Severe Thunderstorm Warning 36, NWS Kansas City, MO

868 
WWUS53 KEAX 062138
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
438 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

MOC037-062200-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0036.000000T0000Z-120506T2200Z/
CASS MO-
438 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN
CASS COUNTY UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

AT 437 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BELTON...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HAZARD...PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...DAMAGE TO VEHICLES...ROOFS AND WINDOWS. MINOR TREE DAMAGE...
         WITH LIMBS UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER BROKEN.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BELTON AND RAYMORE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3872 9458 3877 9461 3885 9454 3884 9446
      3877 9431 3870 9453
TIME...MOT...LOC 2138Z 204DEG 12KT 3876 9454

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...60 MPH

$$

DEROCHE

015 
WWUS53 KEAX 062150
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
450 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

MOC037-062200-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0036.000000T0000Z-120506T2200Z/
CASS MO-
450 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN
CASS COUNTY UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

AT 450 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BELTON...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HAZARD...PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...DAMAGE TO VEHICLES...ROOFS AND WINDOWS. MINOR TREE DAMAGE...
         WITH LIMBS UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER BROKEN.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BELTON AND RAYMORE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3877 9461 3885 9454 3884 9446 3881 9439
      3874 9441 3871 9449
TIME...MOT...LOC 2151Z 204DEG 12KT 3880 9452

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...60 MPH

$$

DEROCHE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
108 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...

Short Term (Today-Tuesday)...

Main focus for the short term will be on the potential for strong to
severe thunderstorms to develop as a cold front moves through the
region.

Overnight, convection ignited across Nebraska and into southern
Minnesota in the vicinity of a cold front, with additional
thunderstorms developing ahead of the front along the advancing gust
front. Although this front has moved very little during the
overnight hours, it should become more progressive into the morning
hours. Models show this boundary moving into extreme northwest
Missouri by late morning and continuing to track southeastward
across the forecast area through the afternoon and early evening
hours. As a result, precipitation may move into extreme northern
Missouri by later this morning, becoming more widespread through the
afternoon. As seen overnight, convection may form not only along the
cold front but also along any outflow boundaries that may develop
ahead of the advancing front. This activity will be entering a very
unstable atmosphere over the region this afternoon as models
continue to show instability upwards of 4000-5000 J/kg of MUCAPE.
Although 0-6km shear looks to be quite weak -- 25-30 kts, the strong
instability over the region should be enough to help produce strong
to severe thunderstorms and possibly the development of supercells.
Thunderstorm activity is expected to ramp up during the afternoon
hours and persist through the evening as the front exits the region.
The primary severe threats with this activity will be large hail and
damaging winds. However, with the combination of the advancing cold
front and the potential for outflow boundaries to interact with this
front, cannot rule out the possibility that this boundary
interaction could result in a few isolated tornadoes. Additionally,
given the weak wind shear over the region, could also see areas of
localized flooding due to slow moving storms producing heavy
rainfall. This activity is expected to persist through the overnight
hours and still be present across central Missouri Monday morning
before exiting southeast of the forecast area by Monday afternoon.
High pressure will move into the Northern and Central Plains behind
this system, resulting in dry conditions for Tuesday and Tuesday
night.

As for temperatures, one more day of above normal conditions in the
80s is expected today as the southerly winds should not start
veering to the northwest until later in the afternoon across
northern Missouri. These northwesterly winds will stay in place
through mid week as the surface high remains focused just west of
the region. As a result, more seasonal conditions are expected
Monday and Tuesday with highs in the lower 70s.

ACH

Medium Range (Wednesday through Saturday)...

Later half of the forecast will arrive with pleasant conditions
prevailing across the Central Plains. A modest Canadian surface high
will be oozing across the Plains States with the help of a shortwave
ridge. This will allow for dry conditions to prevail with
temperatures kicking around a little below to a little above normal
for Wednesday and Thursday respectively. Questions on the forecast
quickly center of Friday and Saturday as a shortwave trough will be
sliding east along the Canadian border, with a weak cutoff
circulation kicking out of the Four Corners region across the
Southern Plains. Medium range models have all shifted in the same
direction over the last 24 hours worth of model runs adding some
confidence to the late week forecast.

