Special Weather Statement, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
253 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012

.DISCUSSION...
A PATTERN CHANGE IS NOW UNDERWAY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AS PLUME OF
RICH MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES IS
MOVING IN FROM THE EAST. CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORTEX IS SEEN ON
RADAR AND SATELLITE LOOPS SPINNING NEAR SHREVEPORT...AND IS ALSO
HEADING WESTWARD. THE MCV APPEARS TO BE RESPONSIBLE FOR ENHANCING
LIFT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES WHERE CONVECTION HAS INCREASED
IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH. A SOUTHWEST MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL
HELP PROPEL CONVECTION INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES DURING THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. MAIN THREAT WITH STORMS IS
HEAVY TROPICAL DOWNPOURS AND DAMAGING WINDS FROM MICROBURSTS.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE GFS IS VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT...BUT HAS
LITTLE SUPPORT FROM OTHER MODELS. HOWEVER THIS DOES SEEM PLAUSIBLE
BECAUSE ABOVE 800MB THE AIRMASS WILL BE NEARLY SATURATED AND
CONTAIN MODEST AMOUNTS OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY. ALSO GIVEN THE
LIGHT WIND FIELDS THROUGH THE COLUMN...THE MCV TO OUR EAST WILL
LIKELY HOLD TOGETHER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER THE GFS
MAY BE SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND OVERDOING RAIN
COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS. BUT I DO BELIEVE WE WILL SEE A REDEVELOPMENT
OF WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
WILL KEEP TIMING OF POPS GENERIC TO COVER BOTH EARLY EVENING
STORMS AND POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT.
LOWS MAY BE WARMER THAN FORECAST DUE TO INCREASING MID CLOUDS AND
WARM LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES...BUT RAIN COOLED AIR MAY WIN OUT.

BY TOMORROW PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE BETWEEN 2 AND 2.2 INCHES
ACROSS THE AREA. HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN POCKETS OF INSTABILITY
AND EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY. TEMPERATURES MAY BE HELD BACK A BIT DUE TO THE INCREASED
MID LEVEL CLOUDS TOMORROW BUT GIVEN THE WARM AIR ALREADY IN PLACE
IN THE LOW LEVELS ONLY A COUPLE OF HOURS OF SUN WOULD RESULT IN
TEMPS IN THE MID 90S.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND
SHOULD BECOME DRAPED ALONG A LINE FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA TO CENTRAL
TEXAS. THIS FEATURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK BUT WILL BE
SUBTLE. IT SHOULD PROVIDE SLIGHTLY BETTER AND MORE ORGANIZED LIFT
ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. THE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE WILL ALSO REMAIN IN PLACE...AND THUS SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ALTHOUGH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME LOCATIONS RECEIVING
MORE THAN 3 INCHES...THESE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE ISOLATED...AND
THERE WILL BE A FEW LOCATIONS THAT SEE LITTLE RAIN AS WELL. LIFT
IS JUST NOT ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN DEEP CONVECTION IN ONE
SPOT FOR SEVERAL HOURS AND LOW LEVEL FLOW IS TOO WEAK TO PROVIDE
AMPLE MOISTURE ADVECTION FOR A WIDESPREAD FLOOD THREAT. AGAIN
WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS AND POPS WILL REMAIN BROAD BRUSHED ACROSS SEVERAL PERIODS.

AS THE UPPER HIGH THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
BUILDS WESTWARD...NORTHERLY FLOW AT ALL LEVELS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS BY MIDWEEK. THIS SHOULD BRING DRIER AIR IN FROM THE
NORTH BY MID-LATE WEEK...HOWEVER THE PUSH LOOKS A LITTLE WEAKER IN
THE MODELS TODAY. HAVE EXTENDED POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA INTO
THURSDAY...AND KEPT LOW POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH INTO FRIDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE LOW 90S THIS WEEK IN RESPONSE TO
THE INCREASED CLOUDS/RAIN AND LOWER HEIGHTS. LOWS WILL REMAIN IN
THE LOW-MID 70S THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

TR.92

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  78  96  77  93  77 /  40  30  30  40  30
WACO, TX              75  95  75  92  74 /  30  30  30  40  30
PARIS, TX             74  94  74  92  74 /  30  30  30  40  30
DENTON, TX            76  96  74  92  74 /  40  30  30  40  30
MCKINNEY, TX          75  95  74  92  74 /  40  30  30  40  30
DALLAS, TX            78  96  77  93  77 /  40  30  30  40  30
TERRELL, TX           76  94  75  92  74 /  30  40  30  40  30
CORSICANA, TX         76  93  75  92  75 /  40  40  30  50  30
TEMPLE, TX            74  94  74  91  74 /  30  30  30  40  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     73  95  73  93  72 /  20  20  30  30  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
323 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-081130-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
323 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS
THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING EAST OF A
BOWIE...GRANBURY...KILLEEN LINE. STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET. OTHERWISE...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY SOME OF THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE SUNDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS
SOUTHEAST OF A GOLDTHWAITE...HILLSBORO...ATHENS LINE FRIDAY.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SUNDAY
WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF A
GAINESVILLE TO WEATHERFORD TO TEMPLE LINE THROUGH SUNSET.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
128 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012

TXZ094-095-105-071900-
FANNIN TX-HUNT TX-LAMAR TX-
128 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN FANNIN COUNTY
  NORTHEASTERN HUNT COUNTY
  SOUTHWESTERN LAMAR COUNTY

AT 128 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES WEST OF
PARIS TO 14 MILES NORTH OF COMMERCE...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE DODD CITY...HONEY GROVE
AND WOLFE CITY.

PEA-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THESE
STORMS.

LAT...LON 3375 9563 3349 9576 3346 9582 3346 9586
      3332 9586 3330 9587 3326 9611 3370 9612
TIME...MOT...LOC 1828Z 036DEG 11KT 3370 9572 3344 9587

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