Alert archive / Iowa / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2012

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 26, NWS Quad Cities, IA

May 3, 2012Cedar County, Muscatine County, Scott County, Iowa

NWS Quad Cities, IA issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 3, 2012, 9:46 PM CDT for Cedar County, Muscatine County, Scott County, Iowa. It was in force for 43 min. 2 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: May 3, 2012, 9:46 PM CDT (02:46 UTC)
Expired: May 3, 2012, 10:29 PM CDT
In force: 43 min
Issued by: NWS Quad Cities, IA
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.0 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties Cedar County, IA, Muscatine County, IA, Scott County, IA

The radar

The Quad Cities radar (KDVN), 18 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:49 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
May 3, 10:00 PM CDT	TSTM WND DMG	Wilton, IA	TWO LARGE TREES DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.
May 3, 10:14 PM CDT	TSTM WND GST 70	Walcott, IA	60 TO 70 MPH WIND GUSTS. RETIRED NWS EMPLOYEE.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 2 storm reports to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 14 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
May 3, 7:09 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	6 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Davenport, (KDVN), launched 00:00Z, 2.8 hours before the alert went out and 24 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1056 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -39 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1420 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 34 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 42 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 100 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.1
Supercell composite: 1.7

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

650 
WUUS53 KDVN 040246
SVRDVN
IAC031-139-163-040345-
/O.NEW.KDVN.SV.W.0026.120504T0246Z-120504T0345Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
946 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN CEDAR COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA...
  NORTHEASTERN MUSCATINE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA...  
  SCOTT COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA...

* UNTIL 1045 PM CDT.

* AT 945 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AROUND 60
  MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY NEAR WILTON...OR NEAR
  DURANT...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
  BENNETT...WALCOTT...DONAHUE...ELDRIDGE AND LONG GROVE.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 80 IN IOWA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 264 AND 297.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 280 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 2.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. MOVE IMMEDIATELY INDOORS AND STAY AWAY
FROM WINDOWS.

PLEASE REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO YOUR LOCAL LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY FOR RELAY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT FRIDAY MORNING
FOR NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS. A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 100 AM CDT FRIDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

&&

LAT...LON 4175 9053 4156 9054 4157 9118 4175 9117
      4176 9075 4174 9075 4174 9073 4173 9071
      4176 9068
TIME...MOT...LOC 0246Z 264DEG 20KT 4166 9098
WIND...HAIL 60MPH <1.00IN

$$

MCCLURE

3 follow-up statements

685 
WWUS53 KDVN 040256
SVSDVN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
956 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2012

IAC031-139-163-040345-
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0026.000000T0000Z-120504T0345Z/
SCOTT IA-MUSCATINE IA-CEDAR IA-
956 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 PM CDT 
FOR SOUTHEASTERN CEDAR...NORTHEASTERN MUSCATINE AND SCOTT COUNTIES...

AT 953 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS
AROUND 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY NEAR SUNBURY...
OR NEAR DURANT...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
STOCKTON...PLAINVIEW...WALCOTT...DIXON...MAYSVILLE...DONAHUE...
DAVENPORT MUNICIPAL AIRPORT...ELDRIDGE...LONG GROVE...PARK VIEW AND
SCOTT COUNTY PARK.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 80 IN IOWA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 270 AND 296.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 280 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 2.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. MOVE IMMEDIATELY INDOORS AND STAY AWAY
FROM WINDOWS.

PLEASE REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO YOUR LOCAL LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY FOR RELAY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

THIS STORM IS ALSO PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING.

&&

LAT...LON 4175 9053 4156 9054 4157 9107 4175 9105
      4176 9076 4174 9075 4174 9073 4173 9071
      4176 9068
TIME...MOT...LOC 0256Z 267DEG 23KT 4166 9087
WIND...HAIL 60MPH <1.00IN

$$

MCCLURE

977 
WWUS53 KDVN 040305
SVSDVN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1005 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2012

IAC031-040315-
/O.CAN.KDVN.SV.W.0026.000000T0000Z-120504T0345Z/
CEDAR IA-
1005 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN CEDAR COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THAT HAD A HISTORY OF PRODUCING 70 MPH
WINDS HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE THE SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT FRIDAY MORNING
FOR NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS. A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 100 AM CDT FRIDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 4175 9053 4156 9054 4158 9090 4175 9090
      4176 9076 4174 9075 4174 9073 4173 9071
      4176 9068
TIME...MOT...LOC 0305Z 267DEG 23KT 4166 9079

$$

IAC139-163-040345-
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0026.000000T0000Z-120504T0345Z/
SCOTT IA-MUSCATINE IA-
1005 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN MUSCATINE AND NORTHWESTERN SCOTT COUNTIES...

AT 1002 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS
AROUND 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY NEAR
PLAINVIEW...OR 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF DURANT...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
WALCOTT...DIXON...MAYSVILLE...DONAHUE...DAVENPORT MUNICIPAL
AIRPORT...ELDRIDGE...LONG GROVE...PARK VIEW AND SCOTT COUNTY PARK.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 80 IN IOWA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 279 AND 296.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 280 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 2.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. MOVE IMMEDIATELY INDOORS AND STAY AWAY
FROM WINDOWS.

