Severe Thunderstorm Warning 91, NWS Fort Worth, TX

307 
WWUS54 KFWD 200222
SVSFWD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
922 PM CDT THU APR 19 2012

TXC363-429-200231-
/O.CAN.KFWD.SV.W.0091.000000T0000Z-120420T0245Z/
PALO PINTO TX-STEPHENS TX-
922 PM CDT THU APR 19 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN STEPHENS AND
NORTHERN PALO PINTO COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

LAT...LON 3340 9868 3340 9843 3348 9842 3348 9837
      3347 9798 3343 9798 3344 9794 3342 9791
      3300 9806 3301 9842 3295 9843 3296 9890
TIME...MOT...LOC 0221Z 273DEG 29KT 3342 9803 3321 9818
          3304 9862

$$

TXC237-503-200245-
/O.CON.KFWD.SV.W.0091.000000T0000Z-120420T0245Z/
JACK TX-YOUNG TX-
922 PM CDT THU APR 19 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM CDT
FOR YOUNG AND JACK COUNTIES...

AT 921 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF JACKSBORO
TO JACKSBORO TO 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GRAHAM...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  GRAHAM AT 925 PM CDT

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER IN A STRONG BUILDING AND
STAY INSIDE...AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 3340 9868 3340 9843 3348 9842 3348 9837
      3347 9798 3343 9798 3344 9794 3342 9791
      3300 9806 3301 9842 3295 9843 3296 9890
TIME...MOT...LOC 0221Z 273DEG 29KT 3342 9803 3321 9818
          3304 9862

$$


82/JLD

138 
WWUS54 KFWD 200240
SVSFWD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
940 PM CDT THU APR 19 2012

TXC237-503-200249-
/O.EXP.KFWD.SV.W.0091.000000T0000Z-120420T0245Z/
JACK TX-YOUNG TX-
940 PM CDT THU APR 19 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR YOUNG AND JACK COUNTIES
EXPIRES AT 945 PM CDT...

AT 939 PM CDT THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING
WEAKENED AND WAS NO LONGER SEVERE.

LAT...LON 3340 9868 3340 9843 3348 9842 3348 9837
      3347 9798 3343 9798 3344 9794 3342 9791
      3300 9806 3301 9842 3295 9843 3296 9890
TIME...MOT...LOC 0239Z 273DEG 29KT 3341 9786 3320 9801
          3303 9845

$$


82/JLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
654 PM CDT THU APR 19 2012

.UPDATE...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST COMBINED
WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL ALLOW FOR PRIMARILY ELEVATED CONVECTION TO AFFECT THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY AND CLOUD LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SEVERE HAIL THREAT. SPC HAS JUST ISSUED
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE NW PARTS OF THE CWA. IT IS
POSSIBLE A LINE SEGMENT WILL ORGANIZE FROM THE EARLY EVENING
ACTIVITY AND TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE
LATE EVENING HOURS...BUT ELEVATED NATURE OF STORMS MAY LIMIT THE
ABILITY FOR CONVECTION TO GROW UPSCALE INTO A MCS.
REGARDLESS...GIVEN THE AMPLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY...BELIEVE AT
LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD SUSTAIN ITSELF LONG ENOUGH TO
AFFECT THE NORTHEAST ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT.

HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO BUMP UP POPS THIS EVENING IN THE NW
ZONES. WILL AWAIT 00Z SOUNDING DATA TO DETERMINE IF POPS NEED TO
BE RAISED ALONG AND/OR SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.

TR.92

&&

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS SOUTHWESTWARD TO A
1003 MB SURFACE LOW JUST WEST OF WICHITA FALLS...THEN WEST THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. A DRYLINE EXTENDED FROM THE LOW
CENTER INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY NORTH OF THE RED RIVER ALONG THE FRONT
THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE
REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO AFFECT TAF SITES
AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.

