Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
909 AM EDT TUE JUN 5 2012

.UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA THIS MORNING...AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UP TO ACCOUNT FOR
LATEST RADAR TRENDS. WITH INSTABILITIES LIMITED THIS
MORNING...ONLY EXPECTING THE OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING ACTIVITY. HI RES
SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATING AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND WITH THIS
MAIN RAIN AREA...WITH SOME CLEARING CONDITIONS INTO THE AFTERNOON
PROMOTING STRONGER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AFTER 18Z. FOR
NOW...HAVE MADE REVISIONS TO THE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS BASED
ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS...AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE WX GRIDS TO SUIT
THE UPDATED POPS AND LATEST MODELED INSTABILITY GUIDANCE.

UPDATES TO THE FORECAST WILL BE MADE AS NEEDED THROUGH THE
MORNING...THOUGH ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WILL LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
/ISSUED 401 AM EDT TUE JUN 5 2012/
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS ALMOST A REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT. SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO NORTH GEORGIA AT THE
MOMENT. MODELS INDICATE THESE STORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO GEORGIA. THE MODELS SHOW THIS WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST
ALONG THE GA/SC BORDER TODAY. THIS WAVE IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ALSO.
THIS FRONT SHOULD ACT AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TO REFIRE ALONG. INSTABILITIES ALSO PEAK
THIS BETWEEN 18Z-00Z WITH MUCAPES GETTING TO NEAR 3000 J/KG AND
LIS IN THE -2 TO -4 RANGE. ONCE THIS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...DRIER
AIR IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PUSH INTO NW GA THROUGH WED/THU. TEMPS
WILL STAY NEAR SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

01

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
/ISSUED 401 AM EDT TUE JUN 5 2012/

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO BEING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH
SURFACE TROUGH SOUTH OF THE AREA FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST
THROUGH SOUTH GEORGIA AND THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF COAST STATES.
MOISTURE IS LARGELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE...BUT ENOUGH
INTO OUR FORECAST AREA TO WARRANT LOW END POPS DURING THE
AFTERNOON PERIOD THURSDAY. TROUGH SINKS FURTHER SOUTH
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF RETURN FLOW ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE STATE BY THE ECMWF. WITH GFS DRIER AND
MOISTURE NOT IMPRESSIVE BY OTHER MODELS...WILL KEEP FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND DRY. MATTERS COMPLICATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS GFS
KEEPS CAROLINAS HIGH IN CONTROL ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS AND LIMITED POPS. ECMWF BREAKS DOWN RIDGE MUCH FASTER
WITH GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN FULL EFFECT BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WILL USE A BLEND FOR THIS CYCLE WHICH BRINGS LOW END CHANCE POPS
FOR MAINLY THE WESTERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA.

DEESE

AVIATION...
/ISSUED 725 AM EDT TUE JUN 5 2012/
12Z UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE ATL AREA. THESE
STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH OF ATL BY 15Z TO 16Z. THESE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE SOUTH. SHOULD ONLY SEE
SHOWERS AT THE ATL AREA AIRPORTS BUT THUNDER IS TO CLOSE TO PULL
IT OUT OF THE FORECAST. WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE NW THROUGH
THIS EVENING THEN TURN TO THE NE AFTER 00Z. WIND SPEEDS WILL STAY
IN THE 5-10KT RANGE WITH SOME GUST IN THE 15-18KT RANGE. CEILINGS
WILL STAY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT IN AND AROUND SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPMENT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          80  61  81  59 / 100  20  30  10
ATLANTA         81  63  80  63 / 100  20  20  10
BLAIRSVILLE     76  53  78  54 /  90  20  20  10
CARTERSVILLE    81  60  81  55 / 100  20  10  10
COLUMBUS        88  67  86  66 /  90  30  30  10
GAINESVILLE     79  61  79  60 / 100  20  20  10
MACON           87  65  86  63 /  90  30  30  20
ROME            84  60  84  56 / 100  20  10  10
PEACHTREE CITY  83  64  81  56 /  90  20  20  10
VIDALIA         87  67  84  66 /  70  60  40  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...31

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
444 AM EDT TUE JUN 5 2012

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-060845-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
444 AM EDT TUE JUN 5 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS.

