Severe Thunderstorm Warning 259, NWS Fort Worth, TX

304 
WWUS54 KFWD 130021
SVSFWD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
721 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2012

TXC133-130115-
/O.CON.KFWD.SV.W.0259.000000T0000Z-120813T0115Z/
EASTLAND TX-
721 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM CDT
FOR EASTLAND COUNTY...

AT 721 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF
65 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTH OF CISCO...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  EASTLAND AND RISING STAR AROUND 740 PM CDT...
  CARBON AROUND 750 PM CDT...
  GORMAN AROUND 815 PM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER IN A STRONG BUILDING AND
STAY INSIDE...AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 3227 9912 3251 9910 3246 9882 3236 9858
      3229 9849 3208 9892 3208 9911
TIME...MOT...LOC 0021Z 294DEG 17KT 3233 9897

$$


92

505 
WWUS54 KFWD 130047
SVSFWD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
747 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2012

TXC133-130115-
/O.CON.KFWD.SV.W.0259.000000T0000Z-120813T0115Z/
EASTLAND TX-
747 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHERN EASTLAND COUNTY...

AT 747 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF
60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CARBON...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  RISING STAR AROUND 750 PM CDT...
  GORMAN AROUND 805 PM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER IN A STRONG BUILDING AND
STAY INSIDE...AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 3227 9912 3228 9912 3236 9891 3225 9859
      3208 9892 3208 9911
TIME...MOT...LOC 0047Z 322DEG 20KT 3219 9888

$$


92

676 
WWUS54 KFWD 130112
SVSFWD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
812 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2012

TXC133-130122-
/O.EXP.KFWD.SV.W.0259.000000T0000Z-120813T0115Z/
EASTLAND TX-
812 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN EASTLAND COUNTY
EXPIRES AT 815 PM CDT...

AT 812 PM CDT THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING MOVED
OUT OF THE AREA AND THE WARNING EXPIRED.

RADAR INDICATED THAT HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WERE STILL POSSIBLE 
ACROSS SOUTHERN EASTLAND COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3227 9912 3228 9912 3236 9891 3225 9859
      3208 9892 3208 9911
TIME...MOT...LOC 0112Z 322DEG 20KT 3208 9878

$$


92

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
621 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2012

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. OUTFLOW
WINDS WILL BE QUITE VARIABLE...AND LOCALLY STRONG MICROBURST
POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 9 PM. OVERNIGHT...WINDS
WILL LIKELY RECOVER AND RETURN TO THE SOUTHWEST...AND AS WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACHES NEAR SUNRISE (METROPLEX) WINDS WILL VEER WEST AND
THEN NORTH.    84

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUING A QUICK UPDATE TO INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 573 IN
THE PACKAGE.  84

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2012/
ALTHOUGH THE PRIMARY MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DISAGREEMENT
REGARDING THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS EVENING...SHORT-TERM
MESOSCALE TRENDS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE WETTER NAM...HI-RES WRF
AND HRRR MODELS ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK. THE COLD FRONT IS MAKING
STEADY PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH AND AT 3 PM HAS PASSED THROUGH
WICHITA FALLS. HOWEVER OBS AND RADAR INDICATE A REGION OF LOW
LEVEL CONFLUENCE FROM ABILENE TO GRAHAM TO BOWIE. THIS AREA WILL
BE THE FAVORABLE REGION FOR INITIATION...AND CONVECTION LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL INITIATE WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LOCAL OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
INDICATES AN AXIS OF 1000-2500 J/KG OF CAPE ALONG AND EAST OF A
LINE FROM GAINESVILLE TO MINERAL WELLS TO LAMPASAS...WHILE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS NOW RUNNING NEAR 35KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
UNLIKE PREVIOUS SUMMERTIME CONVECTIVE EVENTS...IT HAS BEEN A
COUPLE MONTHS SINCE WE HAVE HAD THIS MUCH 0-6KM WIND SHEAR
AVAILABLE. GIVEN THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...BRIEF
SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT THE MOST LIKELY CONVECTIVE MODE
WILL BE LINE SEGMENTS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE 105+ ACROSS THE NW
ZONES AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 50S.
THIS WILL CREATE AN EXTREMELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DOWNBURSTS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT THIS
EVENING...AND BECAUSE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS AVAILABLE IT WILL ALSO
ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR LINE SEGMENTS PRODUCING ORGANIZED COLD
POOLS. STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS MAY IMPACT A MUCH WIDER AREA THAN
ACTUAL RAINFALL. WILL ALSO INCLUDE A MENTION OF HAIL IN
HWO..ALTHOUGH HOT TEMPS MAY LIMIT HAIL SIZE. THE SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CWA THIS EVENING...AND THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE PLACED IN A BAND
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA.

