Severe Thunderstorm Warning 203, NWS Fort Worth, TX

417 
WWUS54 KFWD 150907
SVSFWD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
407 AM CDT FRI JUN 15 2012

TXC221-367-150945-
/O.CON.KFWD.SV.W.0203.000000T0000Z-120615T0945Z/
HOOD TX-PARKER TX-
407 AM CDT FRI JUN 15 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 AM CDT
FOR SOUTHERN PARKER AND NORTHERN HOOD COUNTIES...

AT 405 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES 
NORTH OF OAK TRAIL SHORES...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. THE STORM 
STRETCHES FROM SOUTH OF WEATHERFORD TO NORTHWEST OF OAK TRAIL 
SHORES. AS OF THE LAST SCAN...IT APPEARS THAT IT MAY BE BEGINNING TO 
COLLAPSE THIS SHOULD BE WHEN THE WIND THREAT IS GREATEST. 

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ANNETTA SOUTH...ANNETTA...ANNETTA NORTH AND ALEDO AROUND 445 AM
  CDT...

THIS WILL IMPACT I-20 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 394 AND 415.

LAT...LON 3262 9794 3271 9794 3283 9755 3255 9756
      3255 9761 3242 9762 3240 9785 3244 9804
      3247 9804
TIME...MOT...LOC 0905Z 243DEG 13KT 3258 9785

$$

597 
WWUS54 KFWD 150924
SVSFWD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
424 AM CDT FRI JUN 15 2012

TXC221-367-150933-
/O.CAN.KFWD.SV.W.0203.000000T0000Z-120615T0945Z/
HOOD TX-PARKER TX-
424 AM CDT FRI JUN 15 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN PARKER AND NORTHERN
HOOD COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THIS WILL IMPACT I-20 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 394 AND 415.

AT 423 AM CDT THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING
WEAKENED AND WAS NO LONGER SEVERE...THUS THE WARNING HAS BEEN
CANCELLED.

RADAR INDICATED THAT HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS NEAR 40 TO 45 MPH 
WERE STILL POSSIBLE FROM THE THUNDERSTORM. THESE WINDS WILL TRACK 
INTO TARRANT COUNTY AS WELL.

LAT...LON 3262 9794 3271 9794 3283 9755 3255 9756
      3255 9761 3242 9762 3240 9785 3244 9804
      3247 9804
TIME...MOT...LOC 0923Z 243DEG 13KT 3261 9778

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
330 AM CDT FRI JUN 15 2012

.AVIATION...

08Z AMENDMENTS OF 06Z TAFS...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS
ORGANIZED NORTHWEST OF METROPLEX TAF SITES AND CONTINUES TO HOLD
TOGETHER WHILE MOVING SOUTHEAST AS OF 08Z.  THIS LINE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT APPROXIMATELY 20 KTS.  USED THIS
SPEED TO AMEND THE TAFS FOR THE WIND SHIFT LINE AND VICINITY THUNDER
FOR NOW...AND WILL UPDATE THE TIMING AGAIN WITH SCHEDULED 09Z
AMENDMENTS.

ASSUMING PRECIPITATION MAINTAINS ITS CURRENT COVERAGE AS IT GETS
CLOSER TO THE METROPLEX...WILL INCLUDE PRECIPITATION WITH MVFR VSBYS
IN ADDITION TO THE VCTS.  CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN A WIND SHIFT
AFFECTING ALL METROPLEX TAF SITES FROM 0930Z TO 1030Z.  AT THIS TIME
ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE ELEVATED OVER A STABLE COLD
LAYER/REMNANTS OF EARLIER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  THEREFORE THIS
ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE AS IT MOVES OVER METROPLEX
AREA TAF SITES.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS AND WILL
UPDATE THE AVIATION DISCUSSION IF ANY MAJOR CHANGE IN THE FORECAST
IS NECESSARY.

CAVANAUGH

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MANY MODELS CONTINUE TO OVER-STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE...AND ONCE
AGAIN THE RESULT IS THAT THE ATMOSPHERE RETAINS ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT CONVECTION. THE SHORT WAVE FEATURES
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SYSTEMS ARE WEAK...AND IT MAY BE THAT THE
SMOOTHING SCHEMES USED IN MODEL INITIATION ARE DESTROYING THESE
FEATURES THAT ARE PRODUCING WEATHER.