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ANCHORED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST IS
ALLOWING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO COME SWEEPING INTO THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. IN ADDITION...NUMEROUS SURFACE BOUNDARIES ARE
DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...WITH THE MOST PROMINENT FRONT
EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE
STRONG WINDS TO 60 MPH...QUARTER SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...MAINLY THIS MORNING OVER NORTH GEORGIA AND THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DISCUSSION...
THE LAST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY WITH CONVECTION ONGOING OVER EXTREME NORTH GEORGIA. BECAUSE
OF THE TIMING...INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MARGINAL FOR SEVERE STORM
DEVELOP INITIALLY...BUT GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE LINE OF STORMS APPROACHES CENTRAL GEORGIA. COOL TEMPS ALOFT
ALONG WITH A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE DRYING CONDITIONS MOVE
IN FOR THE WEEKEND WHEN LITTLE OR NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST INFORMATION FOR POSSIBLE
ACTIVATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1239 PM EDT TUE JUN 5 2012

GAZ090-091-102-103-051730-
1239 PM EDT TUE JUN 5 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREQUENT LIGHTNING IN WEBSTER...
STEWART...MARION AND CHATTAHOOCHEE COUNTIES UNTIL 130 PM EDT...

AT 1236 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORM AROUND JAMESTOWN/SOUTH FORT BENNING...MOVING
EAST AT 30 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS WEBSTER...STEWART...MARION AND CHATTAHOOCHEE COUNTIES THROUGH
130 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE
OMAHA...LOUVALE...JAMESTOWN/SOUTH FORT BENNING...CUSSETA...
CHRISTOPHER...BROOKLYN...RENFROE...MANTA...ZELLOBEE...SEMINOLE...
BRANTLEY...CHURCH HILL AND BUENA VISTA. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
NOAA WEATHER RADIO...WEATHER.GOV OR OTHER MEDIA OUTLETS FOR FURTHER
STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE WARNINGS ON THESE STORMS.

&&

LAT...LON 3211 8506 3218 8503 3219 8499 3223 8497
      3223 8493 3225 8492 3226 8490 3230 8496
      3236 8493 3238 8449 3216 8452
TIME...MOT...LOC 1639Z 276DEG 24KT 3231 8487

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1259 PM EDT TUE JUN 05 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 PM     HAIL             4 S JEFFERSON           34.06N 83.57W
06/05/2012  E1.75 INCH       JACKSON            GA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL OCCURRED NEAR HWY 358 AND PROSPECT
            CHURCH RD AREA NOT FAR FROM I-16.

1240 PM     HAIL             3 SW PERRY              32.43N 83.77W
06/05/2012  E1.00 INCH       HOUSTON            GA   PUBLIC

            NEAR 1100 BLOCK OF THIRD STREET IN PERRY

1240 PM     HAIL             1 SSE EASTMAN           32.19N 83.17W
06/05/2012  E0.75 INCH       DODGE              GA   PUBLIC

            PENNY SIZE HAIL OCCURRED ON FREAMON GRAHAM BLVD IN
            EASTMAN

&&

SNELSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
102 PM EDT TUE JUN 5 2012

GAZ066-067-078-079-089-051745-
102 PM EDT TUE JUN 5 2012

AT 1259 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM PINE MOUNTAIN-CALLAWAY GARDENS TO
ELLERSLIE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DIME SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS TROUP...TALBOT...MUSCOGEE...MERIWETHER AND HARRIS COUNTIES
THROUGH 145 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS
INCLUDE WHITESVILLE-PINE LAKE...MOUNTAIN HILL...PINE MOUNTAIN
VALLEY...MULBERRY GROVE...FORTSON...CATAULA...ELLERSLIE...HAMILTON...
CANNONVILLE...SMITHS CROSSROAD...BAUGHS CROSSROADS...JONES
CROSSROADS...LONG CANE...LAGRANGE AND F.D. ROOSEVELT STATE PARK.
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
NOAA WEATHER RADIO...WEATHER.GOV OR OTHER MEDIA OUTLETS FOR FURTHER
STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE WARNINGS ON THESE STORMS.

