Severe Thunderstorm Warning 8, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

015 
WWUS55 KFGZ 161906
SVSFGZ

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1206 PM MST MON JUL 16 2012

AZC005-161916-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.SV.W.0008.000000T0000Z-120716T1915Z/
COCONINO AZ-
1206 PM MST MON JUL 16 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WEST CENTRAL COCONINO COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 1215 PM MST...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THAT WAS LCOATED NORTH OF SUPAI WHICH 
PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED. HOWEVER THE STORM IS STILL 
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.

LAT...LON 3629 11280 3633 11275 3633 11274 3636 11271
      3635 11267 3640 11264 3646 11265 3650 11262
      3632 11252 3623 11280 3629 11283
TIME...MOT...LOC 1906Z 249DEG 20KT 3637 11261

$$

DB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
930 AM MST MON JUL 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY OVER
NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH SOME STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. BELOW
NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. AFTER TUESDAY...A DRYING
AND WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A TROUGH STILL REMAINS POSITIONED TO OUR WEST THIS
MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR EAST OVER TEXAS. THIS IS
RESULTING IN A MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER NORTHERN AZ.
PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING IS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
WHILE TEMPERATURES ALOFT HAVE COOLED SLIGHTLY PROVIDING MORE
INSTABILITY. A FEW STORMS HAVE ALREADY FIRED OVER LA PAZ/SOUTHERN
MOHAVE AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES THIS MORNING. OVERALL EXPECT ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. COVERAGE WILL BE A BIT HIGHER EAST OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME RESIDES. EXPECT THE
MAIN THREAT FROM STORMS TODAY TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. STRONGER STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE HAIL...BUT
EXPECT MOST OF IT TO BE SUB-SEVERE.

BY TUESDAY A SLOW DOWNWARD TREND IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ON A
DRYING SOUTHWEST FLOW ARE EXPECTED...SO THAT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE WIDELY SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

FRIDAY INTO THIS COMING WEEKEND...MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE FROM
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST...PUSHING THE REGION BACK INTO A SOMEWHAT LOW
GRADE TO MODERATE MONSOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER THE LOWER
TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA WITH
ISOLD +TSRA ONCE AGAIN TODAY. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS. A DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AFTER 05Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A VERY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS ARIZONA WILL KEEP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING TODAY. COOLER THAN NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE. BY TUESDAY...A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW
PUSHES THE DEEP MOISTURE PLUME EASTWARD WITH A DECREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER MOST
OF THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN AZ. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE
WITH LOWER AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES. MOISTURE MAY INCREASE AGAIN BY
FRIDAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC.........MCS/TC
AVIATION.......DJO
FIRE WEATHER...DJO

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
447 AM MST MON JUL 16 2012

AZZ004>018-037>040-170730-
KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-
COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY-
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-
OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
447 AM MST MON JUL 16 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
ARIZONA...NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...NORTHEAST ARIZONA AND WEST
CENTRAL ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT AND TONIGHT

A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND THIS EVENING WITH THE MOST NUMEROUS STORMS
FOUND ALONG THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM...WHITE MOUNTAINS CHUSKA
MOUNTAINS. SOME OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RESULTING IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
ADDITIONAL THREATS INCLUDE LIGHTNING...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...AND
HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.