Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
216 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

...EARLY SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS FROM SE SURFACE
HIGH HAS CONTINUED TO SHIFT SOUTH...NOW SITUATED FROM OFFSHORE THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH SOUTH GEORGIA AND THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA.
MOIST RETURN FLOW IN RESULTANT SOUTHWEST WIND IS ALLOWING FOR
DEWPOINTS TO SURGE INTO THE LOWER 60S OVER NORTHWEST GEORGIA.
COMBINED WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S ALREADY AND WE ARE SEEING
IMPRESSIVE CAP VALUES OVER 2500 J/KG...VERY UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. AS SUCH...RADAR VERY MUCH RESEMBLES A SUMMER TYPE REGIME
WITH ACTIVITY INITIATING OVER THE NE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING WITH A
SLOW DRIFT SOUTHWARD.

EXPECT AREAS TO THE WEST TO FILL IN AS WELL BASED ON ADEQUATE
INSTABILITY WITH AREA SHIFTING SOUTH TO AFFECT MUCH OF NORTH
GEORGIA THROUGH THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE CERTAINLY NOT
SUMMER YET WITH FREEZING LEVEL JUST ABOVE 10K...SO WILL NOT TAKE
MUCH TO GET HAIL OUT OF THESE STORMS. GIVEN EXPECTED UPDRAFTS THIS
EVENING...HAVE ADDED MENTION OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS TO HAZARDS
AND GRAPHICAST. IN ADDITION...DCAPE ANALYSIS SHOWS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG DOWNDRAFTS IN THE MORE SIGNIFICANT CELLS THIS EVENING.

ALTHOUGH A MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE WANE
OVERNIGHT...NAM12 DOES TRY TO GEN UP ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY FROM 06Z
THROUGH 12Z AND WILL KEEP IN LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR THIS PERIOD.
GOING INTO FRIDAY...WILL CERTAINLY START OFF WITH MORE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE AREA WHICH MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY THROUGH MORNING...BUT
SHOULD SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY BETWEEN 500MB-
700MB THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TRAJECTORY OF THIS
ACTIVITY STILL FAVORS NORTH GEORGIA AND WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS IN
THIS REGION. THIS IS STILL SHY OF THE NAM12 WILL REMAINS BULLISH
WITH POPS...INDICATING NEAR CATEGORICAL. SHOULD SEE SIMILAR
THREATS TO TODAY...BUT MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE
CAN SUSTAIN WITH THE CLOUD COVER.

SURFACE TROUGH SETTLES INTO THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY AND THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED HIGH END CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY...COULD CERTAINLY SEE
THE NEED FOR THESE POPS TO BE RAISED TO LIKELY WITH SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS SHOULD TRENDS CONTINUE. THIS WOULD BE ESPECIALLY TRUE
FOR AREAS OF EXTREME NORTH AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING  STRENGTHENS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. IMPULSES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH GOOD
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS TO BRING
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. BY MONDAY IMPULSES
SLIDE FURTHER TO THE EAST...ALTHOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS IN
THE ONE TO ONE AND ONE-QUARTER INCH RANGE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIODS. WHILE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT...THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOONS...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF
FORECAST AREA AS EASTERLY FLOW BRINGS IN ADDITIONAL ATLANTIC
MOISTURE. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TEN TO FIFTEEN DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL REMAIN BELOW RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES.

DEESE

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 03-15

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      84 1921     43 1960     62 1990     19 1993
                                        1989
   KATL      81 1973     39 1901     64 1989     20 1993
                1946
   KCSG      83 1989     44 1960     66 1973     21 1993
   KMCN      86 1977     42 1960     65 1990     20 1993
                                        1973

RECORDS FOR 03-16

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      82 1945     37 1960     62 2002     19 1890
   KATL      84 1945     34 1900     64 2002     18 1890
   KCSG      85 2002     51 1969     65 2002     27 1988
                                                    1949
   KMCN      87 1955     42 1900     65 1942     26 1916

RECORDS FOR 03-17

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      85 1945     39 2005     62 1945     23 1924
   KATL      86 1945     38 1892     65 2002     23 1895
   KCSG      88 2002     45 2005     67 2002     30 1981
                                                    1954
   KMCN      88 1945     44 2005     65 1908     27 1988

RECORDS FOR 03-18

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      87 1921     45 1998     63 1908     23 1967
                                                    1941
                                                    1902
   KATL      84 1982     30 1892     67 1908     20 1902
   KCSG      89 1982     49 1988     64 1982     29 1967
   KMCN      88 1908     43 1902     67 1908     28 2007
                                                    1941

