Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
401 AM EDT TUE JUN 5 2012

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS ALMOST A REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT. SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO NORTH GEORGIA AT THE
MOMENT. MODELS INDICATE THESE STORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO GEORGIA. THE MODELS SHOW THIS WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST
ALONG THE GA/SC BORDER TODAY. THIS WAVE IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ALSO.
THIS FRONT SHOULD ACT AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TO REFIRE ALONG. INSTABILITIES ALSO PEAK
THIS BETWEEN 18Z-00Z WITH MUCAPES GETTING TO NEAR 3000 J/KG AND
LIS IN THE -2 TO -4 RANGE. ONCE THIS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...DRIER
AIR IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PUSH INTO NW GA THROUGH WED/THU. TEMPS
WILL STAY NEAR SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

01

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO BEING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH
SURFACE TROUGH SOUTH OF THE AREA FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST
THROUGH SOUTH GEORGIA AND THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF COAST STATES.
MOISTURE IS LARGELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE...BUT ENOUGH
INTO OUR FORECAST AREA TO WARRANT LOW END POPS DURING THE
AFTERNOON PERIOD THURSDAY. TROUGH SINKS FURTHER SOUTH
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF RETURN FLOW ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE STATE BY THE ECMWF. WITH GFS DRIER AND
MOISTURE NOT IMPRESSIVE BY OTHER MODELS...WILL KEEP FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND DRY. MATTERS COMPLICATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS GFS
KEEPS CAROLINAS HIGH IN CONTROL ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS AND LIMITED POPS. ECMWF BREAKS DOWN RIDGE MUCH FASTER
WITH GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN FULL EFFECT BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WILL USE A BLEND FOR THIS CYCLE WHICH BRINGS LOW END CHANCE POPS
FOR MAINLY THE WESTERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA.

DEESE

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE ATL AREA TAF SITES
UNTIL 11Z THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE SOUTH SO
ONLY HAVE SHRA IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE
NW THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN TURN TO THE NE AFTER 00Z. WIND SPEEDS
WILL STAY IN THE 5-10KT RANGE WITH SOME GUST IN THE 15-18KT RANGE.
CEILINGS WILL STAY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT IN AND AROUND
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          79  61  79  59 /  40  10  20  20
ATLANTA         82  64  80  63 /  40  10  20  20
BLAIRSVILLE     75  56  74  55 /  30  10  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    82  59  80  57 /  30  10  20  20
COLUMBUS        88  68  85  66 /  50  20  40  20
GAINESVILLE     78  62  77  60 /  40  10  20  20
MACON           86  65  82  62 /  50  30  50  20
ROME            84  59  83  58 /  30  10  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  83  61  80  58 /  40  10  20  20
VIDALIA         85  68  82  67 /  50  40  50  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...01

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
444 AM EDT TUE JUN 5 2012

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-060845-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
444 AM EDT TUE JUN 5 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS.

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ANCHORED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST IS
ALLOWING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO COME SWEEPING INTO THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. IN ADDITION...NUMEROUS SURFACE BOUNDARIES ARE
DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...WITH THE MOST PROMINENT FRONT
EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE
STRONG WINDS TO 60 MPH...QUARTER SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...MAINLY THIS MORNING OVER NORTH GEORGIA AND THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DISCUSSION...
THE LAST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY WITH CONVECTION ONGOING OVER EXTREME NORTH GEORGIA. BECAUSE
OF THE TIMING...INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MARGINAL FOR SEVERE STORM
DEVELOP INITIALLY...BUT GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE LINE OF STORMS APPROACHES CENTRAL GEORGIA. COOL TEMPS ALOFT
ALONG WITH A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE DRYING CONDITIONS MOVE
IN FOR THE WEEKEND WHEN LITTLE OR NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST INFORMATION FOR POSSIBLE
ACTIVATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
506 AM EDT TUE JUN 5 2012

GAZ001-002-050930-
506 AM EDT TUE JUN 5 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN WALKER AND DADE COUNTIES UNTIL 530 AM EDT...

AT 503 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM HYTOP ALABAMA TO SOUTH PITTSBURG
TENNESSEE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS WALKER AND DADE COUNTIES THROUGH 530 AM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN
THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE COLE CITY...HOOKER...MORGANVILLE...
CHICKAMAUGA...COOPER HEIGHTS...CHATTANOOGA VALLEY...FAIRVIEW...
LOOKOUT MOUNTAIN...STEPHENSVILLE...WILDWOOD...CLOUDLAND CANYON STATE
PARK...TRENTON AND NEW ENGLAND. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS.

THESE WIND GUSTS MAY PRODUCE MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOW
LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS AROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 3499 8527 3486 8526 3485 8520 3484 8520
      3476 8557 3498 8561 3499 8560
TIME...MOT...LOC 0905Z 307DEG 26KT 3502 8563 3492 8610