Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
216 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

...EARLY SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS FROM SE SURFACE
HIGH HAS CONTINUED TO SHIFT SOUTH...NOW SITUATED FROM OFFSHORE THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH SOUTH GEORGIA AND THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA.
MOIST RETURN FLOW IN RESULTANT SOUTHWEST WIND IS ALLOWING FOR
DEWPOINTS TO SURGE INTO THE LOWER 60S OVER NORTHWEST GEORGIA.
COMBINED WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S ALREADY AND WE ARE SEEING
IMPRESSIVE CAP VALUES OVER 2500 J/KG...VERY UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. AS SUCH...RADAR VERY MUCH RESEMBLES A SUMMER TYPE REGIME
WITH ACTIVITY INITIATING OVER THE NE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING WITH A
SLOW DRIFT SOUTHWARD.

EXPECT AREAS TO THE WEST TO FILL IN AS WELL BASED ON ADEQUATE
INSTABILITY WITH AREA SHIFTING SOUTH TO AFFECT MUCH OF NORTH
GEORGIA THROUGH THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE CERTAINLY NOT
SUMMER YET WITH FREEZING LEVEL JUST ABOVE 10K...SO WILL NOT TAKE
MUCH TO GET HAIL OUT OF THESE STORMS. GIVEN EXPECTED UPDRAFTS THIS
EVENING...HAVE ADDED MENTION OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS TO HAZARDS
AND GRAPHICAST. IN ADDITION...DCAPE ANALYSIS SHOWS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG DOWNDRAFTS IN THE MORE SIGNIFICANT CELLS THIS EVENING.

ALTHOUGH A MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE WANE
OVERNIGHT...NAM12 DOES TRY TO GEN UP ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY FROM 06Z
THROUGH 12Z AND WILL KEEP IN LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR THIS PERIOD.
GOING INTO FRIDAY...WILL CERTAINLY START OFF WITH MORE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE AREA WHICH MAY LIMIT INSTABILITY THROUGH MORNING...BUT
SHOULD SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY BETWEEN 500MB-
700MB THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TRAJECTORY OF THIS
ACTIVITY STILL FAVORS NORTH GEORGIA AND WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS IN
THIS REGION. THIS IS STILL SHY OF THE NAM12 WILL REMAINS BULLISH
WITH POPS...INDICATING NEAR CATEGORICAL. SHOULD SEE SIMILAR
THREATS TO TODAY...BUT MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE
CAN SUSTAIN WITH THE CLOUD COVER.

SURFACE TROUGH SETTLES INTO THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY AND THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED HIGH END CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY...COULD CERTAINLY SEE
THE NEED FOR THESE POPS TO BE RAISED TO LIKELY WITH SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS SHOULD TRENDS CONTINUE. THIS WOULD BE ESPECIALLY TRUE
FOR AREAS OF EXTREME NORTH AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING  STRENGTHENS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. IMPULSES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH GOOD
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS TO BRING
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. BY MONDAY IMPULSES
SLIDE FURTHER TO THE EAST...ALTHOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS IN
THE ONE TO ONE AND ONE-QUARTER INCH RANGE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIODS. WHILE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT...THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOONS...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF
FORECAST AREA AS EASTERLY FLOW BRINGS IN ADDITIONAL ATLANTIC
MOISTURE. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TEN TO FIFTEEN DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL REMAIN BELOW RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES.

DEESE

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 03-15

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      84 1921     43 1960     62 1990     19 1993
                                        1989
   KATL      81 1973     39 1901     64 1989     20 1993
                1946
   KCSG      83 1989     44 1960     66 1973     21 1993
   KMCN      86 1977     42 1960     65 1990     20 1993
                                        1973

RECORDS FOR 03-16

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      82 1945     37 1960     62 2002     19 1890
   KATL      84 1945     34 1900     64 2002     18 1890
   KCSG      85 2002     51 1969     65 2002     27 1988
                                                    1949
   KMCN      87 1955     42 1900     65 1942     26 1916

RECORDS FOR 03-17

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      85 1945     39 2005     62 1945     23 1924
   KATL      86 1945     38 1892     65 2002     23 1895
   KCSG      88 2002     45 2005     67 2002     30 1981
                                                    1954
   KMCN      88 1945     44 2005     65 1908     27 1988

RECORDS FOR 03-18

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      87 1921     45 1998     63 1908     23 1967
                                                    1941
                                                    1902
   KATL      84 1982     30 1892     67 1908     20 1902
   KCSG      89 1982     49 1988     64 1982     29 1967
   KMCN      88 1908     43 1902     67 1908     28 2007
                                                    1941

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER CONVECTION
HAS STARTED OVER N GA AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO THE IMPACTS ON THE
TAF LOCATIONS. SURFACE WINDS VARIABLE AROUND 5 KTS BECOMING CALM
OR LIGHT OVERNIGHT. BDL

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS AND WINDS INTO TONIGHT.
LOW CONFIDENCE FOR IMPACTS OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          57  82  57  82 /  20  40  30  30
ATLANTA         61  81  61  81 /  20  40  20  30
BLAIRSVILLE     53  77  53  78 /  30  40  40  30
CARTERSVILLE    53  80  52  83 /  30  40  30  30
COLUMBUS        58  83  59  83 /  10  30  20  30
GAINESVILLE     58  80  58  81 /  20  40  40  30
MACON           56  83  56  82 /  10  30  20  30
ROME            54  80  54  82 /  30  40  30  20
PEACHTREE CITY  53  80  53  83 /  20  30  20  30
VIDALIA         60  83  60  83 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1155 AM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-161015-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1155 AM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED SEVERE POSSIBLE OVER PRIMARILY
NORTH GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AND WILL
COMBINE WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO KEEP A WARM...MOIST
AIRMASS OVER GEORGIA.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORM WILL BE STRONG WIND
GUSTS...LARGE HAIL AND CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING IN THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY. THE BEST TIME FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM 4 PM TO 10
PM...GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM LA GRANGE...TO
GRIFFIN...TO GREENSBORO.

