Severe Thunderstorm Warning 300, NWS Fort Worth, TX

287 
WWUS54 KFWD 140403
SVSFWD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1103 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

TXC497-140415-
/O.CON.KFWD.SV.W.0300.000000T0000Z-121014T0415Z/
WISE TX-
1103 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1115 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN WISE COUNTY...

AT 1104 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF
60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DECATUR...MOVING
EAST AT 40 MPH.

LAT...LON 3343 9739 3310 9740 3315 9777 3324 9775
TIME...MOT...LOC 0404Z 280DEG 34KT 3320 9748

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
941 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

.UPDATE...
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE ALONG THE RED RIVER...BUT WITH
THE TORNADIC THREAT DIMINISHED...THE TORNADO WATCH WAS ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE ON TIME (9 PM CDT). 00Z FWD RAOB SHOWED A STRONGLY UNSTABLE
PROFILE THAT IS SO FAR UNTAPPED. FWS VWP STILL SHOWING 50-KT WINDS
AT 3-4KFT AGL. THIS STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...VEERING
SHEAR PROFILE...AND STRONG MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE
OF STRONG UPDRAFTS. BUT AS THE INFLOW BECOMES NEARLY PARALLEL TO
THE MEAN STORM MOTION...THE LINE SHOULD CONGEAL FURTHER...LIKELY
UNZIPPING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE METROPLEX AROUND MIDNIGHT OR
THEREAFTER. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT...WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS
CONVECTIVE MODE.

25

&&

.AVIATION...
NO REAL CHANGE TO ONGOING TAF FORECAST. STILL EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS
TO AFFECT METROPLEX TERMINALS BETWEEN 4Z-8Z/11PM-3 AM. CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE FORM OF SHORT LINE SEGMENTS/TRAINING
CLUSTERS. THIS MAY RESULT IN AN HOUR OR TWO OF THUNDERSTORM AT A
PARTICULAR AIRPORT...RESULTING IN A LONG GROUND STOP. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND UPDATE AS NEEDED.

OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AT 15KT THIS EVENING AND SWITCH TO
THE WEST WHEN STORMS/FRONT ARRIVE. WINDS SHOULD BECOME NORTHWEST
AT 10KT TOMORROW MORNING WITH CLEARING SKIES. NO AVIATION CONCERNS
FOR TOMORROW. TR.92

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012/
SHORTWAVE THIS MORNING NOW TRACKING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AND
HAS PRODUCED SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 35W/35E. WITH A RELATIVELY STRONG
CAP THIS MORNING...THIS FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL ACT AS SOMEWHAT OF
A PRIMER TO LIFT AND WEAKEN THE CAP IN ADVANCE OF THE LARGE SCALE
ASCENT THAT IS NOW ENTERING NORTHWEST TEXAS. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
FROM JUST WEST OF WICHITA FALLS TO NEAR SWEETWATER WAS BECOMING
ACTIVE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING IN THE
VICINITY OF HASKELL AS OF THE PAST HOUR. WE EXPECT THE PACIFIC
COLD FRONT FURTHER WEST OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TO EVENTUALLY
OVERTAKE THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
INCREASING STORMS ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS AROUND 85 DEGREES PER THIS
MORNINGS FWD SOUNDING AND AMDAR VAPOR AND WE ARE JUST A FEW
DEGREES BELOW THAT. WITH THIS ALL IN MIND...OUR FIRST WATCH OF
THE DAY HAS BEEN ISSUED ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES. TORNADO
WATCH 661 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM NORTHWEST OF AN
EASTLAND...MINERAL WELLS...SAINT JO LINE.

WE DO EXPECT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO RAMP UP ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS IN THE 4-7 PM TIME FRAME...AS THE
LARGE SCALE ASCENT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WITH MORE OF A CAP
TO ERODE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS VERSUS OKLAHOMA...ITS LIKELY THE
STORM MODE WILL BE MORE CELLULAR INITIALLY VERSUS A SOLID SQUALL
LINE THAT IS EXPECTED FURTHER TO THE NORTH. MLCAPE NOW ACROSS THE
WESTERN COUNTIES IS 1000-1500 J/KG WITH 0-3KM/0-1KM HELICITIES
RANGING FROM 150-300 M2/S2 ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. THROW IN 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 45-50KTS INDICATES THAT WIND FIELDS
WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH FOR THE ORGANIZATION OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS. INITIAL THREATS INTO EARLY EVENING WILL BE LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO WITH CELLS
REMAINING DISCRETE. BY MID EVENING... A 40-50 KT LLJ WILL LIKELY
CONGEAL STORMS INTO A LINEAR MCS...WHICH WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST
OVERNIGHT AND SLOW DOWN. WE THINK THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER
RISK WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA...THEN
BECOME MORE LOCALIZED WITH A POSSIBLE INCREASING HYDROLOGICAL
SITUATION FOR OUR SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...THOUGH A VEERING LLJ OVERNIGHT SHOULD KEEP ANY
FLOODING MINOR AND LOCALIZED.

