Special Weather Statement, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
441 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

.DISCUSSION...

Short Term (Tonight - Tuesday)...

All the significant weather will be confined to tonight with some
spill-over of residual showers into Monday morning. Morning/early
afternoon convection which formed along an dissipating outflow
boundary has either dissipated or moved into east central MO leaving
behind an airmass that is quickly recovering and destabilizing. The
synoptic cold front has become better defined and extends from just
east of DMX through around STJ to a low north of Enid, OK. Most
convective and short range models rapidly develop convection along
this boundary this afternoon/very early evening and track it through
the CWA. While the airmass is highly unstable as evidenced by
MUCAPEs in the 3000-4000 J/kg range, 0-6km bulk shear of less than
20kts will provide meager support for rotating updrafts. This is
more of an early summer airmass which is conducive to pulse like
storms initially. Primary severe threats will be potential for very
large hail, damaging downburst winds, very heavy rainfall and a
bunch of lightning. If the multicell clusters can merge into larger
systems then a cold pool could take over and result in short bowing
line segments producing straight-line wind damage. Any tornadic
threat will likely be short-loved and tied to colliding boundaries.

Scattered post-frontal convection is likely as the highly unstable
and very moist airmass advects over the shallow surface boundary
resulting in elevated convection. Some question as to how long into
Monday morning the isentropic ascent will support precipitation. 12Z
NAM suggests light rain/drizzle could last through mid morning north
of the MO River. However, all other models are faster.

Much cooler/drier air will filter into the CWA on Monday and for
most of next week with near seasonal temperatures. Models have been
very consistent with this message for several days and see no reason
to deviate.

MJ

Wednesday - Saturday:

Surface high pressure will prevail across the entire region into
Thursday when it moves east of the forecast area and shifts winds
back to the south. Through Thursday, this high pressure should
preclude any precipitation chances. This will also keep temperatures
in check with highs generally around seasonal normals, in the low to
mid 70s with lows in the middle to upper 40s Thursday morning and
low to mid 50s for Friday morning. With winds becoming southerly by
the end of week, temperatures will start to moderate and highs
Friday will return to the mid to upper 70s. By Friday night, an
upper wave will track across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest
sending another front southward into the area. This will bring our
next decent shot of precipitation to the forecast area starting
Friday night and continuing into at least Saturday. There is some
discrepancy regarding coverage by the end of the weekend so have
limited POPs to the low chance range. The increased cloud cover,
precipitation chances and frontal passage should keep temperatures
close to normal again for Saturday.

CDB

&&

.AVIATION...

For the 18Z TAFs...earlier outflow boundary and ongoing scattered
convection ahead of the primary cold front has complicated the
forecast. This pre-frontal convection has moved out of all 3
terminals with the airmass temporarily stabilized. Still expect to
see a much larger area of showers and thunderstorms form northwest
of the terminals along the true synoptic cold front later this
afternoon and then advance southeast. Confidence on timing is below
average due to the earlier storms and a likely delay in the new
convection forming along the cold front. Will broadbrush with
prevailing thunder in the terminals until around midnight even
though I do not expect thunder to be ongoing for the entire time
from 21z-06z. Will transition out of thunder after midnight but
maintain showers till after sunrise.

MJ

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

WFO EAX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
150 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-071215-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
150 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN EARLIER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
HAVE TEMPORARILY STABILIZED THE AIRMASS OVER WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI.
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE REGION. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO FORM ALONG THE TRUE COLD FRONT OVER NORTHWEST MISSOURI DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND FORM A LINE THAT WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST AND AFFECT
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
THREATS. WHILE THE TORNADIC THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL IT CANNOT BE RULED
OUT ENTIRELY AS ANY COLLIDING BOUNDARIES COULD RESULT IN A BRIEF
TORNADO. ADDITIONALLY...VERY HEAVY RAINS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS AND COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING IN
THOSE AREA FROM KANSAS CITY TO NEAR CHILLICOTHE WHICH RECEIVED HEAVY
RAINFALL EARLIER TODAY.

WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH IF NOT END ENTIRELY BY LATE
EVENING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY STILL BE LINGERING ACROSS PARTS
OF WEST CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
EXITING SOUTHEAST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS LINGERING ACTIVITY IS LOW.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MJ

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