Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
750 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 209 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GEORGIA REMAINS UNDER THE WEAKENED EASTERN END OF THE CENTRAL U.S.
RIDGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK SHORT WAVE TRAVELS DOWN THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT...BUT MAIN
EFFECTS FROM THIS FEATURE REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. RIDGE APPEARS STRONG ENOUGH FOR CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BUT NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS SCATTERED...MAINLY
DIURNAL...CONVECTION. PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE
APPALACHIANS WILL PROVIDE SOME LOW LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AS WELL. ALTHOUGH STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND AMPLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WEAK SHEAR AND A LACK OF A STRONG FOCUSING MECHANISM
SHOULD KEEP SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT LIMITED TO ISOLATED. WITH
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S...AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES REMAIN UNCOMFORTABLY HIGH...BUT
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

20

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT LONG TERM. PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

/ISSUED 258 AM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012/
AS THE LONG TERM BEGINS...LOOKS AS THOUGH SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN
NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE ONGOING IN ITS PASSAGE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL SHUNT SURFACE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED BEST MOISTURE SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY AND WILL INDICATE A
POP DISTRIBUTION FAVORING THE SOUTHERN TIER FOR BEST CHANCES. THIS
GENERAL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO WEEKS END AND THE WEEKEND
ALTHOUGH AT TIMES ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ENHANCE RAIN
CHANCES EVEN NORTH OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. STRONGER BELT OF
SHORTWAVES AND MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS WEST. SHOULD SEE RAIN CHANCES
HIGHER THAN CLIMO FOR ALL AREAS SHOULD CURRENT MODELS PROJECTIONS
VERIFY.

BASED ON RECENT TRENDS...FEEL MORE ACTIVE PATTERN AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUDS AND PRECIP WARRANT A LOWERING OF TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED.
THIS WILL TAKE THE ADVERTISED UPPER 90S OF THE MEX AND KNOCK THEM
BACK TO THE MID 90S.
/17
DEESE

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MOSTLY KMCN THROUGH
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THE REST OF THE TAF SITES ARE DEALING WITH
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT ARE MAKING WIND DIRECTIONS MORE
VARIABLE. WINDS SHOULD RETURN TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT VFR
EXCEPT FOR KAHN AND KMCN WHICH MIGHT SEE MVFR OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW
SHOULD BE MUCH LIKE TODAY WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTION.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON THUNDERSTORM TIMING TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

ARG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          73  96  73  96 /  30  30  30  40
ATLANTA         76  94  76  95 /  30  30  30  40
BLAIRSVILLE     69  91  68  91 /  30  30  30  30
CARTERSVILLE    69  95  69  96 /  30  30  30  40
COLUMBUS        76  96  75  94 /  30  30  30  50
GAINESVILLE     74  94  74  93 /  30  30  30  40
MACON           74  97  72  96 /  30  30  30  50
ROME            69  96  70  97 /  30  30  30  40
PEACHTREE CITY  69  95  69  93 /  30  30  30  50
VIDALIA         75  96  75  95 /  30  30  30  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ARG
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...ARG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
827 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-041100-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
827 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TONIGHT...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA TONIGHT.

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ACROSS
THE AREA AS A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE REMAINS
STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT WILL BE
SMALL HAIL... 40 MPH WIND GUSTS... OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE
THE STATE TONIGHT. INSTABILITIES WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD HELP HOLD THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT BELOW SEVERE LIMITS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEK ENHANCING THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY SCATTERED COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FOR
MOST AREAS THIS WEEK ALTHOUGH THE FOCUS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AFTER WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
803 PM EDT TUE JUL 03 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0543 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PERRY                   32.46N 83.73W
07/03/2012                   HOUSTON            GA   911 CALL CENTER

            HOUSTON COUNTY 911 CENTER REPORTED DIME SIZE HAIL AND 11
            TREES BLOWN DOWN DUE TO THUNDERSTORM WINDS. LIGHTNING
            ALSO CAUSED A STRUCTURE FIRE.

&&

NMAYES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
816 PM EDT TUE JUL 03 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0542 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FAYETTEVILLE            33.45N 84.45W
07/03/2012                   FAYETTE            GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWER LINES WERE REPORTED DOWN ON HOOD RD AND HWY 85.

&&

AGIBBS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
824 PM EDT TUE JUL 03 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     LIGHTNING        1 S WARNER ROBINS       32.60N 83.63W
07/03/2012                   HOUSTON            GA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            BROADCAST MEDIA STATIONS FROM MACON ARE REPORTING UP TO
            FOUR STRUCTURES ON FIRE FROM LIGHTNING STRIKES.

&&

AGIBBS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
824 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

GAZ005-040100-
824 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 35 MPH WINDS
IN MURRAY COUNTY UNTIL 900 PM EDT...

AT 822 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER RAMHURST...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
MURRAY COUNTY THROUGH 900 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS
STORM INCLUDE NORTH GEORGIA SPEEDWAY...CHATSWORTH...RAMHURST...FORT
MOUNTAIN STATE PARK AND CARTERS. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3477 8463 3474 8465 3458 8466 3460 8472
      3461 8473 3460 8472 3462 8471 3463 8473
      3461 8475 3461 8487 3462 8488 3479 8484
TIME...MOT...LOC 0024Z 280DEG 6KT 3469 8475

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
834 PM EDT TUE JUL 03 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     TSTM WND DMG     IRWINTON                32.81N 83.17W
07/03/2012                   WILKINSON          GA   911 CALL CENTER

            WILKINSON 911 RELAYED A REPORT OF SIX TREES DOWN
            COUNTYWIDE WITH THIS STORM.

&&

AGIBBS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
842 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

GAZ013-014-021-040115-
842 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 35 MPH WINDS
IN PICKENS...CHEROKEE AND DAWSON COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM EDT...

AT 841 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER LAKE TAMARACK...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
PICKENS...CHEROKEE AND DAWSON COUNTIES THROUGH 915 PM EDT. SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE FAUSETT LAKE...SEQUOYAH
LAKE...LAKE TAMARACK...JASPER...TATE...MARBLEHILL...NELSON...JUNO...
BALL GROUND...REAVIS MOUNTAIN...HOLLIS LATHEM RESERVOIR AND
DAWSONVILLE. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3458 8432 3440 8407 3433 8423 3433 8426
      3432 8426 3423 8438 3448 8452 3455 8443
      3455 8437 3457 8437 3457 8435
TIME...MOT...LOC 0042Z 322DEG 14KT 3446 8435