Severe Thunderstorm Warning 105, NWS Grand Forks, ND

093 
WWUS53 KFGF 032042
SVSFGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
342 PM CDT FRI AUG 3 2012

NDC005-027-039-063-071-032115-
/O.CON.KFGF.SV.W.0105.000000T0000Z-120803T2115Z/
BENSON ND-EDDY ND-GRIGGS ND-NELSON ND-RAMSEY ND-
342 PM CDT FRI AUG 3 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
RAMSEY...SOUTHWESTERN NELSON...EASTERN EDDY AND SOUTHEASTERN BENSON
COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...AND NORTHWESTERN GRIGGS COUNTY
IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

AT 339 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THE STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES
SOUTH OF HAMAR...OR 28 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DEVILS LAKE...MOVING TO THE
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  RED WILLOW LAKE AND HAMAR AROUND 350 PM CDT.
  TOLNA AROUND 355 PM CDT.
  STUMP LAKE AND PEKIN AROUND 405 PM CDT.
  MCVILLE AROUND 410 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING.

&&

LAT...LON 4758 9861 4786 9888 4808 9848 4771 9807
TIME...MOT...LOC 2042Z 239DEG 28KT 4776 9858
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

ROGERS

191 
WWUS53 KFGF 032115
SVSFGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
415 PM CDT FRI AUG 3 2012

NDC005-027-039-063-071-032125-
/O.EXP.KFGF.SV.W.0105.000000T0000Z-120803T2115Z/
BENSON ND-EDDY ND-GRIGGS ND-NELSON ND-RAMSEY ND-
415 PM CDT FRI AUG 3 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL RAMSEY...
SOUTHWESTERN NELSON...EASTERN EDDY AND SOUTHEASTERN BENSON COUNTIES
IN NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...AND NORTHWESTERN GRIGGS COUNTY IN
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA HAS EXPIRED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA.

LAT...LON 4758 9861 4786 9888 4808 9848 4771 9807
TIME...MOT...LOC 2042Z 239DEG 28KT 4776 9858

$$

PR/BB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
221 PM CDT FRI AUG 3 2012

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MONDAY)...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE SEVERE
POTENTIAL. 12Z MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLEND FOR
DETAILS. SITUATION APPEARS TO BE UNFOLDING AS EXPECTED. SURFACE
BOUNDARY/COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE EASTWARD INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AS FORCING (SEEN BY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEHIND THIS FEATURE) MOVES INTO THE AREA
OF HIGHER INSTABILITY (WEAKER CIN) EXPECT MORE SURFACE BASED AND
THUS STRONGER STORMS...LIKELY BY 20Z-21Z. EXPECTING A STRONG LINE
OF STORMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST...MUCH LIKE
THE HRRR HAS BEEN SUGGESTING. THE MAIN QUESTION AT THIS POINT IS
WHETHER OR NOT VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER (50+ KNOTS) ENTERING THE
WESTERN FA AFTER 00Z WILL INTERACT WITH THE LINE OF STORMS. THE
STRONGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY LAG THE STORMS...BUT INCREASING
SHEAR SHOULD HELP AID ORGANIZED ACTIVITY. SEE SWODY1/SWOMCD
1691/WATCH 553 FOR MORE DETAILS. MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO
POP/WX GRIDS BASED ON EXPECTED TIMING.

SATURDAY...UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE THROUGH THE REGION.
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDER.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH WARMING AIRMASS WILL BE
THE GENERAL RULE. A WEAK FROPA IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY...BUT DRY
AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND NO PRECIP EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHARE SAME
BASIC LARGE-SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN NEXT WEEK...BUT DIFFER QUITE A
BIT IN DETAIL. WITH RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND A
HUDSON BAY TROUGH...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. BOTH GFS/ECMWF PAINT PERIODS OF LIGHT QPF TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH WEAK EMBEDDED SHORT-
WAVES...SO WILL MAINTAIN ALL BLEND 20 TO 30 POPS. NO REAL CHANGE
IN AIR MASS...SO TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE 80S DURING THE
DAY TO THE 60S AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL ND WILL MOVE
EAST- NORTHEASTWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...IMPACTING
ALL TAF SITES. SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND AND
LARGE HAIL. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY MAY ALSO DROP INTO THE
MVFR/IFR RANGE WITH STRONGER STORMS. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WIND
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AFTER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

TG/ROGERS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
554 AM CDT FRI AUG 3 2012

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-041100-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH-EDDY-NELSON-GRAND FORKS-
GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-RICHLAND-
WESTERN WALSH-
554 AM CDT FRI AUG 3 2012

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT
FOR ALL OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES FROM 3 PM UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR TORNADOES IS EXPECTED ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA INTO
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

A STRONG COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...CAUSING THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

DK