PLEASE REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO YOUR LOCAL LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY FOR RELAY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

THIS STORM IS ALSO PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT FRIDAY MORNING
FOR NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS. A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 100 AM CDT FRIDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

&&

LAT...LON 4175 9053 4156 9054 4158 9090 4175 9090
      4176 9076 4174 9075 4174 9073 4173 9071
      4176 9068
TIME...MOT...LOC 0305Z 267DEG 23KT 4166 9079
WIND...HAIL 60MPH <1.00IN

$$

MCCLURE

852 
WWUS53 KDVN 040329
SVSDVN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1029 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2012

IAC139-163-040338-
/O.CAN.KDVN.SV.W.0026.000000T0000Z-120504T0345Z/
SCOTT IA-MUSCATINE IA-
1029 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN MUSCATINE AND
NORTHWESTERN SCOTT COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM HAS WEAKENED. THEREFORE THE SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

HOWEVER...THIS STORM IS STILL LIKELY TO PRODUCE FREQUENT AND DANGEROUS 
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING... VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH PONDING OF WATER 
ON ROADWAYS... AND GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH. 

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT FRIDAY MORNING
FOR NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS. A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 100 AM CDT FRIDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 4175 9053 4156 9054 4158 9090 4175 9090
      4176 9076 4174 9075 4174 9073 4173 9071
      4176 9068
TIME...MOT...LOC 0328Z 267DEG 23KT 4167 9059

$$

MCCLURE

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Quad Cities, IA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 3, 6:29 PM CDT, 3 hours 17 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 3, 6:29 PM CDT, 3 hours 17 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
629 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2012

.AVIATION...
CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS GETTING OFF TO A RELATIVELY WEAK START
WITH A FEW STORMS GETTING GOING GENERALLY ALONG A LINE FROM
KIRKSVILLE MO...THROUGH MACOMB IL...NORTHEAST INTO THE CHICAGO
AREA. EXPECT THAT CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN AREAL
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...AND SEEM MOST LIKELY TO AFFECT KBRL IN
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AND CB INDICATIONS
FOR NOW...BUT WILL LIKELY NEED TO AMEND FOR MORE SPECIFIC
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT. KMLI IS ALSO AT RISK
FOR THUNDER THIS EVENING...BUT HAVE KEPT THINGS MORE LOW KEY FOR
NOW. REMAINDER OF TAF SITES MAY SEE SOME CONVECTION LATER THIS
EVENING AS THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY ONGOING OVER NORTHWEST IOWA
MOVES THIS DIRECTION BUT DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
PLACEMENT HAVE KEPT THINGS TO A GENERIC VCTS FOR NOW. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO SLIP SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS BY 09Z
TONIGHT...AND HAVE THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT VFR AND QUIET. NEW
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF A BOUNDARY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT TIMING AND LOCATION IS STILL
UNDETERMINED AS IT DEPENDS ON TONIGHTS CONVECTION.  ..LE..

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CST THU MAY 3 2012/

SYNOPSIS...
12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A LLJ RUNNING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES WITH A WEAK TROF FROM WISCONSIN INTO ILLINOIS. 850MB DEW
POINTS WERE IN THE MID TEENS FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO
KANSAS. SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOWS THE CI/CS
SHIELD RAPIDLY THINNING ACROSS THE AREA WITH DIURNAL CU DEVELOPING
WHERE THE STRONGEST HEATING IS OCCURRING.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE MISSOURI MCS
SLOWLY MOVING NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI AS A WARM FRONT. TWO
WEAK BUT SUBTLE BOUNDARIES WERE MOVING EAST ACROSS ILLINOIS THAT
WHERE PARTIALLY ASSOCIATED WITH OUTFLOW FROM THE NOCTURNAL MCS. A
WEAK LOW WAS NEAR KLSE WITH A FRONT SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHWEST IOWA
BEFORE DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH NEBRASKA. DEW POINTS WERE GENERALLY IN
THE 60S ACROSS THE MIDWEST WITH A TONGUE OF 70S MOVING NORTH INTO
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
THE QUESTION IS HOW WILL CONVECTION EVOLVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

LATEST TRENDS INDICATE A RESPECTABLE CAP IS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWFA EVIDENT BY THE LACK OF CU DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...
CU DEVELOP IS OCCURRING FROM SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHERN IOWA
AND NORTHERN MISSOURI WHERE THE STRONGEST WAA IS OCCURRING. IF THE
OVERALL CAP ACROSS KANSAS/MISSOURI CAN MOVE A LITTLE FURTHER
NORTH...THE MCS THAT DEVELOPS TONIGHT WOULD MOVE RIGHT ACROSS THE
CWFA. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF POTENTIAL ENERGY IN THE ATMOSPHERE...
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE THE INDIVIDUAL STORMS EVOLVE
INTO THE HEAVY RAIN MCS LATER THIS EVENING.