.DISCUSSION...
A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. THIS AFTERNOON...CAPES
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 1000 ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS FAR NORTH GEORGIA.
THIS PROXIMITY OF THIS IMPULSE WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED SEVERE ACTIVITY. STRONG WINDS
AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
512 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

GAZ021-152145-
512 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DIME SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN CHEROKEE COUNTY UNTIL 545 PM EDT...

AT 509 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR WALESKA...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DIME SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
CHEROKEE COUNTY THROUGH 545 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF
THIS STORM INCLUDE WALESKA...SUTALLEE...LAKE ARROWHEAD...SALACOA
VALLEY...KELLOGG CREEK...HOBGOOD PARK...LITTLE RIVER LANDING...
BRIDGEMILL...OAK GROVE...WOODSTOCK...LEBANON...HOLLY SPRINGS...FREE
HOME...BUFFINGTON AND CANTON. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3438 8458 3438 8445 3439 8443 3437 8440
      3438 8426 3419 8426 3417 8435 3413 8436
      3411 8442 3407 8442 3408 8466 3441 8465
      3441 8459
TIME...MOT...LOC 2113Z 278DEG 2KT 3430 8453

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
519 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

GAZ033-034-045-152145-
519 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DIME SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN DEKALB...GWINNETT AND NORTHERN FULTON COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM EDT...

AT 513 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR JOHNS CREEK...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS DEKALB...GWINNETT AND NORTHERN FULTON COUNTIES THROUGH 545 PM
EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE
DUNWOODY...JOHNS CREEK...MILTON...SANDY
SPRINGS...ROSWELL...ALPHARETTA...BROOKHAVEN...CHAMBLEE...DORAVILLE...
BERKELEY LAKE...BERKELEY LAKE...NORCROSS...DULUTH AND PLEASANT HILL.
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3410 8425 3410 8422 3406 8415 3405 8410
      3407 8412 3409 8411 3398 8396 3379 8430
      3392 8443 3398 8437 3401 8440 3407 8442
      3416 8426
TIME...MOT...LOC 2118Z 310DEG 9KT 3401 8421

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
536 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0532 PM     HAIL             WINSTON                 33.73N 84.83W
03/15/2012  E0.88 INCH       DOUGLAS            GA   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTED DIME TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL OCCURED AT A
            LOCATION OFF POST ROAD IN THE CITY OF WINSTON.

&&

BELANGER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
537 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     HAIL             1 E BURNT HICKORY RIDGE 34.03N 84.84W
03/15/2012  E0.88 INCH       PAULDING           GA   PUBLIC

            STAFF AT ROSEHALL EVENT CENTER...NEAR BURNT HICKORY
            RIDGE...REPORTED DIME TO NICKEL SIZED HAIL STARTING WITH
            SMALLER HAIL AT ABOUT 1710 AND GROWING TO AROUND NICKEL
            SIZE AROUND 1725.

&&

RGARCIA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
546 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

GAZ022-033-034-152215-
546 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DIME SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN FORSYTH...GWINNETT AND NORTHERN FULTON COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM
EDT...

AT 541 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ALPHARETTA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DIME SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
FORSYTH...GWINNETT AND NORTHERN FULTON COUNTIES THROUGH 615 PM EDT.
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE MOUNTAIN
PARK...MECHANICSVILLE...ROSWELL...ALPHARETTA...SUWANEE...DULUTH...BER
KELEY LAKE...BIRMINGHAM...JOHNS CREEK...MILTON...BROOKWOOD AND DREW.
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3407 8402 3392 8426 3396 8428 3397 8433
      3403 8441 3406 8442 3410 8442 3413 8436
      3417 8436 3419 8433 3419 8426 3425 8426
TIME...MOT...LOC 2145Z 238DEG 4KT 3408 8432

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
549 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

GAZ020-030>032-041-043-044-152215-
549 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DIME SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN POLK...PAULDING...BARTOW...COBB...DOUGLAS...HARALSON AND SOUTHERN
FULTON COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM EDT...

AT 546 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM BURNT HICKORY RIDGE TO HANNAH...MOVING EAST
AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DIME SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS
POLK...PAULDING...BARTOW...COBB...DOUGLAS...HARALSON AND SOUTHERN
FULTON COUNTIES THROUGH 615 PM EDT. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF
THIS STORM INCLUDE UNION...WINSTON...HANNAH...FAIRPLAY...LAKE
VAL-DO-MAR...DALLAS...BRASWELL...NEW GEORGIA...YORKVILLE...BURNT
HICKORY RIDGE...DRAKETOWN...VAN WERT...ROCKMART...ARAGON AND
TAYLORSVILLE. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3410 8512 3410 8505 3414 8504 3415 8466
      3353 8458 3351 8479 3352 8482 3355 8483
      3358 8482 3358 8491 3379 8491 3381 8504
      3372 8505 3369 8511 3370 8516
TIME...MOT...LOC 2149Z 270DEG 3KT 3406 8482 3356 8481