Special Weather Statement, NWS Grand Forks, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
225 AM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUESDAY NIGHT)...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE SEVERE
CHANCES TODAY. 00Z NAM/ECMWF INITIALIZED BEST WITH SFC-850MB
MOISTURE AND WILL USE FOR DETAILS.

THERE SHOULD BE TWO SEPARATE PERIODS WHERE SEVERE PROBABILITIES
ARE HIGHEST. THE FIRST WILL BE THIS MORNING WITH APPROACHING
SEVERE COMPLEX TO THE SOUTHWEST. SPC HAS ISSUED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FA. THIS SEVERE COMPLEX
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE PROPAGATING INTO AREA OF HIGHEST MUCAPE FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ON THE NOSE OF 40 KNOT 850MB JET. MODEL
CONSENSUS IS THAT HIGHEST MUCAPE VALUES WILL BRUSH THE SOUTHERN
FA...AND NOSE OF LLJ WILL BE LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN FA. SURFACE
BOUNDARY HAS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE. THUS...MORNING SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO CURRENT WATCH AREA...AND LIMITED T+ MENTION
TO THIS AREA FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS (ALTHOUGH WEAKER COMPLEX
COULD CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN FA). THERE ARE POST
FRONTAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THAT
WILL LIKELY AFFECT MUCH OF THE WESTERN FA THIS MORNING
(INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY LIMITED WITHIN THIS AREA).

SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE EAST THROUGH
THE DAY. THE SECOND SEVERE THREAT WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. NOT SURE ABOUT CLOUD COVER AND MORNING
CONVECTION. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT ONLY THE FAR EASTERN FA
WILL BE ABLE TO HEAT AND OBTAIN MODERATE INSTABILITY. LIMITED T+
MENTION TO EAST OF THE VALLEY FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WHICH
LINES UP WITH CURRENT DAY 1 SWO.

UPPER LOW WILL BE NORTH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. COLD AIR ALOFT
COULD LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ON MONDAY...WITH POSSIBLE ADVISORY
CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH
RETURN FLOW BY TUESDAY NIGHT (AND POSSIBLE THUNDER).

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY)...SEASONABLY WARM AND MILD
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD...AS A PROGRESSIVE
MID/UPPER FLOW PATTERN GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SEVERAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH
THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE SYSTEMS REMAINS UNCERTAIN. 00Z GFS
AND 12Z ECMWF BOTH SUGGEST A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS FRI/SAT AS THE FLOW PATTERN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION IS LOW AT THIS POINT.
THUS...DID NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM LOADED POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
GENERALLY EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND
60S.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY ALONG AND WEST
OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS IN STRONGER STORMS. ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON IS
MOST LIKELY EAST OF THE VALLEY...AFFECTING KBJI. WINDS WILL REMAIN
WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY...EXCEPT FOR KBJI WHICH WILL BE SOUTHERLY
AND SWITCH TO WEST THIS EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

TG/MAKOWSKI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
638 AM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-111200-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH-EDDY-NELSON-GRAND FORKS-
GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-RICHLAND-
WESTERN WALSH-
638 AM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHERN RED
RIVER VALLEY INTO MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. STRONG WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND A
TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXIST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

TG

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