Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
800 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

...EARLY SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
/ISSUED 216 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012/

LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS FROM SE SURFACE
HIGH HAS CONTINUED TO SHIFT SOUTH...NOW SITUATED FROM OFFSHORE THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH SOUTH GEORGIA AND THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA.
MOIST RETURN FLOW IN RESULTANT SOUTHWEST WIND IS ALLOWING FOR
DEWPOINTS TO SURGE INTO THE LOWER 60S OVER NORTHWEST GEORGIA.
COMBINED WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S ALREADY AND WE ARE SEEING
IMPRESSIVE CAP VALUES OVER 2500 J/KG...VERY UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. AS SUCH...RADAR VERY MUCH RESEMBLES A SUMMER TYPE REGIME
WITH ACTIVITY INITIATING OVER THE NE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING WITH A
SLOW DRIFT SOUTHWARD.

EXPECT AREAS TO THE WEST TO FILL IN AS WELL BASED ON ADEQUATE
INSTABILITY WITH AREA SHIFTING SOUTH TO AFFECT MUCH OF NORTH
GEORGIA THROUGH THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE CERTAINLY NOT
SUMMER YET WITH FREEZING LEVEL JUST ABOVE 10K...SO WILL NOT TAKE
MUCH TO GET HAIL OUT OF THESE STORMS. GIVEN EXPECTED UPDRAFTS THIS
EVENING...HAVE ADDED MENTION OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS TO HAZARDS
AND GRAPHICAST. IN ADDITION...DCAPE ANALYSIS SHOWS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG DOWNDRAFTS IN THE MORE SIGNIFICANT CELLS THIS EVENING.

ALTHOUGH A MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE WANE
OVERNIGHT...NAM12 DOES TRY TO GEN UP ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY FROM 06Z
THROUGH 12Z AND WILL KEEP IN LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR THIS PERIOD.
GOING INTO FRIDAY...WILL CERTAINLY START OFF WITH MORE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE AREA WHICH MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY THROUGH MORNING...BUT
SHOULD SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY BETWEEN 500MB-
700MB THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TRAJECTORY OF THIS
ACTIVITY STILL FAVORS NORTH GEORGIA AND WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS IN
THIS REGION. THIS IS STILL SHY OF THE NAM12 WILL REMAINS BULLISH
WITH POPS...INDICATING NEAR CATEGORICAL. SHOULD SEE SIMILAR
THREATS TO TODAY...BUT MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE
CAN SUSTAIN WITH THE CLOUD COVER.

SURFACE TROUGH SETTLES INTO THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY AND THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED HIGH END CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY...COULD CERTAINLY SEE
THE NEED FOR THESE POPS TO BE RAISED TO LIKELY WITH SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS SHOULD TRENDS CONTINUE. THIS WOULD BE ESPECIALLY TRUE
FOR AREAS OF EXTREME NORTH AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED 216 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012/
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH GOOD MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIODS TO BRING DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION ACROSS THE
AREA. BY MONDAY IMPULSES SLIDE FURTHER TO THE EAST...ALTHOUGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS IN THE ONE TO ONE AND ONE-QUARTER INCH
RANGE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS. WHILE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT...THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOONS...ESPECIALLY
OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA AS EASTERLY FLOW BRINGS IN
ADDITIONAL ATLANTIC MOISTURE. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TEN
TO FIFTEEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL
REMAIN BELOW RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES.

