Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
750 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 209 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GEORGIA REMAINS UNDER THE WEAKENED EASTERN END OF THE CENTRAL U.S.
RIDGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK SHORT WAVE TRAVELS DOWN THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT...BUT MAIN
EFFECTS FROM THIS FEATURE REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. RIDGE APPEARS STRONG ENOUGH FOR CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BUT NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS SCATTERED...MAINLY
DIURNAL...CONVECTION. PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE
APPALACHIANS WILL PROVIDE SOME LOW LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AS WELL. ALTHOUGH STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND AMPLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WEAK SHEAR AND A LACK OF A STRONG FOCUSING MECHANISM
SHOULD KEEP SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT LIMITED TO ISOLATED. WITH
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S...AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES REMAIN UNCOMFORTABLY HIGH...BUT
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

20

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT LONG TERM. PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

/ISSUED 258 AM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012/
AS THE LONG TERM BEGINS...LOOKS AS THOUGH SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN
NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE ONGOING IN ITS PASSAGE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL SHUNT SURFACE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED BEST MOISTURE SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY AND WILL INDICATE A
POP DISTRIBUTION FAVORING THE SOUTHERN TIER FOR BEST CHANCES. THIS
GENERAL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO WEEKS END AND THE WEEKEND
ALTHOUGH AT TIMES ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ENHANCE RAIN
CHANCES EVEN NORTH OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. STRONGER BELT OF
SHORTWAVES AND MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS WEST. SHOULD SEE RAIN CHANCES
HIGHER THAN CLIMO FOR ALL AREAS SHOULD CURRENT MODELS PROJECTIONS
VERIFY.

BASED ON RECENT TRENDS...FEEL MORE ACTIVE PATTERN AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUDS AND PRECIP WARRANT A LOWERING OF TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED.
THIS WILL TAKE THE ADVERTISED UPPER 90S OF THE MEX AND KNOCK THEM
BACK TO THE MID 90S.
/17
DEESE

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MOSTLY KMCN THROUGH
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THE REST OF THE TAF SITES ARE DEALING WITH
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT ARE MAKING WIND DIRECTIONS MORE
VARIABLE. WINDS SHOULD RETURN TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT VFR
EXCEPT FOR KAHN AND KMCN WHICH MIGHT SEE MVFR OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW
SHOULD BE MUCH LIKE TODAY WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTION.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON THUNDERSTORM TIMING TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

ARG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          73  96  73  96 /  30  30  30  40
ATLANTA         76  94  76  95 /  30  30  30  40
BLAIRSVILLE     69  91  68  91 /  30  30  30  30
CARTERSVILLE    69  95  69  96 /  30  30  30  40
COLUMBUS        76  96  75  94 /  30  30  30  50
GAINESVILLE     74  94  74  93 /  30  30  30  40
MACON           74  97  72  96 /  30  30  30  50
ROME            69  96  70  97 /  30  30  30  40
PEACHTREE CITY  69  95  69  93 /  30  30  30  50
VIDALIA         75  96  75  95 /  30  30  30  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ARG
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...ARG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
424 AM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-040830-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
424 AM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ACROSS
THE AREA AS A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE REMAINS
STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM THE ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
QUARTER SIZED HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN. THE BEST TIME FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING.

.DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE TROUGH AND HIGH INSTABILITY WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE. CONTINUED COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND JUST
ENOUGH FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR LARGE HAIL IN THE STRONGER
STORMS. IN ADDITION...MOST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF ENHANCED
DOWNDRAFT PARAMETERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEK ENHANCING THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY SCATTERED COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FOR
MOST AREAS THIS WEEK ALTHOUGH THE FOCUS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AFTER WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
758 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

GAZ108>111-040030-
758 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING IN WILCOX...
WHEELER...TELFAIR AND DODGE COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM EDT...

AT 753 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM JORDAN TO OWENSBORO...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5
MPH.

IN ADDITION TO THE EXCESSIVE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...THESE
STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 35 MPH AS THEY MOVE ACROSS WILCOX...WHEELER...TELFAIR AND DODGE
COUNTIES THROUGH 830 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE
STORMS INCLUDE LITTLE OCMULGEE STATE PARK...LANDSBURG...SPRING
HILL...JORDAN...GLENWOOD...ALAMO...WORKMORE...TOWNS...TEMPERANCE...SC
OTLAND...MILAN...HELENA...MCRAE...ACHORD AND RHINE. HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3178 8305 3180 8309 3180 8314 3184 8318
      3185 8361 3196 8361 3211 8330 3219 8302
      3215 8299 3229 8265 3204 8261 3197 8254
      3192 8261 3192 8267 3179 8285 3178 8289
TIME...MOT...LOC 2357Z 309DEG 4KT 3205 8262 3188 8300
          3189 8345

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
800 PM EDT TUE JUL 03 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0542 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 S SANDY CREEK         33.47N 84.56W
07/03/2012                   FAYETTE            GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FAYETTE COUNTY EMA RELAYED A REPORT OF A TREE DOWN ON A
            BARN. A DONKEY WAS CAUGHT INSIDE AND THE FIRE DEPARTMENT
            WAS THERE EXTRICATING IT.

&&

AGIBBS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
803 PM EDT TUE JUL 03 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0543 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PERRY                   32.46N 83.73W
07/03/2012                   HOUSTON            GA   911 CALL CENTER

            HOUSTON COUNTY 911 CENTER REPORTED DIME SIZE HAIL AND 11
            TREES BLOWN DOWN DUE TO THUNDERSTORM WINDS. LIGHTNING
            ALSO CAUSED A STRUCTURE FIRE.

&&

NMAYES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
816 PM EDT TUE JUL 03 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0542 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FAYETTEVILLE            33.45N 84.45W
07/03/2012                   FAYETTE            GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWER LINES WERE REPORTED DOWN ON HOOD RD AND HWY 85.

&&

AGIBBS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
824 PM EDT TUE JUL 03 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     LIGHTNING        1 S WARNER ROBINS       32.60N 83.63W
07/03/2012                   HOUSTON            GA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            BROADCAST MEDIA STATIONS FROM MACON ARE REPORTING UP TO
            FOUR STRUCTURES ON FIRE FROM LIGHTNING STRIKES.

&&

AGIBBS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
824 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

GAZ005-040100-
824 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 35 MPH WINDS
IN MURRAY COUNTY UNTIL 900 PM EDT...

AT 822 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER RAMHURST...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
MURRAY COUNTY THROUGH 900 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS
STORM INCLUDE NORTH GEORGIA SPEEDWAY...CHATSWORTH...RAMHURST...FORT
MOUNTAIN STATE PARK AND CARTERS. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3477 8463 3474 8465 3458 8466 3460 8472
      3461 8473 3460 8472 3462 8471 3463 8473
      3461 8475 3461 8487 3462 8488 3479 8484
TIME...MOT...LOC 0024Z 280DEG 6KT 3469 8475