FOR TODAY...THE TTU WRF AND 00Z GFS COMPLETELY MISSED THE ONGOING
CONVECTION. THE HRRR IS NOT AVAILABLE. THE RAP/RUC FAILED TO
ADVECT THE STORMS INTO OUR AREA. OUN WRF AND NCEP 4KM WRF BOTH
FORECAST THE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION TO CONTINUE INTO NORTH TEXAS.
THE NAM PRODUCED NO PRECIPITATION TODAY...BUT CROSS SECTION
ANALYSIS SHOWS INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ABOVE THE MORNING
INVERSION AND SO IT DOES SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION.
ANOTHER FACTOR IS THE MCV THAT IS CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST WEST OF
FREDERICK AND SHOULD TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. ANY FORCING
FOR LIFT GENERATED BY THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY NOT BE RESOLVED IN
THIS MORNING/S MODELS. IT MAY BE THAT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/S MCV
THAT TRACKED SIMILARLY TO THIS ONE HAD AN INFLUENCE ON THE NORTH
TEXAS CONVECTION THAT PRODUCED THE LARGE HAIL. THUS I HAVE KEPT
POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA THIS MORNING AND THE EASTERN THIRD
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...IT WILL
NOT TAKE MUCH FORCING TO DESTABILIZE THIS ATMOSPHERE.

I CONTINUED THE LOW POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN IT APPEARS THAT NORTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH MONDAY. THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PRECIP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS SCENARIO
IS SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. BY THURSDAY...MODELS START
TO DIVERGE. THE GFS NOW TAKES THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ON A MUCH
MORE NORTHERN TRACK AND RECURVES IT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE ECMWF HOLDS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
THE TROPICAL SYSTEM AND SHUNTS IT WESTWARD INTO MEXICO. IF THE GFS
IS RIGHT...THE LATE WEEK TIME PERIODS WILL BE WET BUT SINCE THIS
IS A NEW WRINKLE I WILL STICK WITH CONTINUITY AND ADD NO POPS TO
THE FORECAST. IF THE ECMWF STARTS TO AGREE WITH THAT TRACK...THE
LATER FORECASTS WILL LIKELY BE ADDING POPS LATE NEXT WEEK. 84

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  94  74  93  72  94 /  30  10  10   5   5
WACO, TX              95  74  93  73  96 /  20  10  10  10  10
PARIS, TX             90  72  90  71  92 /  20  10  10  10  10
DENTON, TX            93  74  93  72  93 /  30  10  10   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          92  73  92  72  94 /  30  10  10  10  10
DALLAS, TX            94  74  93  72  94 /  30  10  10   5   5
TERRELL, TX           93  73  92  71  93 /  20  10  10  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         92  74  92  72  94 /  20  10  20  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            92  75  91  74  93 /  20  10  10   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     93  74  93  72  94 /  30  10  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
941 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-151200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
941 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST OF A COMANCHE...
MINERAL WELLS...DENTON...SHERMAN LINE...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
A FEW SEVERE STORMS CONTAINING DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS...
LARGE HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF A BOWIE
TO MINERAL WELLS LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A CAMERON...CORSICANA...CANTON LINE. T

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TUESDAY ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF LAMPASAS TO CANTON LINE...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE EAST
OF A BONHAM...TO DALLAS...TO KILLEEN LINE ON WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY NEED TO BE REQUESTED OVERNIGHT...WEST OF A
BOWIE TO MINERAL WELLS LINE.

05/

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1233 AM CDT FRI JUN 15 2012

TXZ100-115-150600-
STEPHENS TX-YOUNG TX-
1233 AM CDT FRI JUN 15 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  STEPHENS COUNTY
  YOUNG COUNTY

AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS SURGED OUT WELL AHEAD OF THUNDERSTORMS
APPROACHING YOUNG AND STEPHENS COUNTY.  AS THIS BOUNDARY MOVES INTO
YOUNG AND STEPHENS COUNTIES FROM THE NORTHWEST...IT WILL CAUSE WINDS
TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND GUST TO 40 TO 50 MPH.  WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 30 TO 40 MPH AFTER THE BOUNDARY HAS PASSED.
MODERATE RAINFALL WILL EVENTUALLY FOLLOW IN BEHIND THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY LIKELY 15 TO 20 MINUTES AFTER THE WIND HAS SHIFTED.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE
BRECKENRIDGE...GRAHAM...OLNEY...CRYSTAL FALLS...GUNSIGHT AND
NECESSITY.

LAT...LON 3292 9911 3296 9909 3297 9896 3340 9896
      3341 9849 3338 9842 3318 9842 3296 9849
      3295 9857 3286 9857 3251 9872 3252 9911
TIME...MOT...LOC 0527Z 301DEG 28KT 3336 9884 3296 9911

CAVANAUGH