DEESE

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 03-15

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      84 1921     43 1960     62 1990     19 1993
                                        1989
   KATL      81 1973     39 1901     64 1989     20 1993
                1946
   KCSG      83 1989     44 1960     66 1973     21 1993
   KMCN      86 1977     42 1960     65 1990     20 1993
                                        1973

RECORDS FOR 03-16

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      82 1945     37 1960     62 2002     19 1890
   KATL      84 1945     34 1900     64 2002     18 1890
   KCSG      85 2002     51 1969     65 2002     27 1988
                                                    1949
   KMCN      87 1955     42 1900     65 1942     26 1916

RECORDS FOR 03-17

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      85 1945     39 2005     62 1945     23 1924
   KATL      86 1945     38 1892     65 2002     23 1895
   KCSG      88 2002     45 2005     67 2002     30 1981
                                                    1954
   KMCN      88 1945     44 2005     65 1908     27 1988

RECORDS FOR 03-18

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      87 1921     45 1998     63 1908     23 1967
                                                    1941
                                                    1902
   KATL      84 1982     30 1892     67 1908     20 1902
   KCSG      89 1982     49 1988     64 1982     29 1967
   KMCN      88 1908     43 1902     67 1908     28 2007
                                                    1941

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS THE
AREA...AND REMAIN FOCUSED NORTHWEST OF THE ATLANTA METRO AREA. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW PRECIP CHANCES
EXPECTED AGAIN FRIDAY...GENERALLY AFTER 16Z. HIGHEST TS CHANCES IN
THE AFTERNOON...AND HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE PROB30 FOR 18-24Z.
LIGHT AND VRB WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SW AT 4-6KTS THROUGH THE
DAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND IMPACT OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CIGS...VSBYS...AND WINDS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          58  79  56  83 /  40  40  50  50
ATLANTA         64  81  63  81 /  30  40  40  50
BLAIRSVILLE     56  72  53  76 /  50  60  50  50
CARTERSVILLE    58  80  52  80 /  40  50  40  40
COLUMBUS        60  79  58  82 /  30  40  20  40
GAINESVILLE     60  78  58  81 /  40  50  50  50
MACON           56  80  56  84 /  20  30  30  40
ROME            58  80  58  82 /  40  50  40  40
PEACHTREE CITY  55  81  55  81 /  30  40  30  50
VIDALIA         60  81  60  85 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

31/DEESE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1155 AM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-161015-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1155 AM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED SEVERE POSSIBLE OVER PRIMARILY
NORTH GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AND WILL
COMBINE WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO KEEP A WARM...MOIST
AIRMASS OVER GEORGIA.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORM WILL BE STRONG WIND
GUSTS...LARGE HAIL AND CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING IN THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY. THE BEST TIME FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM 4 PM TO 10
PM...GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM LA GRANGE...TO
GRIFFIN...TO GREENSBORO.

.DISCUSSION...
A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. THIS AFTERNOON...CAPES
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 1000 ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS FAR NORTH GEORGIA.
THIS PROXIMITY OF THIS IMPULSE WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED SEVERE ACTIVITY. STRONG WINDS
AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
800 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

GAZ005-007-012-013-160030-
800 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DIME SIZED HAIL AND 45 MPH WINDS
IN PICKENS...MURRAY...GILMER AND GORDON COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM EDT...

AT 758 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM RANGER TO TALKING ROCK...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 45 MPH ARE LIKELY AS THESE STORMS MOVE ACROSS
PICKENS...MURRAY...GILMER AND GORDON COUNTIES THROUGH 830 PM EDT.
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE TALMADGE...
JASPER...TALKING ROCK...BLAINE...HINTON...CALHOUN...SONORAVILLE...
FAIRMOUNT...RANGER...REDBUD...AUDUBON...NICKELSVILLE...SEQUOYAH
LAKE...OAKMAN AND CARTECAY.

&&

LAT...LON 3474 8426 3467 8425 3466 8423 3458 8430
      3458 8434 3453 8434 3438 8448 3438 8458
      3441 8459 3442 8472 3440 8474 3439 8503
      3475 8478
TIME...MOT...LOC 0001Z 225DEG 14KT 3450 8475 3455 8446

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
809 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

GAZ019-020-030-160045-
809 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DIME SIZED HAIL AND 45 MPH WINDS
IN POLK...BARTOW AND FLOYD COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM EDT...

