNPOURS AND DAMAGING WINDS FROM MICROBURSTS.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE GFS IS VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT...BUT HAS
LITTLE SUPPORT FROM OTHER MODELS. HOWEVER THIS DOES SEEM PLAUSIBLE
BECAUSE ABOVE 800MB THE AIRMASS WILL BE NEARLY SATURATED AND
CONTAIN MODEST AMOUNTS OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY. ALSO GIVEN THE
LIGHT WIND FIELDS THROUGH THE COLUMN...THE MCV TO OUR EAST WILL
LIKELY HOLD TOGETHER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER THE GFS
MAY BE SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND OVERDOING RAIN
COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS. BUT I DO BELIEVE WE WILL SEE A REDEVELOPMENT
OF WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
WILL KEEP TIMING OF POPS GENERIC TO COVER BOTH EARLY EVENING
STORMS AND POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT.
LOWS MAY BE WARMER THAN FORECAST DUE TO INCREASING MID CLOUDS AND
WARM LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES...BUT RAIN COOLED AIR MAY WIN OUT.

BY TOMORROW PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE BETWEEN 2 AND 2.2 INCHES
ACROSS THE AREA. HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN POCKETS OF INSTABILITY
AND EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY. TEMPERATURES MAY BE HELD BACK A BIT DUE TO THE INCREASED
MID LEVEL CLOUDS TOMORROW BUT GIVEN THE WARM AIR ALREADY IN PLACE
IN THE LOW LEVELS ONLY A COUPLE OF HOURS OF SUN WOULD RESULT IN
TEMPS IN THE MID 90S.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND
SHOULD BECOME DRAPED ALONG A LINE FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA TO CENTRAL
TEXAS. THIS FEATURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK BUT WILL BE
SUBTLE. IT SHOULD PROVIDE SLIGHTLY BETTER AND MORE ORGANIZED LIFT
ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. THE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE WILL ALSO REMAIN IN PLACE...AND THUS SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ALTHOUGH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME LOCATIONS RECEIVING
MORE THAN 3 INCHES...THESE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE ISOLATED...AND
THERE WILL BE A FEW LOCATIONS THAT SEE LITTLE RAIN AS WELL. LIFT
IS JUST NOT ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN DEEP CONVECTION IN ONE
SPOT FOR SEVERAL HOURS AND LOW LEVEL FLOW IS TOO WEAK TO PROVIDE
AMPLE MOISTURE ADVECTION FOR A WIDESPREAD FLOOD THREAT. AGAIN
WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS AND POPS WILL REMAIN BROAD BRUSHED ACROSS SEVERAL PERIODS.

AS THE UPPER HIGH THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
BUILDS WESTWARD...NORTHERLY FLOW AT ALL LEVELS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS BY MIDWEEK. THIS SHOULD BRING DRIER AIR IN FROM THE
NORTH BY MID-LATE WEEK...HOWEVER THE PUSH LOOKS A LITTLE WEAKER IN
THE MODELS TODAY. HAVE EXTENDED POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA INTO
THURSDAY...AND KEPT LOW POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH INTO FRIDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE LOW 90S THIS WEEK IN RESPONSE TO
THE INCREASED CLOUDS/RAIN AND LOWER HEIGHTS. LOWS WILL REMAIN IN
THE LOW-MID 70S THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

TR.92

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  78  96  77  93  77 /  40  30  30  40  30
WACO, TX              75  95  75  92  74 /  30  30  30  40  30
PARIS, TX             74  94  74  92  74 /  30  30  30  40  30
DENTON, TX            76  96  74  92  74 /  40  30  30  40  30
MCKINNEY, TX          75  95  74  92  74 /  40  30  30  40  30
DALLAS, TX            78  96  77  93  77 /  40  30  30  40  30
TERRELL, TX           76  94  75  92  74 /  30  40  30  40  30
CORSICANA, TX         76  93  75  92  75 /  40  40  30  50  30
TEMPLE, TX            74  94  74  91  74 /  30  30  30  40  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     73  95  73  93  72 /  20  20  30  30  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
323 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-081130-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
323 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS
THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING EAST OF A
BOWIE...GRANBURY...KILLEEN LINE. STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET. OTHERWISE...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY SOME OF THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE SUNDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS
SOUTHEAST OF A GOLDTHWAITE...HILLSBORO...ATHENS LINE FRIDAY.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SUNDAY
WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF A
GAINESVILLE TO WEATHERFORD TO TEMPLE LINE THROUGH SUNSET.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
524 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012

TXZ147-148-162-072300-
FREESTONE TX-LEON TX-ANDERSON TX-
524 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  EAST CENTRAL FREESTONE COUNTY
  SOUTH CENTRAL ANDERSON COUNTY
  NORTHEASTERN LEON COUNTY

AT 524 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTH OF PALESTINE...MOVING WEST AT 15
MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE PALESTINE.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...PEA-SIZED
HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3136 9594 3173 9599 3177 9562 3160 9557
TIME...MOT...LOC 2224Z 078DEG 14KT 3167 9570

92

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
532 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012

TXZ116-130>133-144-145-072300-
ERATH TX-HILL TX-HOOD TX-JOHNSON TX-PALO PINTO TX-SOMERVELL TX-
BOSQUE TX-
532 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHERN BOSQUE COUNTY
  NORTHEASTERN ERATH COUNTY
  NORTHERN HILL COUNTY
  HOOD COUNTY
  SOUTHWESTERN JOHNSON COUNTY
  PALO PINTO COUNTY
  SOMERVELL COUNTY

AT 530 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALONG A LINE FROM MINERAL WELLS TO GRANBURY
TO ITASCA. THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST.

LAT...LON 3301 9829 3300 9819 3283 9805 3256 9807
      3256 9784 3249 9778 3222 9721 3184 9745
      3210 9801 3270 9848
TIME...MOT...LOC 2230Z 028DEG 27KT 3219 9735 3240 9783
          3292 9824

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
613 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012

TXZ162-175-072345-
LEON TX-ROBERTSON TX-
613 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  WESTERN LEON COUNTY
  NORTHEASTERN ROBERTSON COUNTY

AT 613 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 20 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF GROESBECK TO 19 MILES NORTHWEST OF MADISONVILLE...MOVING SOUTHWEST
AT 20 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...PEA-SIZED
HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THESE STORMS.

THE COMMUNITIES OF MARQUEZ AND HILLTOP LAKES ARE IN THE PATH OF
THESE STORMS.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3123 9658 3134 9636 3138 9631 3141 9624
      3118 9591 3098 9621
TIME...MOT...LOC 2313Z 052DEG 15KT 3132 9628 3118 9608