&&

LAT...LON 3317 8500 3319 8463 3303 8453 3292 8453
      3282 8445 3262 8448 3257 8506 3264 8511
      3267 8510 3269 8512 3273 8512 3275 8515
      3278 8513 3281 8517 3284 8516 3287 8519
      3311 8524
TIME...MOT...LOC 1703Z 248DEG 18KT 3288 8489 3278 8472
          3262 8475

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
114 PM EDT TUE JUN 5 2012

GAZ052-066-067-069-078-079-089>091-051800-
114 PM EDT TUE JUN 5 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DIME SIZED HAIL AND 45 MPH WINDS
IN TROUP...TALBOT...MUSCOGEE...MERIWETHER...MARION...UPSON...
CHATTAHOOCHEE...HARRIS AND HEARD COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM EDT...

AT 113 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16 MILES WEST OF FROLONA TO SHILOH...MOVING
EAST AT 20 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DIME SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS TROUP...TALBOT...MUSCOGEE...MERIWETHER...MARION...UPSON...
CHATTAHOOCHEE...HARRIS AND HEARD COUNTIES THROUGH 200 PM EDT. SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE UPATOI...MIDLAND...LAKE
HARDING...WHITESVILLE-PINE LAKE...MOUNTAIN HILL...MULBERRY GROVE...
FORTSON...CATAULA...ELLERSLIE...WAVERLY HALL...HAMILTON...WEST
POINT...PINE MOUNTAIN VALLEY...BOX SPRINGS AND BAUGHVILLE. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
NOAA WEATHER RADIO...WEATHER.GOV OR OTHER MEDIA OUTLETS FOR FURTHER
STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE WARNINGS ON THESE STORMS.

&&

LAT...LON 3341 8507 3337 8499 3322 8494 3322 8487
      3319 8486 3322 8484 3323 8470 3319 8460
      3308 8452 3297 8452 3299 8445 3274 8426
      3272 8434 3259 8441 3250 8469 3257 8506
      3281 8517 3284 8516 3287 8519 3339 8529
TIME...MOT...LOC 1714Z 269DEG 18KT 3338 8550 3291 8524
          3276 8474

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
126 PM EDT TUE JUN 05 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 PM     HAIL             4 S JEFFERSONVILLE      32.63N 83.34W
06/05/2012  E1.75 INCH       TWIGGS             GA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL OCCURRED NEAR HWY 358 AND PROSPECT
            CHURCH RD AREA NOT FAR FROM I-16.

&&

SNELSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
129 PM EDT TUE JUN 5 2012

GAZ097-098-109-111-112-051800-
129 PM EDT TUE JUN 5 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NICKEL SIZED HAIL IN WHEELER...
TREUTLEN...MONTGOMERY...LAURENS AND DODGE COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM
EDT...

AT 127 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM TARRYTOWN TO DUBOIS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
40 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE NICKEL SIZED HAIL...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS THEY
MOVE ACROSS WHEELER...TREUTLEN...MONTGOMERY...LAURENS AND DODGE
COUNTIES THROUGH 200 PM EDT. THESE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL BUT HAVE SINCE WEAKENED. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE TARRYTOWN...YONKERS...RODDY...
EMPIRE...BARNHILL...LOWERY...RENTZ...CADWELL...KIBBEE...DUBOIS...
GRESSTON...PLAINFIELD...EASTMAN...HIGGSTON AND CEDAR GROVE. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3226 8336 3232 8328 3234 8330 3236 8328
      3239 8300 3232 8256 3226 8243 3213 8246
      3215 8252 3211 8290 3213 8294 3215 8294
      3210 8297 3209 8302
TIME...MOT...LOC 1728Z 300DEG 33KT 3228 8255 3234 8290
          3230 8330