Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
307 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA. WITHIN THIS
TROUGH...DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED NICELY WITH LOWER TO MID 50S VALUES
ALLOWING FOR SUPPRESSED CONVECTIVE INITIATION. SURFACE MOISTURE
IS MORE PLENTIFUL OVER NORTHWEST ZONES WHERE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
ACTIVITY IS MOVING INTO THE AREA AT THIS HOUR.

MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE OF THE SHORT TERM IS UPPER LOW MOVING
THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA AS EVIDENCED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. IT
ALSO SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA
AND WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE ON CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. TO GO
ALONG WITH THIS DRY AIR IS A COLD POOL WITH TEMPS AROUND -16C AT
500 MB ALLOWING FOR INCREASED MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ARE
MOST LIKELY TO SEE THE INFLUENCES OF RESIDUAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE
AND APPROACHING COLD POOL. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF LIKELY
POPS FOR EASTERN ZONES THROUGH THIS EVENING AS WELL AS THE
ADVERTISEMENT OF SCT SEVERE. MAY BE DIFFICULT TO GET ROBUST
ACTIVITY GOING BUT ONCE IT GOES...FEEL LIKE SEVERE HAIL WILL NOT
BE DIFFICULT TO COME BY.

UPPER LOW WILL HAVE LARGELY SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA BY WED
BUT SECONDARY LOBE WILL ROTATE THROUGH NORTH ALABAMA AND GEORGIA
LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECTING MOISTURE TO ONLY BE SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT CONVECTION OVER EXTREME NORTH GEORGIA AND WILL CARRY LOW
END SCATTERED POPS THERE. ALTHOUGH NOT AS COLD AS TODAY...TEMPS
ALOFT WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL.

DEESE

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECAST TO
INCLUDE POPS INTO THE EVENING HOURS ON THURSDAY AS OROGRAPHICALLY
INDUCED THUNDERSTORMS MAY LAST PAST 00Z. IN ADDITION...MADE SLIGHT
CHANGES TO THE MAX TEMPS IN THE LONG TERM AT RMG TO BRING THE
HIGH TEMP DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO. OVERALL...PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
DISCUSSION STILL HOLDS.

11

/ISSUED 417 AM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012/
LONG TERM GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MAIN INFLUENCING
SYNOPTIC FEATURES. AS A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE EAST CENTRAL
CONUS DAMPENS OUT AND EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD BY THURSDAY... A STRONG
UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY AND PERSIST INTO MONDAY. THE GFS HAS A BIT STRONGER RIDGING
AND FARTHER EASTWARD SETUP THAN THE ECMWF... NONETHELESS A RATHER
WARM AND STAGNANT PATTERN LOOKS TO BE THE RULE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH FOR MOST AFTERNOON AND EVENING
PERIODS DUE TO WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW AND OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT. WHILE
HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MOSTLY THE NORTHERN PORTION... THE
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS THE RIDGE FINALLY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN.

FOR TEMPS...MEX GUIDANCE LOOKED REASONABLE SO MADE ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH THE WARMEST DAYS BEING FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS MANY
AREAS ARE PROGGED TO REACH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S.

BAKER

&&

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
INITIAL TSRA DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO BE TAKING PLACE EAST OF THE ATL
TERMINALS BUT SHOULD AFFECT AHN BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. COLD POOL
ALOFT COMING ACROSS HOWEVER REQUIRES A SHORT TERM TEMPO FOR ALL TAF
SITES. DRY AIR AT THE MID LEVELS LOOKS TO RESULT IN POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG GUSTS IN TSRA DEVELOPMENT AND HAVE INCLUDED THESE IN TEMPO
AS WELL. UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST ON WED AND EXPECT TSRA POTENTIAL TO
BE CONFINED TO EXTREME NORTH GEORGIA AND OUTSIDE OF THE TERMINALS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON CONVECTION...HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          58  87  62  87 /  20  20  20  20
ATLANTA         60  84  65  88 /  20  10  10   5
BLAIRSVILLE     53  80  54  82 /  30  20  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    51  84  57  87 /  20  10  10  10
COLUMBUS        61  88  66  90 /  20  10  10   5
GAINESVILLE     58  83  63  82 /  20  20  20  20
MACON           58  90  62  91 /  20  20  10   5
ROME            52  87  55  89 /  20  10  20  20
PEACHTREE CITY  52  84  57  87 /  20  10  10   5
VIDALIA         66  89  70  94 /  20  20  20   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....11/BAKER
AVIATION...DEESE

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
427 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

GAZ001>007-014-222100-
427 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING IN
WHITFIELD...WALKER...MURRAY...CATOOSA...DADE...DAWSON...FANNIN AND
GILMER COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

AT 425 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER MILL CREEK...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DIME SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS WHITFIELD...WALKER...MURRAY...CATOOSA...DADE...DAWSON...FANNIN
AND GILMER COUNTIES THROUGH 500 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF
THESE STORMS INCLUDE MILL CREEK...DALTON...ROCKY FACE...DAWNVILLE...
TUNNEL HILL...VARNELL...WOOD STATION...BEAUMONT...RINGGOLD...
VILLANOW...SUTTLES MILL...NAOMI...ROCK SPRING...NOBLE AND ETON. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3498 8421 3452 8429 3453 8434 3457 8435
      3455 8465 3458 8465 3460 8472 3463 8473
      3461 8486 3464 8491 3462 8506 3459 8506
      3460 8552 3498 8561
TIME...MOT...LOC 2027Z 320DEG 12KT 3472 8500

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
458 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

GAZ001>005-007-011>014-019-222130-
458 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING IN
WHITFIELD...WALKER...PICKENS...MURRAY...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...DADE...
DAWSON...FLOYD...GILMER AND GORDON COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

AT 454 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM CEDAR GROVE TO ELLIJAY...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 15 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DIME SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS WHITFIELD...WALKER...PICKENS...MURRAY...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...
DADE...DAWSON...FLOYD...GILMER AND GORDON COUNTIES THROUGH 530 PM
EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE CEDAR
GROVE...SEQUOYAH LAKE...TALKING ROCK...BLAINE...OOSTANAULA...
CALHOUN...RANGER...OAKMAN...REDBUD...AUDUBON...NICKELSVILLE...
RESACA...SUGAR VALLEY...EVERETT SPRINGS AND LAKE MARVIN. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3497 8462 3485 8462 3485 8442 3484 8439
      3484 8438 3482 8433 3477 8429 3447 8431
      3442 8490 3441 8550 3498 8557
TIME...MOT...LOC 2058Z 224DEG 14KT 3471 8536 3469 8490
          3474 8447

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
543 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

GAZ011>014-019>022-222215-
543 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREQUENT LIGHTNING IN PICKENS...
BARTOW...CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...DAWSON...FLOYD...FORSYTH AND GORDON
COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM EDT...

AT 541 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUMMERVILLE TO SILVER CITY...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DIME SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS PICKENS...BARTOW...CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...DAWSON...FLOYD...
FORSYTH AND GORDON COUNTIES THROUGH 615 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE HIGHTOWER...COAL MOUNTAIN...MATT...
SILVER CITY...BALL GROUND...WALESKA...LAKE ARROWHEAD...SALACOA
VALLEY...REAVIS MOUNTAIN...HOLLIS LATHEM RESERVOIR...NELSON...PINE
LOG...FUNKHOUSER...FOLSOM AND ADAIRSVILLE. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3459 8549 3449 8414 3446 8409 3442 8399
      3441 8398 3424 8406 3429 8478 3430 8547
TIME...MOT...LOC 2144Z 222DEG 9KT 3450 8536 3444 8467
          3438 8415