Severe Thunderstorm Warning 106, NWS Kansas City, MO

123 
WWUS53 KEAX 072003
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
303 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2012

KSC107-MOC013-072015-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0106.000000T0000Z-120907T2015Z/
LINN KS-BATES MO-
303 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LINN COUNTY IN
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...AND SOUTHWESTERN BATES COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL
MISSOURI UNTIL 315 PM CDT...

AT 258 PM CDT...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTH OF PLEASANTON TO PRESCOTT TO 7
MILES SOUTH OF FULTON...AND MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS.

IMPACT...MINOR DAMAGE TO VEHICLES...ROOFS AND WINDOWS. MINOR TREE
         DAMAGE...WITH LIMBS UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER BROKEN.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...FOSTER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.
THEY WILL SEND YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
PLEASANT HILL.

&&

LAT...LON 3805 9494 3838 9496 3838 9476 3829 9440
      3805 9436 3806 9461 3803 9462
TIME...MOT...LOC 2003Z 284DEG 50KT 3823 9459 3804 9456
          3789 9467

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60 MPH

$$

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248 
WWUS53 KEAX 072014
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
314 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2012

KSC107-MOC013-072021-
/O.EXP.KEAX.SV.W.0106.000000T0000Z-120907T2015Z/
LINN KS-BATES MO-
314 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR LINN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS...AND SOUTHWESTERN BATES COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI WILL
EXPIRE AT 315 PM CDT...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR
PROPERTY.  HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS.

IN ADDITION...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP...AND A SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING. 

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN PLEASANT HILL.

LAT...LON 3805 9494 3838 9496 3838 9476 3829 9440
      3805 9436 3806 9461 3803 9462
TIME...MOT...LOC 2011Z 284DEG 50KT 3820 9445 3801 9442
          3786 9453

$$

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1232 PM CDT Fri Sep 7 2012

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...

Early this morning, the main area of thunderstorm activity was
located across central into eastern Iowa coincident with the
strongest isentropic ascent. This thunderstorm cluster was generally
moving off to the east and southeast and looks to remain north of
the forecast office this morning. A second area of precipitation was
located across south-central Kansas where the LLJ seems to have more
of an influence. This has kept the forecast area between the areas of
strongest ascent thus far and based on short range guidance looks to
continue through at least the mid morning.

By midday, the upper level short wave trough will have pushed into
the central plains with the associated cold front bisecting the
forecast area. Isentropic downglide will have weakened by this time
and overcome by stronger large scale ascent. This should allow
widespread shower and isolated thunderstorm development across the
area, which will tend to be primarily post-frontal in nature. Given
the timing of the frontal passage and arrival of upper support, it
appears the southeastern 2/3rd of the forecast area will see the
highest potential for the initial round of precipitation.
Thereafter, a secondary area of lift coincident with the upper trough axis
will swing south by this afternoon resulting in the potential for
additional shower development across the entire forecast area.

Precipitation should quickly exit the area by this evening with a
drier and cooler air mass filtering south behind it. A cool Canadian
sfc ridge will settles across the region through the weekend beneath
predominant upper level northwest flow. This should result in
pleasant conditions as afternoon highs top out in the 70s to near 80
degrees.

Deroche

Medium Range (Monday through Thursday)...

Much of the medium range forecast will be quiet and pleasant as
large-scale ridging over the Rockies slowly builds and transitions
eastward. Temperatures will gradually rise as the ridge shifts over
the High Plains late Monday through Tuesday, then will fall back to
near or just below normal values as the ridge breaks down Tuesday
night through Wednesday. Most model solutions bring a surface cold
front through the forecast area sometime Wednesday afternoon through
Thursday morning, with at least a chance of precipitation along and
behind the surface boundary, mainly Wednesday night through the
daylight hours on Thursday. Frontal passage will drive temperatures
to below normal values by the end of the week, while mainly zonal to
northwest flow settles in across the Plains.

Laflin

&&

.AVIATION...

For the 18Z TAFs: Cluster of showers and thunderstorms continues to
move across central Kansas early this afternoon and is timed to reach
the terminals by 19z. Relatively short duration of rain is expected,
with timing on the back edge of precipitation between 22-23Z.
Visibilities and ceilings will generally remain VFR, with periodic dips into
MVFR category in stronger downpours. Once rain moves out of the area
late this afternoon, VFR conditions expected into Saturday. Winds
however will remain fairly brisk through the overnight hours with a
northerly direction prevailing between 8-14 knots.

Dux

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

WFO EAX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
155 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2012

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-081115-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
155 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI INTO EARLY EVENING.

A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD TOWARDS
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. SHOULD THESE STORMS
CONTINUE TO HOLD TOGETHER...A SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 THROUGH 7PM ESPECIALLY IN AREAS FROM
PAOLA TO LA CYGNE TO CLINTON...MARSHALL...SEDALIA AND BOONVILLE WHERE
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 90S. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY
STRONG STORM WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS.

RAIN WILL COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST BY 7PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED IN AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50.

DUX

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
152 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2012

KSZ057-060-071945-
LINN KS-MIAMI KS-
152 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LINN AND MIAMI COUNTIES IN EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS UNTIL 245 PM CDT...

AT 147 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6
MILES NORTHWEST OF OSAGE CITY TO 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF OLIVET TO 9
MILES WEST OF BURLINGTON...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  OSAWATOMIE...PAOLA...MOUND CITY...LA CYGNE...PLEASANTON...
  LOUISBURG...PARKER...BLUE MOUND...FONTANA...PRESCOTT...BEAGLE...
  HILLSDALE...WAGSTAFF...NEW LANCASTER AND CHILES.

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 3811 9508 3826 9508 3826 9507 3868 9507
      3869 9466 3829 9465 3805 9467 3803 9508
TIME...MOT...LOC 1852Z 277DEG 44KT 3867 9585 3841 9577
          3818 9584

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