Severe Thunderstorm Warning 106, NWS Grand Forks, ND

678 
WWUS53 KFGF 032121
SVSFGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
421 PM CDT FRI AUG 3 2012

NDC039-071-032130-
/O.CAN.KFGF.SV.W.0106.000000T0000Z-120803T2200Z/
GRIGGS ND-RAMSEY ND-
421 PM CDT FRI AUG 3 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL RAMSEY COUNTY IN
NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...AND NORTHEASTERN GRIGGS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST
NORTH DAKOTA IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED 
AREA.

LAT...LON 4803 9847 4802 9842 4805 9842 4832 9794
      4773 9741 4767 9781 4767 9817 4782 9824
      4801 9850
TIME...MOT...LOC 2120Z 239DEG 29KT 4792 9800

$$

NDC035-063-099-032200-
/O.CON.KFGF.SV.W.0106.000000T0000Z-120803T2200Z/
GRAND FORKS ND-NELSON ND-WALSH ND-
421 PM CDT FRI AUG 3 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
WALSH...NELSON AND WESTERN GRAND FORKS COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

AT 416 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THE STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES
SOUTH OF PETERSBURG...OR 41 MILES EAST OF DEVILS LAKE...MOVING TO THE
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  WHITMAN...PETERSBURG AND LOGAN CENTER AROUND 425 PM CDT.
  NIAGARA AROUND 435 PM CDT.
  NORTHWOOD...KEMPTON AND DAHLEN AROUND 440 PM CDT.
  LARIMORE AND MCCANNA AROUND 445 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING.

&&

LAT...LON 4803 9847 4802 9842 4805 9842 4832 9794
      4773 9741 4767 9781 4767 9817 4782 9824
      4801 9850
TIME...MOT...LOC 2120Z 239DEG 29KT 4792 9800
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

PR/BB

515 
WWUS53 KFGF 032147
SVSFGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
447 PM CDT FRI AUG 3 2012

NDC035-063-099-032157-
/O.CAN.KFGF.SV.W.0106.000000T0000Z-120803T2200Z/
GRAND FORKS ND-NELSON ND-WALSH ND-
447 PM CDT FRI AUG 3 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL WALSH...NELSON
AND WESTERN GRAND FORKS COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND MOVED OUT OF
THE WARNED AREA.

LAT...LON 4803 9847 4802 9842 4805 9842 4832 9794
      4773 9741 4767 9781 4767 9817 4782 9824
      4801 9850
TIME...MOT...LOC 2147Z 239DEG 29KT 4803 9772

$$

PR/BB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
221 PM CDT FRI AUG 3 2012

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MONDAY)...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE SEVERE
POTENTIAL. 12Z MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND FOR
DETAILS. SITUATION APPEARS TO BE UNFOLDING AS EXPECTED. SURFACE
BOUNDARY/COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE EASTWARD INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AS FORCING (SEEN BY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEHIND THIS FEATURE) MOVES INTO THE AREA
OF HIGHER INSTABILITY (WEAKER CIN) EXPECT MORE SURFACE BASED AND
THUS STRONGER STORMS...LIKELY BY 20Z-21Z. EXPECTING A STRONG LINE
OF STORMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST...MUCH LIKE
THE HRRR HAS BEEN SUGGESTING. THE MAIN QUESTION AT THIS POINT IS
WHETHER OR NOT VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER (50+ KNOTS) ENTERING THE
WESTERN FA AFTER 00Z WILL INTERACT WITH THE LINE OF STORMS. THE
STRONGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY LAG THE STORMS...BUT INCREASING
SHEAR SHOULD HELP AID ORGANIZED ACTIVITY. SEE SWODY1/SWOMCD
1691/WATCH 553 FOR MORE DETAILS. MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO
POP/WX GRIDS BASED ON EXPECTED TIMING.

SATURDAY...UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE THROUGH THE REGION.
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDER.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH WARMING AIRMASS WILL BE
THE GENERAL RULE. A WEAK FROPA IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY...BUT DRY
AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND NO PRECIP EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHARE SAME
BASIC LARGE-SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN NEXT WEEK...BUT DIFFER QUITE A
BIT IN DETAIL. WITH RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND A
HUDSON BAY TROUGH...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. BOTH GFS/ECMWF PAINT PERIODS OF LIGHT QPF TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH WEAK EMBEDDED SHORT-
WAVES...SO WILL MAINTAIN ALL BLEND 20 TO 30 POPS. NO REAL CHANGE
IN AIR MASS...SO TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE 80S DURING THE
DAY TO THE 60S AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL ND WILL MOVE
EAST- NORTHEASTWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...IMPACTING
ALL TAF SITES. SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND AND
LARGE HAIL. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY MAY ALSO DROP INTO THE
MVFR/IFR RANGE WITH STRONGER STORMS. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WIND
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AFTER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

TG/ROGERS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
554 AM CDT FRI AUG 3 2012

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-041100-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH-EDDY-NELSON-GRAND FORKS-
GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-RICHLAND-
WESTERN WALSH-
554 AM CDT FRI AUG 3 2012

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT
FOR ALL OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES FROM 3 PM UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR TORNADOES IS EXPECTED ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA INTO
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

A STRONG COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...CAUSING THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

DK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
329 PM CDT FRI AUG 3 2012

NDZ007-008-032130-
CAVALIER ND-PEMBINA ND-
329 PM CDT FRI AUG 3 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN PEMBINA AND
NORTHEASTERN CAVALIER COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

AT 325 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF LANGDON...MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST
AT 20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE STORM.

THE STORM WILL BE NEAR...
VANG AROUND 340 PM CDT.
WALHALLA AROUND 405 PM CDT.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IF THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND BECOME
SEVERE...OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4900 9827 4900 9768 4877 9825 4893 9843
      4901 9830
TIME...MOT...LOC 2029Z 233DEG 18KT 4889 9822

ROGERS