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER CONVECTION
HAS STARTED OVER N GA AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO THE IMPACTS ON THE
TAF LOCATIONS. SURFACE WINDS VARIABLE AROUND 5 KTS BECOMING CALM
OR LIGHT OVERNIGHT. BDL

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS AND WINDS INTO TONIGHT.
LOW CONFIDENCE FOR IMPACTS OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          57  82  57  82 /  20  40  30  30
ATLANTA         61  81  61  81 /  20  40  20  30
BLAIRSVILLE     53  77  53  78 /  30  40  40  30
CARTERSVILLE    53  80  52  83 /  30  40  30  30
COLUMBUS        58  83  59  83 /  10  30  20  30
GAINESVILLE     58  80  58  81 /  20  40  40  30
MACON           56  83  56  82 /  10  30  20  30
ROME            54  80  54  82 /  30  40  30  20
PEACHTREE CITY  53  80  53  83 /  20  30  20  30
VIDALIA         60  83  60  83 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1155 AM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-161015-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1155 AM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED SEVERE POSSIBLE OVER PRIMARILY
NORTH GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AND WILL
COMBINE WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO KEEP A WARM...MOIST
AIRMASS OVER GEORGIA.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORM WILL BE STRONG WIND
GUSTS...LARGE HAIL AND CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING IN THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY. THE BEST TIME FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM 4 PM TO 10
PM...GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM LA GRANGE...TO
GRIFFIN...TO GREENSBORO.

.DISCUSSION...
A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. THIS AFTERNOON...CAPES
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 1000 ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS FAR NORTH GEORGIA.
THIS PROXIMITY OF THIS IMPULSE WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED SEVERE ACTIVITY. STRONG WINDS
AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
627 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

GAZ030-031-152300-
627 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NICKEL SIZED HAIL AND 45 MPH
WINDS IN POLK AND PAULDING COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

AT 625 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR VAN WERT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE NICKEL SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
POLK AND PAULDING COUNTIES THROUGH 700 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE
PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE ANTIOCH...YORKVILLE...BRASWELL...FISH
CREEK...VAN WERT...ROCKMART AND ARAGON. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO...WEATHER.GOV OR OTHER MEDIA
OUTLETS FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE WARNINGS ON THESE STORMS.

&&

LAT...LON 3410 8511 3410 8505 3400 8487 3382 8504
      3390 8504 3390 8522 3391 8523
TIME...MOT...LOC 2227Z 213DEG 4KT 3393 8508

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
648 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

GAZ020-152315-
648 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DIME SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN BARTOW COUNTY UNTIL 715 PM EDT...

AT 644 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PINE LOG...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DIME SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
BARTOW COUNTY THROUGH 715 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS
STORM INCLUDE EMERSON...GEORGE WASHINGTON CARVER STATE PARK...RED TOP
MOUNTAIN STATE PARK...CARTERSVILLE...KINGSTON...CASSVILLE...WHITE...
PINE LOG...FOLSOM...ADAIRSVILLE AND FUNKHOUSER. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3422 8503 3432 8503 3435 8501 3439 8500
      3440 8474 3442 8473 3441 8465 3436 8466
      3435 8464 3435 8466 3408 8466 3409 8504
      3421 8505
TIME...MOT...LOC 2248Z 241DEG 7KT 3434 8471

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
712 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     HAIL             3 W ARAGON              34.04N 85.11W
03/15/2012  E1.00 INCH       POLK               GA   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTED QUARTER SIZED HAIL WHILE DRIVING ON HWY
            278 ABOUT 3 MILES WEST OF ROCKMART AROUND 655 PM EDT.

&&

RGARCIA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
732 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

GAZ012-160000-
732 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NICKEL SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH
WINDS IN GORDON COUNTY UNTIL 800 PM EDT...

AT 730 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SONORAVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE NICKEL SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
GORDON COUNTY THROUGH 800 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS
STORM INCLUDE SONORAVILLE...FAIRMOUNT...RANGER...OAKMAN...REDBUD AND
AUDUBON. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3454 8465 3446 8465 3441 8470 3442 8473
      3440 8474 3440 8495 3439 8496 3440 8498
      3439 8498 3439 8499 3461 8484 3461 8477
TIME...MOT...LOC 2332Z 214DEG 10KT 3442 8484

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