AT 803 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEAR TAYLORSVILLE AND KINGSTON...MOVING NORTH
AT 10 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DIME SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS POLK...BARTOW AND FLOYD COUNTIES THROUGH 845 PM EDT. SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE SENEY...TAYLORSVILLE...
STILESBORO...LINDALE...EUHARLEE...EMERSON...CARTERSVILLE...
KINGSTON...CASSVILLE...ADAIRSVILLE...SHANNON AND PINSON. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3440 8508 3439 8498 3440 8498 3439 8496
      3440 8492 3440 8474 3442 8473 3441 8465
      3436 8466 3435 8464 3435 8466 3408 8466
      3408 8492 3402 8495 3409 8522
TIME...MOT...LOC 0008Z 194DEG 7KT 3413 8503

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
812 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

GAZ003-004-160045-
812 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN WHITFIELD AND CATOOSA COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM EDT...

AT 808 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR VARNELL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
WHITFIELD AND CATOOSA COUNTIES THROUGH 845 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN
THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE TUNNEL HILL...RINGGOLD...SALEM...
VARNELL...COHUTTA AND BEAVERDALE. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3496 8482 3493 8484 3490 8483 3489 8483
      3488 8482 3487 8482 3479 8507 3496 8516
      3499 8508 3499 8482
TIME...MOT...LOC 0012Z 245DEG 11KT 3491 8501

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
843 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

GAZ004-160115-
843 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NICKEL SIZED HAIL AND 45 MPH
WINDS IN WHITFIELD COUNTY UNTIL 915 PM EDT...

AT 840 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR COHUTTA...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE NICKEL SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
WHITFIELD COUNTY THROUGH 915 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF
THIS STORM INCLUDE BEAVERDALE AND COHUTTA. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3497 8482 3493 8484 3491 8483 3489 8483
      3488 8497 3497 8499 3499 8498 3499 8482
TIME...MOT...LOC 0043Z 258DEG 17KT 3498 8488

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
851 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

GAZ001>003-160130-
851 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 40 MPH WINDS IN WALKER...CATOOSA
AND DADE COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM EDT...

AT 847 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 27 MILES NORTH OF GRAYSVILLE TO 44 MILES
WEST OF RISING FAWN...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH ARE LIKELY AS THESE STORMS MOVE ACROSS WALKER...
CATOOSA AND DADE COUNTIES THROUGH 930 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE COLE CITY...FORT OGLETHORPE...
LAKEVIEW...CHICKAMAUGA...COOPER HEIGHTS...CHATTANOOGA VALLEY...
FAIRVIEW...LOOKOUT MOUNTAIN...HOOKER...MORGANVILLE...STEPHENSVILLE...
WILDWOOD...RISING FAWN...CLOUDLAND CANYON STATE PARK AND NEW ENGLAND.

THESE WIND GUSTS MAY PRODUCE MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOW
LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS AROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 3498 8561 3499 8498 3491 8502 3488 8501
      3486 8506 3482 8507 3482 8513 3473 8517
      3472 8505 3459 8506 3459 8552 3467 8554
      3468 8556
TIME...MOT...LOC 0051Z 253DEG 16KT 3537 8515 3504 8557
          3455 8624

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
901 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

GAZ003-004-160130-
901 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NICKEL SIZED HAIL AND 50 MPH
WINDS IN WHITFIELD AND CATOOSA COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM EDT...

AT 856 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR WOOD STATION...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE NICKEL SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
WHITFIELD AND CATOOSA COUNTIES THROUGH 930 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN
THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE WOOD STATION...BLUE SPRING...
BEAUMONT...RINGGOLD...ROCKY FACE...TUNNEL HILL...SALEM...DAWNVILLE...
VARNELL AND COHUTTA. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3482 8485 3471 8513 3472 8517 3473 8517
      3477 8514 3478 8520 3485 8520 3485 8526
      3487 8526 3500 8502 3499 8496
TIME...MOT...LOC 0101Z 242DEG 12KT 3482 8514