Severe Thunderstorm Warning 297, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
623 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

.AVIATION...
NO REAL CHANGE TO ONGOING TAF FORECAST. STILL EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS
TO AFFECT METROPLEX TERMINALS BETWEEN 4Z-8Z/11PM-3 AM. CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE FORM OF SHORT LINE SEGMENTS/TRAINING
CLUSTERS. THIS MAY RESULT IN AN HOUR OR TWO OF THUNDERSTORM AT A
PARTICULAR AIRPORT...RESULTING IN A LONG GROUND STOP. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND UPDATE AS NEEDED.

OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AT 15KT THIS EVENING AND SWITCH TO
THE WEST WHEN STORMS/FRONT ARRIVE. WINDS SHOULD BECOME NORTHWEST
AT 10KT TOMORROW MORNING WITH CLEARING SKIES. NO AVIATION CONCERNS
FOR TOMORROW. TR.92

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012/
SHORTWAVE THIS MORNING NOW TRACKING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AND
HAS PRODUCED SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 35W/35E. WITH A RELATIVELY STRONG
CAP THIS MORNING...THIS FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL ACT AS SOMEWHAT OF
A PRIMER TO LIFT AND WEAKEN THE CAP IN ADVANCE OF THE LARGE SCALE
ASCENT THAT IS NOW ENTERING NORTHWEST TEXAS. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
FROM JUST WEST OF WICHITA FALLS TO NEAR SWEETWATER WAS BECOMING
ACTIVE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING IN THE
VICINITY OF HASKELL AS OF THE PAST HOUR. WE EXPECT THE PACIFIC
COLD FRONT FURTHER WEST OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TO EVENTUALLY
OVERTAKE THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
INCREASING STORMS ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS AROUND 85 DEGREES PER THIS
MORNINGS FWD SOUNDING AND AMDAR VAPOR AND WE ARE JUST A FEW
DEGREES BELOW THAT. WITH THIS ALL IN MIND...OUR FIRST WATCH OF
THE DAY HAS BEEN ISSUED ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES. TORNADO
WATCH 661 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM NORTHWEST OF AN
EASTLAND...MINERAL WELLS...SAINT JO LINE.

WE DO EXPECT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO RAMP UP ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS IN THE 4-7 PM TIME FRAME...AS THE
LARGE SCALE ASCENT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WITH MORE OF A CAP
TO ERODE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS VERSUS OKLAHOMA...ITS LIKELY THE
STORM MODE WILL BE MORE CELLULAR INITIALLY VERSUS A SOLID SQUALL
LINE THAT IS EXPECTED FURTHER TO THE NORTH. MLCAPE NOW ACROSS THE
WESTERN COUNTIES IS 1000-1500 J/KG WITH 0-3KM/0-1KM HELICITIES
RANGING FROM 150-300 M2/S2 ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. THROW IN 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 45-50KTS INDICATES THAT WIND FIELDS
WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH FOR THE ORGANIZATION OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS. INITIAL THREATS INTO EARLY EVENING WILL BE LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO WITH CELLS
REMAINING DISCRETE. BY MID EVENING... A 40-50 KT LLJ WILL LIKELY
CONGEAL STORMS INTO A LINEAR MCS...WHICH WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST
OVERNIGHT AND SLOW DOWN. WE THINK THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER
RISK WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA...THEN
BECOME MORE LOCALIZED WITH A POSSIBLE INCREASING HYDROLOGICAL
SITUATION FOR OUR SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING...THOUGH A VEERING LLJ OVERNIGHT SHOULD KEEP ANY
FLOODING MINOR AND LOCALIZED.

WE EXPECT THE PACIFIC FRONT TO CONTINUE ITS SOUTHEAST MIGRATION
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS SUNDAY AND LIKELY ENDING RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS COUNTIES BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. DRY AIR WILL THEN INFILTRATE INTO THE AREA BY SUNDAY
EVENING AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. A WEAK SOUTHERN BRANCH
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT NOTHING IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS OUTSIDE OF
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AND SOME MODIFIED MOISTURE RETURN BACK
NORTH ACROSS MAINLY EAST TEXAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AND HAVE PUSHED BEST RAIN CHANCES TO THIS TIME PERIOD MAINLY EAST
OF I-35. SEE ENOUGH FORCING WITH THE FRONT AND LAPSE RATES ALOFT
FOR THE MENTION OF THUNDER WITH THIS FRONT.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AN UPPER LOW DEEPENS OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...HELPING TO KEEP A DRY AND COOL
CONTINENTAL AIRMASS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND NEXT WEEKEND...WE SHOULD SEE AN UPPER RIDGE
ESTABLISH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH A RETURN OF BREEZY SOUTH
WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN.