SOME WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO WILL
STICK WITH THE VCSH BEGINNING AROUND 10Z. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE DUE MAINLY TO FORCING ALONG THE FRONT...BUT WITH THE
LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY THE THREAT LOOKS RELATIVELY LOW.
WILL KEEP THE PREVAILING SHRA FOR THE MORNING HOURS BEGINNING AT
13Z IN THE METROPLEX...AND 15Z IN WACO...WHICH COINCIDES WITH
FROPA TIMING. IF FUTURE TRENDS OR LATER GUIDANCE POINT TOWARDS
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...WILL ADJUST 06Z TAFS ACCORDINGLY.
NORTH WINDS WILL BECOME A BIT GUSTY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BUT
SHOULD GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS BY THIS TIME FRIDAY.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT THU APR 19 2012/
THE NEXT 24 HOURS APPEAR TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE OVER THE NEXT 7
DAYS. THIS AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS
INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. A DRYLINE IS
LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM A SURFACE LOW NEAR CHILDRESS TO BIG
SPRING AND INTO THE BIG BEND REGION. A S/W TROF CURRENTLY DIGGING
ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING WILL DEEPEN OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS IN
RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFICATION OVER THE WEST COAST.
LATER TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE FARTHER SOUTH AS MAIN
SURFACE LOW OVER THE MIDWEST CONTINUES NORTHEAST. THE ATMOSPHERE
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA IS UNSTABLE HOWEVER IT
REMAINS STRONGLY CAPPED TO SURFACE BASED CONVECTION AND IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING. AS HEIGHT
FALLS/LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT...FORCING ALONG THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AND BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA INDICATE THAT PARCELS FORCED
BETWEEN 800-700MB WILL HAVE LITTLE INHIBITION BETWEEN 10 PM AND
MIDNIGHT. SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH
ANY STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME...HOWEVER THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL GIVEN THE NEARLY DRY
ADIABATIC MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND HIGH LCL/S. FARTHER SOUTH NEAR
THE METROPLEX...STRONG INHIBITION WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE AND
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT ON THE FRONT. WILL HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS RIGHT ALONG THE RED RIVER TAPERING OFF QUICKLY TO THE
SOUTH FOR TONIGHT.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH TEXAS TOMORROW MORNING WITH
CAPPING ERODING BY THIS TIME. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED RIGHT ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. BEST CHANCES WILL
BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND EAST DURING THE MORNING...THEN SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CLEAR THE CWA BY
TOMORROW EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOW
70S WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

THE WEEKEND AND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS VERY QUIET WITH LITTLE
CHANCE FOR RAIN AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. MID LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE GFS DOES INDICATE
AN AXIS OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WORKING NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS BY MIDWEEK WITH MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AT THIS TIME
SEE NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM THAT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE
CONVECTION BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

DUNN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  60  70  47  71  50 /  20  60   5   0   0
WACO, TX              62  71  45  73  44 /  10  60   5   0   0
PARIS, TX             58  66  46  69  47 /  50  60  10   0   0
DENTON, TX            58  67  45  69  48 /  30  50   5   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          60  68  46  70  48 /  40  60   5   0   0
DALLAS, TX            61  70  47  71  50 /  20  60   5   0   0
TERRELL, TX           60  69  45  72  46 /  20  60   5   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         62  71  47  73  48 /  20  60  10   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            62  74  46  74  46 /  10  60  10   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     58  70  44  72  46 /  20  40   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
701 PM CDT THU APR 19 2012

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-201230-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
701 PM CDT THU APR 19 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT ALONG AND NORTHWEST
OF A LINE FROM RISING STAR TO DENTON TO BONHAM. SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL SPREAD TO A LINE NORTH OF
GOLDTHWAITE TO ATHENS. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY NEAR THE RED RIVER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS
ALL OF NORTH TEXAS. SOME STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A
KILLEEN TO WACO TO TERRELL LINE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM RISING STAR TO DENTON
TO BONHAM.

82/JLD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
848 PM CDT THU APR 19 2012

TXZ100-101-115-200215-
JACK TX-STEPHENS TX-YOUNG TX-
848 PM CDT THU APR 19 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  WESTERN JACK COUNTY
  NORTHERN STEPHENS COUNTY
  YOUNG COUNTY

AT 847 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 17 MILES NORTHWEST
OF JACKSBORO TO 12 MILES NORTH OF BRECKENRIDGE...MOVING EAST AT 35
MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE BRYSON...GRAHAM AND
CRYSTAL FALLS.

CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...PENNY-SIZED HAIL...AND
WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3297 9902 3297 9896 3305 9896 3340 9864
      3340 9843 3347 9842 3347 9798 3344 9798
      3300 9838 3301 9843 3295 9843 3295 9858
      3286 9858 3285 9910
TIME...MOT...LOC 0147Z 270DEG 29KT 3339 9836 3293 9885

82/JLD