Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
344 PM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SUMMER LIKE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT.
A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE AROUND THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS...WITH THE CWA ON THE
TRAILING END. TIMING AND LOCATION OF CONVECTION MAINLY DEPENDENT
ON MODERATE INSTABILITY...AFTERNOON HEATING AND LOCATION OF ANY
LEFT OVER SURFACE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. OVERALL SHEAR REMAINS WEAK.
MAIN THREAT SEEMS TO BE HAIL BUT HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE PROBLEMS
TEMPORARILY IN SOME AREAS. HAVE GENERALLY FAVORED NORTH GEORGIA
WITH HIGHER POPS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM BUT DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE ANYWHERE IN THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL BUT MAY LOCALLY BE AFFECTED BY CLOUDS AND RAIN.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. A MAINLY
DIURNAL PATTERN FOR POPS LOOKS REASONABLE AND HAVE MADE NO
CHANGES. GFS AND ECMWF IN SOME AGREEMENT THAT THE TROUGH WILL
ADVANCE INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE ONLY TWEAK WAS TO INCLUDE CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
INCREASE POPS A BIT FOR THURSDAY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED
BELOW.

41

.PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
/742 AM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012/
GFS/ECMWF MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH EXTENDED PERIODS. BOTH
MODELS DEEPEN LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY MIDWEEK. THIS ALLOWS
NARROW RIDGING OVER THE EAST TO BUILD NORTHWARD. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW WEAK IMPULSES ROTATING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE...ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH AND EAST GEORGIA SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BEFORE
SHIFTING FURTHER EAST BY TUESDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS IN
THE ONE TO ONE AND ONE-QUARTER INCH RANGE THROUGH THURSDAY
HOWEVER... AND WITH SUMMER LIKE PATTERN IN PLACE...THERE WILL
STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION
EACH AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A SLOWER ADVANCEMENT OF
THE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH SYSTEM STILL
WEST OF FORECAST AREA BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TEN TO TWENTY DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL REMAIN BELOW RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES.

12

&&

CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 03-16

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      82 1945     37 1960     62 2002     19 1890
   KATL      84 1945     34 1900     64 2002     18 1890
   KCSG      85 2002     51 1969     65 2002     27 1988
                                                    1949
   KMCN      87 1955     42 1900     65 1942     26 1916

RECORDS FOR 03-17

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      85 1945     39 2005     62 1945     23 1924
   KATL      86 1945     38 1892     65 2002     23 1895
   KCSG      88 2002     45 2005     67 2002     30 1981
                                                    1954
   KMCN      88 1945     44 2005     65 1908     27 1988

RECORDS FOR 03-18

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      87 1921     45 1998     63 1908     23 1967
                                                    1941
                                                    1902
   KATL      84 1982     30 1892     67 1908     20 1902
   KCSG      89 1982     49 1988     64 1982     29 1967
   KMCN      88 1908     43 1902     67 1908     28 2007
                                                    1941

RECORDS FOR 03-19

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      86 1982     45 1947     61 1908     22 1892
   KATL      85 1982     44 1892     65 1927     17 1892
   KCSG      88 1982     52 2001     66 1948     30 1985
                                                    1960
   KMCN      88 1963     49 1947     64 1982     26 1967
                                        1945        1902
                                        1927

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS TIMING OF THE CONVECTION. ALL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A 19Z TO 02Z TIME FRAME FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS. WENT TEMPO TS AT ALL TAF SITES AND WILL ADJUST
THIS TEMPO WHEN STORMS START TO INITIATE IN ORDER TO BETTER NAIL
DOWN THE TIMING. OTHERWISE TOMORROW LOOKS LIKE A REPEAT OF TODAY
WEATHER WISE WITH NO VISBY OR CEILING CONCERNS EXCEPT FOR MCN
WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE AM TOMORROW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF CONVECTION AT KATL...HIGH CONFIDENCE
ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

26

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          55  84  57  84 /  40  30  30  30
ATLANTA         60  81  61  82 /  40  30  30  20
BLAIRSVILLE     52  76  52  77 /  50  40  40  30
CARTERSVILLE    53  81  52  82 /  50  30  30  20
COLUMBUS        59  84  60  85 /  30  30  20  20
GAINESVILLE     56  80  58  81 /  40  30  30  30
MACON           55  84  58  85 /  30  30  20  20
ROME            54  82  55  84 /  50  30  30  20
PEACHTREE CITY  52  81  54  82 /  40  30  20  20
VIDALIA         60  84  60  83 /  20  30  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

41

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
604 AM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-171015-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
604 AM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO COMBINE WITH WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING TO KEEP A WARM...MOIST AIRMASS OVER GEORGIA.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL AND CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM 2PM
TO 10 PM.