Models seem to be better resolving the Canadian border trough and
weak Four Corners circulation with the latest runs as output
solutions look less prone to phasing these northern and southern
stream features. This has resulted in the focus for activity looking
like it will split around our section of Kansas and Missouri, as
best dynamics go with the Canadian border trough, and thermodynamics
with the weak circulation kicking out across the Southern Plains.
Convective potential along the front is looking to be limited, so
have clipped POPs a little in the last couple of days of the
forecast, but will continue to carry chance thunderstorm POPs
Friday night into Saturday.

Cutter

&&

.AVIATION...

For the 18Z TAFs...earlier outflow boundary and ongoing scattered
convection ahead of the primary cold front has complicated the
forecast. This pre-frontal convection has moved out of all 3
terminals with the airmass temporarily stabilized. Still expect to
see a much larger area of showers and thunderstorms form northwest
of the terminals along the true synoptic cold front later this
afternoon and then advance southeast. Confidence on timing is below
average due to the earlier storms and a likely delay in the new
convection forming along the cold front. Will broadbrush with
prevailing thunder in the terminals until around midnight even
though I do not expect thunder to be ongoing for the entire time
from 21z-06z. Will transition out of thunder after midnight but
maintain showers till after sunrise.

MJ

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

WFO EAX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
150 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-071215-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
150 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN EARLIER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
HAVE TEMPORARILY STABILIZED THE AIRMASS OVER WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI.
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE REGION. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO FORM ALONG THE TRUE COLD FRONT OVER NORTHWEST MISSOURI DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND FORM A LINE THAT WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST AND AFFECT
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
THREATS. WHILE THE TORNADIC THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL IT CANNOT BE RULED
OUT ENTIRELY AS ANY COLLIDING BOUNDARIES COULD RESULT IN A BRIEF
TORNADO. ADDITIONALLY...VERY HEAVY RAINS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS AND COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING IN
THOSE AREA FROM KANSAS CITY TO NEAR CHILLICOTHE WHICH RECEIVED HEAVY
RAINFALL EARLIER TODAY.

WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH IF NOT END ENTIRELY BY LATE
EVENING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY STILL BE LINGERING ACROSS PARTS
OF WEST CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
EXITING SOUTHEAST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS LINGERING ACTIVITY IS LOW.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
141 PM CDT SUN MAY 06 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0135 PM     HAIL             SALISBURY               39.42N 92.80W
05/06/2012  M0.88 INCH       CHARITON           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTING NICKEL TO DIME SIZE HAIL

&&

KBRONIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
238 PM CDT SUN MAY 06 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 SE MOBERLY            39.41N 92.42W
05/06/2012  E65 MPH          RANDOLPH           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            3 INCH LIMBS DOWN

&&

DDEROCHE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
346 PM CDT SUN MAY 06 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0259 PM     TSTM WND GST     MOBERLY                 39.42N 92.44W
05/06/2012  M58 MPH          RANDOLPH           MO   AWOS

            THE MOBERLY AWOS REPORTED A 58 MPH WIND GUST.

&&

CBOWMAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
406 PM CDT SUN MAY 06 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MOBERLY                 39.42N 92.44W
05/06/2012                   RANDOLPH           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS ESTIMATED UP TO 60 MPH, SNAPPED
            OFF A TWO AND A HALF FOOT DIAMETER TREE. THE TREE FELL
            AGAINST A POWER POLE AND BROUGHT IT AND A POWER LINE
            DOWN.

&&

GAMIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
417 PM CDT SUN MAY 06 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0413 PM     HAIL             2 S GOWER               39.58N 94.59W
05/06/2012  M0.88 INCH       CLINTON            MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

GAMIS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
425 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

KSZ105-062200-
JOHNSON KS-
425 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN JOHNSON COUNTY IN EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

AT 422 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR EUDORA...OR 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DE SOTO...
MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EXTREME WESTERN JOHNSON COUNTY.

THE LARGER HAIL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM MAY MOVE INTO FAR
NORTHWESTERN JOHNSON COUNTY SOON AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
MAY BE NEEDED. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS
AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS
LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3897 9501 3886 9501 3887 9506 3896 9506
TIME...MOT...LOC 2123Z 280DEG 6KT 3892 9507

DEROCHE