05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  66  84  58  85  60 /  70   5   5   0   5
WACO, TX              69  84  55  84  57 /  70  30   5   5   5
PARIS, TX             65  82  54  83  55 /  60  10   5   0   0
DENTON, TX            62  83  52  85  55 /  70   5   0   0   5
MCKINNEY, TX          65  83  52  84  55 /  60  10   5   0   0
DALLAS, TX            67  83  59  86  61 /  60  10   5   0   5
TERRELL, TX           68  83  55  86  57 /  60  20   5   0   5
CORSICANA, TX         69  84  57  84  58 /  70  30   5   5   5
TEMPLE, TX            70  83  56  85  59 /  70  40   5   5   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     58  86  54  84  55 /  70   5   0   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
250 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-141230-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
250 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH
THIS EVENING...THOUGH HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL BE WEST OF A
SHERMAN...DALLAS...TO LAMPASAS LINE LATER IN THE DAY. SOME STORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS TO BETWEEN 60 AND 70
MPH...AND LARGE HAIL. THERE REMAINS A POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
ISOLATED TORNADOES THROUGH MID EVENING WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20.

STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AND OVERSPREAD ALL OF NORTH TEXAS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST/SOUTHEAST.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO A THREAT
OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINGER SOUTH OF A GOLDTHWAITE TO ENNIS
TO EMORY LINE SUNDAY MORNING. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE EASTERN HALF NORTH TEXAS ON
WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF A LAMPASAS...TO
DALLAS...TO SHERMAN LINE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
746 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

TXZ091-101-140115-
JACK TX-MONTAGUE TX-
746 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN JACK COUNTY
  SOUTHERN MONTAGUE COUNTY

AT 746 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BOWIE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
55 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE BOWIE...FORESTBURG AND
STONEBURG.

NICKEL-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT SATURDAY EVENING
FOR NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3362 9748 3348 9749 3343 9781 3343 9791
      3339 9792 3334 9823 3347 9825 3348 9799
      3369 9798 3378 9758
TIME...MOT...LOC 0046Z 244DEG 47KT 3347 9805

CAVANAUGH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
803 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0653 PM     TSTM WND DMG     OLNEY                   33.37N  98.77W
10/13/2012                   YOUNG              TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POWER LINES, POWER POLES, FENCES AND TREES REPORTED DOWN
            IN OLNEY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
811 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0653 PM     TSTM WND DMG     OLNEY                   33.36N 98.76W
10/13/2012                   YOUNG              TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POWER LINES, POWER POLES, FENCES AND TREES DOWN IN THE
            CITY OF OLNEY

&&

JGUDMEST

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
827 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

TXZ100-140200-
YOUNG TX-
827 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN YOUNG COUNTY

AT 827 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES EAST OF OLNEY...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE OLNEY.

PEA-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3340 9880 3340 9842 3327 9842 3325 9880
TIME...MOT...LOC 0127Z 260DEG 26KT 3337 9867

CAVANAUGH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
853 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

TXZ101-140230-
JACK TX-
853 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHERN JACK COUNTY

AT 853 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 19 MILES NORTHWEST OF JACKSBORO...MOVING EAST AT
45 MPH.

PENNY-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3347 9834 3347 9798 3343 9798 3343 9792
      3337 9792 3334 9842 3348 9843 3348 9834
TIME...MOT...LOC 0153Z 259DEG 38KT 3346 9829

CAVANAUGH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
911 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0905 PM     TSTM WND GST     SANDUSKY                33.77N  96.90W
10/13/2012  E65 MPH          GRAYSON            TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            WIND GUST 60 TO 65 MPH AT HWY 377 AND DIXIE RD