Severe Thunderstorm Warning 264, NWS Fort Worth, TX

471 
WWUS54 KFWD 130150
SVSFWD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
850 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2012

TXC217-251-130159-
/O.CAN.KFWD.SV.W.0264.000000T0000Z-120813T0230Z/
HILL TX-JOHNSON TX-
850 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL JOHNSON AND NORTH
CENTRAL HILL COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM HAS WEAKENED AND MOVED OUT OF HILL AND 
JOHNSON COUNTIES AND THUS THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

LAT...LON 3206 9691 3206 9695 3226 9708 3237 9708
      3244 9685 3223 9658
TIME...MOT...LOC 0149Z 330DEG 22KT 3227 9694

$$

TXC139-130230-
/O.CON.KFWD.SV.W.0264.000000T0000Z-120813T0230Z/
ELLIS TX-
850 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHERN ELLIS COUNTY...

AT 849 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF
60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MAYPEARL...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ITALY AND BARDWELL AROUND 905 PM CDT...
  MILFORD AROUND 910 PM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER IN A STRONG BUILDING AND
STAY INSIDE...AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 3206 9691 3206 9695 3226 9708 3237 9708
      3244 9685 3223 9658
TIME...MOT...LOC 0149Z 330DEG 22KT 3227 9694

$$


92

764 
WWUS54 KFWD 130200
SVSFWD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
900 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2012

TXC139-130210-
/O.CAN.KFWD.SV.W.0264.000000T0000Z-120813T0230Z/
ELLIS TX-
900 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN ELLIS COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

AT 900 PM CDT THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING
WEAKENED AND WAS NO LONGER SEVERE...THUS THE WARNING HAS BEEN
CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 3206 9691 3206 9695 3226 9708 3237 9708
      3244 9685 3223 9658
TIME...MOT...LOC 0200Z 330DEG 22KT 3221 9690

$$


92

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
823 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2012

.UPDATE...
HAVE CANCELLED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR AREAS ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM BRECKENRIDGE TO GAINESVILLE. POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE WATCH HAS
BEEN EXTENDED AS FAR SOUTH AS A LINE FROM COMANCHE TO HAMILTON TO
CORSICANA TO SULPHUR SPRINGS. NUMEROUS REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE HAVE
BEEN RECEIVED. THE WIND THREAT WILL DECREASE SLOWLY AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL. 84

&&

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. OUTFLOW
WINDS WILL BE QUITE VARIABLE...AND LOCALLY STRONG MICROBURST
POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 9 PM. OVERNIGHT...WINDS
WILL LIKELY RECOVER AND RETURN TO THE SOUTHWEST...AND AS WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACHES NEAR SUNRISE (METROPLEX) WINDS WILL VEER WEST AND
THEN NORTH.    84

&&

.PREV UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
ISSUING A QUICK UPDATE TO INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 573 IN
THE PACKAGE.  84

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2012/
ALTHOUGH THE PRIMARY MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DISAGREEMENT
REGARDING THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS EVENING...SHORT-TERM
MESOSCALE TRENDS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE WETTER NAM...HI-RES WRF
AND HRRR MODELS ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK. THE COLD FRONT IS MAKING
STEADY PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH AND AT 3 PM HAS PASSED THROUGH
WICHITA FALLS. HOWEVER OBS AND RADAR INDICATE A REGION OF LOW
LEVEL CONFLUENCE FROM ABILENE TO GRAHAM TO BOWIE. THIS AREA WILL
BE THE FAVORABLE REGION FOR INITIATION...AND CONVECTION LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL INITIATE WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LOCAL OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
INDICATES AN AXIS OF 1000-2500 J/KG OF CAPE ALONG AND EAST OF A
LINE FROM GAINESVILLE TO MINERAL WELLS TO LAMPASAS...WHILE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS NOW RUNNING NEAR 35KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
UNLIKE PREVIOUS SUMMERTIME CONVECTIVE EVENTS...IT HAS BEEN A
COUPLE MONTHS SINCE WE HAVE HAD THIS MUCH 0-6KM WIND SHEAR
AVAILABLE. GIVEN THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...BRIEF
SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT THE MOST LIKELY CONVECTIVE MODE
WILL BE LINE SEGMENTS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE 105+ ACROSS THE NW
ZONES AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 50S.
THIS WILL CREATE AN EXTREMELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DOWNBURSTS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT THIS
EVENING...AND BECAUSE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS AVAILABLE IT WILL ALSO
ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR LINE SEGMENTS PRODUCING ORGANIZED COLD
POOLS. STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS MAY IMPACT A MUCH WIDER AREA THAN
ACTUAL RAINFALL. WILL ALSO INCLUDE A MENTION OF HAIL IN
HWO..ALTHOUGH HOT TEMPS MAY LIMIT HAIL SIZE. THE SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CWA THIS EVENING...AND THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE PLACED IN A BAND
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA.