.DISCUSSION...
A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. BY THIS
AFTERNOON...CAPES WILL INCREASE TO 1500-2000 ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA AS IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW. THESE IMPULSES WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED SEVERE ACTIVITY. STRONG WINDS AND HAIL
WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
515 PM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012

GAZ080-081-093-094-162145-
515 PM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL IN PEACH...
MACON...TAYLOR AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM EDT...

AT 514 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER HICKS...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
PEACH...MACON...TAYLOR AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES THROUGH 545 PM EDT. SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE HICKS...POTTERVILLE...
REYNOLDS...WINCHESTER...MARSHALLVILLE...NAKOMIS AND LEE POPE. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3260 8408 3262 8392 3241 8388 3242 8409
      3249 8414 3257 8414
TIME...MOT...LOC 2115Z 262DEG 7KT 3250 8405

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
524 PM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012

GAZ053-162200-
524 PM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL IN COWETA COUNTY
UNTIL 600 PM EDT...

AT 523 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER NEWNAN...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
COWETA COUNTY THROUGH 600 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS
STORM INCLUDE NEWNAN...MADRAS...THOMAS CROSSROADS...TURIN AND
SHARPSBURG. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3347 8463 3339 8460 3328 8459 3331 8481
      3342 8483
TIME...MOT...LOC 2125Z 268DEG 8KT 3337 8478

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
527 PM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012

GAZ086-162200-
527 PM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NICKEL SIZED HAIL AND 50 MPH
WINDS IN EMANUEL COUNTY UNTIL 600 PM EDT...

AT 523 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CANOOCHEE...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE NICKEL SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
EMANUEL COUNTY THROUGH 600 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS
STORM INCLUDE CANOOCHEE...TWIN CITY...GEORGE L SMITH STATE PARK AND
GARFIELD. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO...WEATHER.GOV OR OTHER MEDIA
OUTLETS FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE WARNINGS ON THESE STORMS.

&&

LAT...LON 3255 8202 3254 8203 3255 8208 3254 8211
      3260 8231 3277 8226 3275 8211 3266 8208
      3261 8200
TIME...MOT...LOC 2127Z 285DEG 6KT 3266 8218

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
537 PM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012

GAZ071-082-162200-
537 PM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL IN MONROE AND BIBB
COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM EDT...

AT 532 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER LAKE TOBESOFKEE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15
MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
MONROE AND BIBB COUNTIES THROUGH 600 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE LIZELLA...LAKE TOBESOFKEE...WESLEYAN...
MIDDLE GEORGIA REGIONAL AIRPORT...CROSS KEYS...SKIPPERTON...
RUTLAND...PAYNE CITY AND MACON. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3270 8374 3273 8381 3277 8385 3280 8386
      3282 8389 3285 8389 3285 8393 3291 8387
      3293 8376 3283 8353 3267 8364
TIME...MOT...LOC 2137Z 301DEG 13KT 3285 8381

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
539 PM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012

GAZ110-162215-
539 PM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PENNY SIZED HAIL AND 45 MPH WINDS
IN TELFAIR COUNTY UNTIL 615 PM EDT...

AT 538 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NORTHWEST OF LUMBER CITY...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PENNY SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
TELFAIR COUNTY THROUGH 615 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS
STORM INCLUDE SCOTLAND...TOWNS AND LUMBER CITY. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO...WEATHER.GOV OR OTHER MEDIA
OUTLETS FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE WARNINGS ON THESE STORMS.

&&

LAT...LON 3190 8294 3207 8287 3205 8281 3202 8278
      3201 8273 3196 8270 3193 8265 3191 8265
      3192 8267 3190 8269 3185 8275 3185 8277
      3184 8279
TIME...MOT...LOC 2139Z 291DEG 6KT 3195 8280

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
549 PM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012

GAZ086-162215-
549 PM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NICKEL SIZED HAIL AND 45 MPH
WINDS IN EMANUEL COUNTY UNTIL 615 PM EDT...

AT 547 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM CANOOCHEE TO LEXSY...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE NICKEL SIZED HAIL...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS THEY
MOVE ACROSS EMANUEL COUNTY THROUGH 615 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE LEXSY...CANOOCHEE...NUNEZ...GEORGE L
SMITH STATE PARK...STILLMORE...GARFIELD AND TWIN CITY. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

HAIL UP TO HALF AN INCH IN DIAMETER HAS BEEN REPORTED BY THE PUBLIC
IN EMANUEL COUNTY WITH THESE STORMS.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO...WEATHER.GOV OR OTHER MEDIA
OUTLETS FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE WARNINGS ON THESE STORMS.

&&

LAT...LON 3254 8203 3255 8208 3251 8215 3243 8218
      3237 8223 3242 8239 3244 8238 3246 8242
      3273 8218 3273 8210 3266 8208 3261 8200
TIME...MOT...LOC 2149Z 270DEG 6KT 3266 8213 3251 8227