Special Weather Statement, NWS Eureka, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
1001 AM PDT SUN AUG 5 2012

.UPDATE...ISOLD TSTMS MOVG ACROSS DEL NORTE COUNTY THIS MORNING AS
UPPER LOW DRIFTS N OFF THE COAST. ANOTHER WEAKER SHORT WAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN FOCUS EXPECTED TO BE
ALONG THE SISKIYOU COUNTY BORDER WHERE ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS ALONG
WITH VERY DRY FUELS MAINTAIN THE ELEVATED RISK OF RAPID FIRE
SPREAD. THEREFORE...ISSUED A QUICK UPDATE TO EXTEND RED FLAG
WARNINGS FOR FWX ZONES 203 AND 204 IN ERN DEL NORTE AND NE
HUMBOLDT COUNTY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
&&

.SYNOPSIS...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING THE CHANCE FOR
SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE INTERIOR. INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A RETURN TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES MID TO LATE WEEK.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 432 AM PDT SUN AUG 5 2012...MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS MORNING IS THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST AND SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE.
SO FAR ONLY A FEW STRIKES HAVE BEEN REPORTED OVER OUR AREA. A WAVE
IN THE FLOW THAT PRODUCED SOME LIGHTNING OVER THE SIERRAS LAST
NIGHT IS CURRENTLY OVER REDDING AND THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
CENTRAL VALLEY. THIS HAS PRODUCED A STRIKE JUST NORTH OF RED
BLUFF. EXPECT AS THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST AND
BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE TERRAIN A FEW STRONGER SHOWERS WILL
POP UP. ANOTHER WAVE CURRENTLY OVER MONTERREY BAY LOOKS TO BE THE
LAST SHOT AS IT MOVES UP THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE MAY BE
LIMITED...HOWEVER WITH DAYTIME HEATING THERE APPEARS TO BE A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE MAINLY OVER TRINITY AND
INTERIOR HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE COUNTIES. AT THIS POINT EXACT
COVERAGE IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT SO DIDNT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO RED
FLAG WARNINGS IN PLACE. EXPECT SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY TODAY
ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS WITH LINGERING CONVECTIVE CLOUDS AROUND.
ALONG THE COAST IT IS DIFFICULT TO SEE THE STRATUS ON SATELLITE
DUE TO THE HIGHER CLOUDS BUT SURFACE OBS SHOW WIDESPREAD STRATUS
IN PLACE. EXPECT THE COAST WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH LITTLE
TO MOVE THE STRATUS OUT. INLAND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 5
TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AS THE TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD.
COOLER MARINE AIR IS EXPECTED IN UKIAH ONCE AGAIN TODAY AS WELL
KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S.

SUNDAY EVENING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY END WITH SUNDOWN
AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND WE LOSE THE DIURNAL HEATING. COASTAL
STRATUS LOOKS TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA. MONDAY THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA BRINGING
CONTINUED COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE INTERIOR. FLOW LOOKS TO BE
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH VERY STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
MKK

LONG TERM...TUESDAY AFTERNOON A WEAK SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO PASS TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. FLOW LOOKS TO BE VERY
DRY AND TYPICAL MID LEVEL CAP LOOKS TO KEEP CONVECTION AWAY. THE
MAIN IMPACT LOOKS TO BE ENHANCED DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY
MORNING. WEDNESDAY MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON HIGH PRESSURE
RETROGRADING BACK INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL WARM UP TEMPERATURES
INLAND ONCE AGAIN. A RETURN TO TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO
LOW 100S IS LIKELY. THE GFS IS SHOWING SOME WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW SO
SOME AFTERNOON CLEARING AT THE COAST LOOKS POSSIBLE. MODELS ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING IN PLACE THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. MKK
&&

.AVIATION...COASTAL AIRFIELDS CURRENTLY UNDER A BLANKET OF IFR
CIGS...EVEN THOUGH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE OBSCURING THE EXTENT OF
THE LOW CLOUDS. VSBYS HAVE REMAINED VFR SO FAR...BUT EXPECT A FEW
HRS AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING OF MVFR CONDS. WITH A CONTINUED S/SW
TRAJECTORY TODAY...WE EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO HANG AROUND MUCH OF THE
DAY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT REAL HIGH AS A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM S TO
N LATER TODAY...AND WITH ITS PASSAGE CLOUDS COULD EITHER CLEAR OUT
FOR A FEW HRS OR RE-ENFORCE IFR CONDS. INLAND AIRSTRIPS SHOULD
REMAIN MAINLY VFR...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION BEING AROUND KUKI
WHERE IFR CIGS WILL BE HANGING AROUND THE AIRPORT THROUGH
MID-MORNING. ISO T WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE INTERIOR
THROUGH THE EVENING HRS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. JCA
&&

.MARINE...WEAK LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST OF THE WATERS WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 36 HRS OR SO. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND LOW SEAS WILL PREVAIL UNDER THIS REGIME. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK OVER THE EPAC ON TUE WITH A RETURN TO NORTHERLIES. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL RETURN TO TYPICAL SUMMERTIME ELEVATED LEVELS BY WED AND
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. JCA
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES REPORTED SO FAR ACROSS
THE AREA AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OFFSHORE. MAIN QUESTION IS HOW MUCH LIGHTNING WE WILL GET TODAY.
MODELS SHOW A MODERATE LAYER OF MID LEVEL STABILITY AS THE BEST
DYNAMICS GO BY...SO IT WILL BE A BATTLE TO SEE WHETHER IT CAN BREAK
THROUGH THE CAP. EXACT COVERAGE IS DIFFICULT TO ESTIMATE...BUT WITH
A FEW ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS DIDN'T WANT TO CANCEL THE RED FLAG. THE
BEST DYNAMICS LOOK TO BE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IN TRINITY COUNTY
WARNING STILL GOES UNTIL 00Z. WITH DAYTIME HEATING EXPECT THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME STRIKES. AGAIN THE COVERAGE MAY BE
MARGINAL FOR THE REDFLAG BUT EXPECT THERE WILL STILL BE SOME STRIKES
SO HESITANT TO CANCEL IT AT THIS POINT. MKK
&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 203...204 AND 283.
&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
1005 AM PDT SUN AUG 5 2012

CAZ001-061715-
REDWOOD COAST-
1005 AM PDT SUN AUG 5 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

CAZ003-004-061715-
NORTH COAST INTERIOR-UPPER TRINITY RIVER-
1005 AM PDT SUN AUG 5 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A RED FLAG WARNING IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

CAZ002-076-061715-
MENDOCINO COAST-MENDOCINO INTERIOR-
1005 AM PDT SUN AUG 5 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
322 PM PDT SUN AUG 5 2012

CAZ004-052300-
HUMBOLDT CA-TRINITY CA-
322 PM PDT SUN AUG 5 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN EUREKA HAS ISSUED A

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  WEST CENTRAL TRINITY COUNTY IN NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA
  EAST CENTRAL HUMBOLDT COUNTY IN NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA

UNTIL 400 PM PDT

AT 320 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BURNT RANCH...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 4098 12367 4107 12337 4076 12326 4068 12347
      4092 12367 4097 12368
TIME...MOT...LOC 2221Z 153DEG 10KT 4080 12342

RPA