THE TRUE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BE TEMPORARILY HELD UP AS OUTFLOW
FROM CONVECTION OVER OUR AREA RESULTS IN PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHERLY
WINDS ON ITS NORTH SIDE. FRONT PROBABLY WILL NOT REACH THE
METROPLEX UNTIL DAYBREAK AND WILL LIKELY PUSH INTO THE SOUTHERN ZONES
BY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE TRICKY...WITH
LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON BENEFITING
FROM SUBSIDENCE WARMING AND THE TEMPS FORECAST HERE MAY BE TOO
LOW. ON THE OTHER HAND...CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THE FRONT
HAS A STRONG PUSH...AND THEREFORE AM LEANING TOWARD THE GUIDANCE
THAT SHOWS SOME DECENT COLD ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS ACROSS THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ZONES. WILL RETAIN A MENTION OF LOW POPS IN
THE SOUTHERN ZONES TOMORROW WHERE THE FRONT SHOULD BECOME ACTIVE
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS HAVING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE...EITHER AS EARLY AS TUESDAY MORNING AND AS LATE AS
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY. INSTABILITY/SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A MCS
OR REMNANT MCS OUTFLOW TO AFFECT THE AREA FROM OKLAHOMA DURING
THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN BY WEDNESDAY AND NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WEAKENS. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH...WHILE
TEMPS RETURN TO NEAR 100 DEGREES AREA WIDE THROUGH THURSDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...THE STRONGER COLD FRONT STILL LOOKS ON TRACK.
IT SHOULD ARRIVE FRIDAY MORNING AND GRADUALLY WORK SOUTH THROUGH
THE REGION INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS
STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTH...WITH 30 PERCENT EVERYWHERE
FRIDAY. WILL HAVE POPS GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON
SATURDAY. THE LINGERING POPS ON SATURDAY ARE FAVORING THE GFS
SOLUTION WHICH IS WEAKER WITH THE FRONT...AND MAKES SENSE GIVEN
THE TIME OF THE YEAR. THE WEAKER THE FRONT...THE LONGER IT WILL
TAKE FOR IT TO CLEAR OUT THE MOISTURE. REGARDLESS...HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOW 90S THIS WEEKEND DUE TO
EITHER LOWER THICKNESS VALUES AND/OR INCREASED CLOUDS/RAIN.

TR.92

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  77  99  73  98  76 /  40  10   5  10  20
WACO, TX              77 101  72 100  76 /  20  10  10  10  10
PARIS, TX             73  97  66  95  70 /  40  10   5  10  20
DENTON, TX            73  98  67  97  72 /  30   5   5  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          73  98  67  96  71 /  40  10   5  10  20
DALLAS, TX            78  99  74  98  76 /  40  10   5  10  20
TERRELL, TX           77  99  70  96  73 /  40  10   5  10  20
CORSICANA, TX         76 100  73  98  75 /  30  10   5  10  20
TEMPLE, TX            75 100  72 100  75 /  20  20  10  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     71 100  66  99  71 /  30   5   5  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

 /

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
821 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2012

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-140130-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
821 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 573 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM FOR AREAS
TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EASTLAND TO WEATHERFORD TO MCKINNEY TO
SHERMAN TO PARIS TO SULPHUR SPRINGS TO KAUFMAN TO CORSICANA TO
HAMILTON TO COMANCHE. THE WATCH WAS CANCELLED FOR COUNTIES
NORTHWEST OF THIS AREA.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS EVENING WILL
POTENTIALLY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS.
IN ADDITION...HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS AND DRY LIGHTNING WILL CREATE DANGEROUS FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS WHERE FIRES ARE ALREADY OCCURRING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST OF A KILLEEN TO
ATHENS LINE MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG ESPECIALLY
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM
COMANCHE TO CLEBURNE TO KAUFMAN TO SULPHUR SPRINGS THROUGH LATE
EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
714 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2012

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0713 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 W HALTOM CITY         32.80N  97.29W
08/12/2012  E66 MPH          TARRANT            TX   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            AT WFO FWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
715 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2012

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 W HALTOM CITY         32.80N  97.29W
08/12/2012  M73 MPH          TARRANT            TX   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            AT WFO FWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
725 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2012

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0708 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 W FORT WORTH          32.75N  97.44W
08/12/2012  M67 MPH          TARRANT            TX   ASOS

            MEASURED AT KNFW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
733 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2012

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     TSTM WND DMG     EAGLE MOUNTAIN          32.89N  97.44W
08/12/2012                   TARRANT            TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MARINA SUFFERED ROOF AND DOCK DAMAGE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
819 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2012

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0816 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 SW MIDLOTHIAN         32.43N  97.04W
08/12/2012  M80 MPH          ELLIS              TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            80 MPH WIND GUST 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF VENUS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
821 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2012

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0812 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NW VENUS              32.46N  97.16W
08/12/2012                   JOHNSON            TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            METAL BUILDINGS DAMAGED 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF VENUS