Special Weather Statement, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1232 PM CDT Fri Sep 7 2012

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...

Early this morning, the main area of thunderstorm activity was
located across central into eastern Iowa coincident with the
strongest isentropic ascent. This thunderstorm cluster was generally
moving off to the east and southeast and looks to remain north of
the forecast office this morning. A second area of precipitation was
located across south-central Kansas where the LLJ seems to have more
of an influence. This has kept the forecast area between the areas of
strongest ascent thus far and based on short range guidance looks to
continue through at least the mid morning.

By midday, the upper level short wave trough will have pushed into
the central plains with the associated cold front bisecting the
forecast area. Isentropic downglide will have weakened by this time
and overcome by stronger large scale ascent. This should allow
widespread shower and isolated thunderstorm development across the
area, which will tend to be primarily post-frontal in nature. Given
the timing of the frontal passage and arrival of upper support, it
appears the southeastern 2/3rd of the forecast area will see the
highest potential for the initial round of precipitation.
Thereafter, a secondary area of lift coincident with the upper trough axis
will swing south by this afternoon resulting in the potential for
additional shower development across the entire forecast area.

Precipitation should quickly exit the area by this evening with a
drier and cooler air mass filtering south behind it. A cool Canadian
sfc ridge will settles across the region through the weekend beneath
predominant upper level northwest flow. This should result in
pleasant conditions as afternoon highs top out in the 70s to near 80
degrees.

Deroche

Medium Range (Monday through Thursday)...

Much of the medium range forecast will be quiet and pleasant as
large-scale ridging over the Rockies slowly builds and transitions
eastward. Temperatures will gradually rise as the ridge shifts over
the High Plains late Monday through Tuesday, then will fall back to
near or just below normal values as the ridge breaks down Tuesday
night through Wednesday. Most model solutions bring a surface cold
front through the forecast area sometime Wednesday afternoon through
Thursday morning, with at least a chance of precipitation along and
behind the surface boundary, mainly Wednesday night through the
daylight hours on Thursday. Frontal passage will drive temperatures
to below normal values by the end of the week, while mainly zonal to
northwest flow settles in across the Plains.

Laflin

&&

.AVIATION...

For the 18Z TAFs: Cluster of showers and thunderstorms continues to
move across central Kansas early this afternoon and is timed to reach
the terminals by 19z. Relatively short duration of rain is expected,
with timing on the back edge of precipitation between 22-23Z.
Visibilities and ceilings will generally remain VFR, with periodic dips into
MVFR category in stronger downpours. Once rain moves out of the area
late this afternoon, VFR conditions expected into Saturday. Winds
however will remain fairly brisk through the overnight hours with a
northerly direction prevailing between 8-14 knots.

Dux

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

WFO EAX

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
152 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2012

KSZ057-060-071945-
LINN KS-MIAMI KS-
152 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LINN AND MIAMI COUNTIES IN EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS UNTIL 245 PM CDT...

AT 147 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6
MILES NORTHWEST OF OSAGE CITY TO 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF OLIVET TO 9
MILES WEST OF BURLINGTON...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  OSAWATOMIE...PAOLA...MOUND CITY...LA CYGNE...PLEASANTON...
  LOUISBURG...PARKER...BLUE MOUND...FONTANA...PRESCOTT...BEAGLE...
  HILLSDALE...WAGSTAFF...NEW LANCASTER AND CHILES.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 3811 9508 3826 9508 3826 9507 3868 9507
      3869 9466 3829 9465 3805 9467 3803 9508
TIME...MOT...LOC 1852Z 277DEG 44KT 3867 9585 3841 9577
          3818 9584

CUTTER