WE EXPECT THE PACIFIC FRONT TO CONTINUE ITS SOUTHEAST MIGRATION
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS SUNDAY AND LIKELY ENDING RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS COUNTIES BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. DRY AIR WILL THEN INFILTRATE INTO THE AREA BY SUNDAY
EVENING AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. A WEAK SOUTHERN BRANCH
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT NOTHING IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS OUTSIDE OF
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND SOME MODIFIED MOISTURE RETURN BACK
NORTH ACROSS MAINLY EAST TEXAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AND HAVE PUSHED BEST RAIN CHANCES TO THIS TIME PERIOD MAINLY EAST
OF I-35. SEE ENOUGH FORCING WITH THE FRONT AND LAPSE RATES ALOFT
FOR THE MENTION OF THUNDER WITH THIS FRONT.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AN UPPER LOW DEEPENS OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...HELPING TO KEEP A DRY AND COOL
CONTINENTAL AIRMASS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND NEXT WEEKEND...WE SHOULD SEE AN UPPER RIDGE
ESTABLISH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH A RETURN OF BREEZY SOUTH
WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN.

05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  66  84  58  85  60 /  70   5   5   0   5
WACO, TX              69  84  55  84  57 /  70  30   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             65  82  54  83  55 /  70  10   5   0   0
DENTON, TX            62  83  52  85  55 /  70   5   0   0   5
MCKINNEY, TX          65  83  52  84  55 /  70  10   5   0   0
DALLAS, TX            67  83  59  86  61 /  60  10   5   0   5
TERRELL, TX           68  83  55  86  57 /  60  20   5   0   5
CORSICANA, TX         69  84  57  84  58 /  70  30   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            70  83  56  85  59 /  60  40   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     58  86  54  84  55 /  70   5   0   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

92/25

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
250 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-141230-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
250 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH
THIS EVENING...THOUGH HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL BE WEST OF A
SHERMAN...DALLAS...TO LAMPASAS LINE LATER IN THE DAY. SOME STORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS TO BETWEEN 60 AND 70
MPH...AND LARGE HAIL. THERE REMAINS A POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
ISOLATED TORNADOES THROUGH MID EVENING WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20.

STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AND OVERSPREAD ALL OF NORTH TEXAS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST/SOUTHEAST.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO A THREAT
OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINGER SOUTH OF A GOLDTHWAITE TO ENNIS
TO EMORY LINE SUNDAY MORNING. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE EASTERN HALF NORTH TEXAS ON
WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF A LAMPASAS...TO
DALLAS...TO SHERMAN LINE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
911 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0905 PM     TSTM WND GST     SANDUSKY                33.77N  96.90W
10/13/2012  E65 MPH          GRAYSON            TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            WIND GUST 60 TO 65 MPH AT HWY 377 AND DIXIE RD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
917 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0905 PM     TSTM WND GST     7 N WHITESBORO          33.76N 96.90W
10/13/2012  E60.00 MPH       GRAYSON            TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            60 TO 65 MPH WIND GUST AT HWY 377 AND DIXIE RD

&&

MBISHOP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
933 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

TXZ092-093-140300-
GRAYSON TX-COOKE TX-
933 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  EASTERN COOKE COUNTY
  WESTERN GRAYSON COUNTY

AT 933 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GAINESVILLE...MOVING EAST AT
35 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE CALLISBURG...COLLINSVILLE...
GAINESVILLE...GUNTER...LINDSAY AND WHITESBORO.

PEA-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3384 9676 3383 9676 3384 9671 3342 9669
      3343 9731 3367 9722 3373 9714 3372 9711
      3377 9709 3386 9696
TIME...MOT...LOC 0233Z 254DEG 32KT 3357 9702

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
957 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0945 PM     TSTM WND GST     WHITESBORO              33.66N 96.90W
10/13/2012  E60 MPH          GRAYSON            TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            ESTIMATED 60 MPH WIND GUST AND PEA SIZED HAIL NEAR
            WHITESBORO

&&

MBISHOP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
959 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

TXZ101-140330-
JACK TX-
959 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  CENTRAL JACK COUNTY

AT 959 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES NORTHEAST OF GRAHAM...MOVING EAST AT 45
MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE BRYSON AND JACKSBORO.

PENNY-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3343 9797 3331 9791 3316 9792 3308 9843
      3328 9842 3344 9798
TIME...MOT...LOC 0259Z 259DEG 38KT 3320 9837

CAVANAUGH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1018 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

TXZ102-140345-
WISE TX-
1018 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  WISE COUNTY

AT 1018 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF BRIDGEPORT...MOVING EAST AT
35 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE ALVORD...AURORA...BOYD...
BRIDGEPORT...CHICO...DECATUR...BOONSVILLE AND COTTONDALE.

PENNY-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3343 9738 3300 9739 3299 9741 3300 9792
      3343 9792 3343 9791 3344 9742
TIME...MOT...LOC 0318Z 255DEG 29KT 3332 9789