Special Weather Statement, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
330 AM CDT FRI JUN 15 2012

.AVIATION...

08Z AMENDMENTS OF 06Z TAFS...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS
ORGANIZED NORTHWEST OF METROPLEX TAF SITES AND CONTINUES TO HOLD
TOGETHER WHILE MOVING SOUTHEAST AS OF 08Z.  THIS LINE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT APPROXIMATELY 20 KTS.  USED THIS
SPEED TO AMEND THE TAFS FOR THE WIND SHIFT LINE AND VICINITY THUNDER
FOR NOW...AND WILL UPDATE THE TIMING AGAIN WITH SCHEDULED 09Z
AMENDMENTS.

ASSUMING PRECIPITATION MAINTAINS ITS CURRENT COVERAGE AS IT GETS
CLOSER TO THE METROPLEX...WILL INCLUDE PRECIPITATION WITH MVFR VSBYS
IN ADDITION TO THE VCTS.  CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN A WIND SHIFT
AFFECTING ALL METROPLEX TAF SITES FROM 0930Z TO 1030Z.  AT THIS TIME
ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE ELEVATED OVER A STABLE COLD
LAYER/REMNANTS OF EARLIER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  THEREFORE THIS
ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE AS IT MOVES OVER METROPLEX
AREA TAF SITES.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS AND WILL
UPDATE THE AVIATION DISCUSSION IF ANY MAJOR CHANGE IN THE FORECAST
IS NECESSARY.

CAVANAUGH

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MANY MODELS CONTINUE TO OVER-STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE...AND ONCE
AGAIN THE RESULT IS THAT THE ATMOSPHERE RETAINS ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT CONVECTION. THE SHORT WAVE FEATURES
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SYSTEMS ARE WEAK...AND IT MAY BE THAT THE
SMOOTHING SCHEMES USED IN MODEL INITIATION ARE DESTROYING THESE
FEATURES THAT ARE PRODUCING WEATHER.

FOR TODAY...THE TTU WRF AND 00Z GFS COMPLETELY MISSED THE ONGOING
CONVECTION. THE HRRR IS NOT AVAILABLE. THE RAP/RUC FAILED TO
ADVECT THE STORMS INTO OUR AREA. OUN WRF AND NCEP 4KM WRF BOTH
FORECAST THE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION TO CONTINUE INTO NORTH TEXAS.
THE NAM PRODUCED NO PRECIPITATION TODAY...BUT CROSS SECTION
ANALYSIS SHOWS INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ABOVE THE MORNING
INVERSION AND SO IT DOES SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION.
ANOTHER FACTOR IS THE MCV THAT IS CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST WEST OF
FREDERICK AND SHOULD TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. ANY FORCING
FOR LIFT GENERATED BY THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY NOT BE RESOLVED IN
THIS MORNING/S MODELS. IT MAY BE THAT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/S MCV
THAT TRACKED SIMILARLY TO THIS ONE HAD AN INFLUENCE ON THE NORTH
TEXAS CONVECTION THAT PRODUCED THE LARGE HAIL. THUS I HAVE KEPT
POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA THIS MORNING AND THE EASTERN THIRD
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...IT WILL
NOT TAKE MUCH FORCING TO DESTABILIZE THIS ATMOSPHERE.

I CONTINUED THE LOW POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN IT APPEARS THAT NORTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH MONDAY. THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PRECIP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS SCENARIO
IS SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. BY THURSDAY...MODELS START
TO DIVERGE. THE GFS NOW TAKES THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ON A MUCH
MORE NORTHERN TRACK AND RECURVES IT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE ECMWF HOLDS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
THE TROPICAL SYSTEM AND SHUNTS IT WESTWARD INTO MEXICO. IF THE GFS
IS RIGHT...THE LATE WEEK TIME PERIODS WILL BE WET BUT SINCE THIS
IS A NEW WRINKLE I WILL STICK WITH CONTINUITY AND ADD NO POPS TO
THE FORECAST. IF THE ECMWF STARTS TO AGREE WITH THAT TRACK...THE
LATER FORECASTS WILL LIKELY BE ADDING POPS LATE NEXT WEEK. 84

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  94  74  93  72  94 /  30  10  10   5   5
WACO, TX              95  74  93  73  96 /  20  10  10  10  10
PARIS, TX             90  72  90  71  92 /  20  10  10  10  10
DENTON, TX            93  74  93  72  93 /  30  10  10   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          92  73  92  72  94 /  30  10  10  10  10
DALLAS, TX            94  74  93  72  94 /  30  10  10   5   5
TERRELL, TX           93  73  92  71  93 /  20  10  10  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         92  74  92  72  94 /  20  10  20  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            92  75  91  74  93 /  20  10  10   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     93  74  93  72  94 /  30  10  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1233 AM CDT FRI JUN 15 2012

TXZ100-115-150600-
STEPHENS TX-YOUNG TX-
1233 AM CDT FRI JUN 15 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  STEPHENS COUNTY
  YOUNG COUNTY

AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS SURGED OUT WELL AHEAD OF THUNDERSTORMS
APPROACHING YOUNG AND STEPHENS COUNTY.  AS THIS BOUNDARY MOVES INTO
YOUNG AND STEPHENS COUNTIES FROM THE NORTHWEST...IT WILL CAUSE WINDS
TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND GUST TO 40 TO 50 MPH.  WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 30 TO 40 MPH AFTER THE BOUNDARY HAS PASSED.
MODERATE RAINFALL WILL EVENTUALLY FOLLOW IN BEHIND THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY LIKELY 15 TO 20 MINUTES AFTER THE WIND HAS SHIFTED.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE
BRECKENRIDGE...GRAHAM...OLNEY...CRYSTAL FALLS...GUNSIGHT AND
NECESSITY.

LAT...LON 3292 9911 3296 9909 3297 9896 3340 9896
      3341 9849 3338 9842 3318 9842 3296 9849
      3295 9857 3286 9857 3251 9872 3252 9911
TIME...MOT...LOC 0527Z 301DEG 28KT 3336 9884 3296 9911

CAVANAUGH

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