THE TRUE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BE TEMPORARILY HELD UP AS OUTFLOW
FROM CONVECTION OVER OUR AREA RESULTS IN PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHERLY
WINDS ON ITS NORTH SIDE. FRONT PROBABLY WILL NOT REACH THE
METROPLEX UNTIL DAYBREAK AND WILL LIKELY PUSH INTO THE SOUTHERN ZONES
BY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE TRICKY...WITH
LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON BENEFITING
FROM SUBSIDENCE WARMING AND THE TEMPS FORECAST HERE MAY BE TOO
LOW. ON THE OTHER HAND...CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THE FRONT
HAS A STRONG PUSH...AND THEREFORE AM LEANING TOWARD THE GUIDANCE
THAT SHOWS SOME DECENT COLD ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS ACROSS THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ZONES. WILL RETAIN A MENTION OF LOW POPS IN
THE SOUTHERN ZONES TOMORROW WHERE THE FRONT SHOULD BECOME ACTIVE
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS HAVING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE...EITHER AS EARLY AS TUESDAY MORNING AND AS LATE AS
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY. INSTABILITY/SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A MCS
OR REMNANT MCS OUTFLOW TO AFFECT THE AREA FROM OKLAHOMA DURING
THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN BY WEDNESDAY AND NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WEAKENS. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH...WHILE
TEMPS RETURN TO NEAR 100 DEGREES AREA WIDE THROUGH THURSDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...THE STRONGER COLD FRONT STILL LOOKS ON TRACK.
IT SHOULD ARRIVE FRIDAY MORNING AND GRADUALLY WORK SOUTH THROUGH
THE REGION INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS
STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTH...WITH 30 PERCENT EVERYWHERE
FRIDAY. WILL HAVE POPS GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON
SATURDAY. THE LINGERING POPS ON SATURDAY ARE FAVORING THE GFS
SOLUTION WHICH IS WEAKER WITH THE FRONT...AND MAKES SENSE GIVEN
THE TIME OF THE YEAR. THE WEAKER THE FRONT...THE LONGER IT WILL
TAKE FOR IT TO CLEAR OUT THE MOISTURE. REGARDLESS...HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOW 90S THIS WEEKEND DUE TO
EITHER LOWER THICKNESS VALUES AND/OR INCREASED CLOUDS/RAIN.

TR.92

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  77  99  73  98  76 /  40  10   5  10  20
WACO, TX              77 101  72 100  76 /  20  10  10  10  10
PARIS, TX             73  97  66  95  70 /  40  10   5  10  20
DENTON, TX            73  98  67  97  72 /  30   5   5  20  20
MCKINNEY, TX          73  98  67  96  71 /  40  10   5  10  20
DALLAS, TX            78  99  74  98  76 /  40  10   5  10  20
TERRELL, TX           77  99  70  96  73 /  40  10   5  10  20
CORSICANA, TX         76 100  73  98  75 /  30  10   5  10  20
TEMPLE, TX            75 100  72 100  75 /  20  20  10  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     71 100  66  99  71 /  30   5   5  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

 /

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
700 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2012

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-131215-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
700 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 573 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM FOR AREAS
ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM
COMANCHE...CLEBURNE...KAUFMAN...TO SULPHUR SPRINGS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND
WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM
LAMPASAS TO ATHENS THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH HIGHER CHANCES NORTH OF
THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS EVENING
WILL
POTENTIALLY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS.
IN ADDITION...HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS AND DRY LIGHTNING WILL CREATE DANGEROUS FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS WHERE FIRES ARE ALREADY OCCURRING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST OF A KILLEEN TO
ATHENS LINE MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG ESPECIALLY
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM
COMANCHE TO CLEBURNE TO KAUFMAN TO SULPHUR SPRINGS THROUGH LATE EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
644 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2012

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0642 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N KRUM                33.28N  97.25W
08/12/2012                   DENTON             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            THREE TO FOUR INCH TREE BRANCHES BLOWN DOWN JUST NORTH
            OF KRUM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
653 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2012

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0646 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 E AZLE                32.90N  97.48W
08/12/2012                   TARRANT            TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            THREE INCH TREE LIMBS BLOWN DOWN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
658 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2012

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0656 PM     TSTM WND GST     SAGINAW                 32.87N  97.37W
08/12/2012  E60 MPH          TARRANT            TX   AMATEUR RADIO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
704 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2012

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 W BOLIVAR             33.37N  97.32W
08/12/2012                   DENTON             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
705 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2012

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0701 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 S SAGINAW             32.84N  97.37W
08/12/2012  E76 MPH          TARRANT            TX   ASOS

            OBSERVED AT KFTW AIRPORT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
708 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2012

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0702 PM     TSTM WND GST     SAGINAW                 32.87N  97.37W
08/12/2012  M67 MPH          TARRANT            TX   TRAINED SPOTTER