TRENDS FROM THE RAP MODEL USING THE MCS...HEAVY RAIN...AND LIFT
TOOLS ARE SUGGESTING CONVECTION DEVELOPING FROM NORTHEAST ILLINOIS
INTO THE SOUTHERN CWFA AND THEN WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA OR ALONG
THE IA/MO BORDER. IF CORRECT...THE SOUTHERN HALF OR SO OF THE CWFA
WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING STORMS TONIGHT. PWATS ON THE
12Z DVN SOUNDING WERE 218 PERCENT OF NORMAL AND THE RAP TRENDS TAKE
PWATS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA TO ALMOST 2 INCHES OVERNIGHT. THUS
THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN IS VERY REAL. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF IS ROUGHLY 2 INCHES IN ONE HOUR.

CORFIDI VECTORS INDICATE STORMS SHOULD MOVE AT A RESPECTABLE PACE
EARLY ON BUT THE FORWARD PROPAGATING VECTORS INDICATE STORM MOVEMENT
WILL SLOW OVERNIGHT.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ROUGHLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA WAS
CONSIDERED. HOWEVER...THE BACKWARD PROPAGATING VECTORS REALLY DO NOT
BECOME PERPENDICULAR OR OPPOSITE OF THE FORWARD VECTORS OVERNIGHT
SUGGESTING THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF TRAINING. DEPENDING
UPON HOW STORMS EVOLVE THIS EVENING...HEADLINES FOR A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH MAY NEED TO BE REVISITED.

THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWFA MAY NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CONVECTION UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. THE CURRENT STORMS THAT ARE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHWARD MOVING BOUNDARY SHOULD GENERALLY KEEP
MOVING EAST THROUGH SUNSET.

ASSUMING THE MCS DEVELOPS AND MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA
TONIGHT...A DECAYING MCS WILL BE OVER THE CWFA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. THE CS/CI SHIELD FROM THE MCS WILL SLOWLY DECAY DURING THE
DAY AND BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM THE MCS WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR
NEW DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.    ..08..

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY
THE VERY ACTIVE AND WET PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE A MUCH COOLER REGIME TAKES
AFFECT ON ON THE REGION...WITH AN UPPER LOW DOMINATING THE
MIDWESTERN WEATHER.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE FRONT SHOULD STALL
NEAR OUR WESTERN BORDER...MORE OR LESS BECOMING A BACKDOOR FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES MAY BE MUCH COOLER THAN FORECAST...BUT FOR
NOW THERE IS STRONG MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING UPPER 60S NORTHEAST TO
AROUND 80 SOUTHWEST FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL
DETERMINE JUST HOW SHARP OF A CONTRAST WE SEE. WHILE LOW LEVELS WILL
BECOME LESS HIGH DEWPOINT PRONE...ATMOSPHERIC PWAT VALUES CONTINUE
TO RUN NEAR 200% OR HIGHER MUCH OF THE PERIOD THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
ROUNDS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY WITH THE HIGHEST THREAT
AT NIGHT AND EARLY MORNINGS FRIDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. SYNOPTICALLY..SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT OFFER THE
MOST PREDICTABLY HIGH HEAVY RAIN THREAT...BUT ELEVATED STORMS MAY
CONTINUE TO TRAIN AT TIMES NOCTURNALLY LEADING TO NARROW EXCESSIVE
RAINFALLS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS. TIME WILL TELL...BUT OUR
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS SEEM MOST AT RISK FOR THESE RAINS.

MONDAY LATE MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY APPEARS COOL...AND MAY SEE SOME
SPOTTY DIURNAL SHOWERS UNDER THE UPPER LOW. HOWEVER...WITH LOW PWAT
VALUES AND LITTLE CONVERGENCE...RAINFALL AMOUNT SHOULD BE
NEGLIGIBLE. WHILE COOLER THAN NOW...WE ARE TALKING ABOUT HIGHS IN
THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S...WHICH IS AT LEAST SENSIBLY PLEASANT
WEATHER...AND A WELCOME RELIEF FROM THE RECENT HUMIDITY AND RAINS.
ERVIN

HYDROLOGY...
THE PAST WEEKS WORTH OF RAINFALL...WHICH AVERAGED 1 TO 3 INCHES HAS
MOISTENED DRY SOILS IN SOME LOCATIONS...WHILE SATURATING IT IN
OTHERS. FLASH FLOODING IS A THREAT FROM TRAINING STORMS.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 4 DAYS WITH
SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN THAT MAY BE HEAVY. THE IMPACTS OF RAIN ON
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE...BUT ARE POSSIBLE IN MOST OF
THE REGION. TRIBUTARY RIVER FLOODING IS A STRONG POSSIBILITY FRONT
THIS WET WEATHER PATTERN.

THE NEXT ROUND OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR TONIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. DEPENDING UPON RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND WHERE IT
FALLS...THERE IS A REASONABLY GOOD CHANCE OF MINOR FLOODING ON SOME
AREA RIVERS. SUBSEQUENT RAIN EVENTS STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
BECOME MORE IMPORTANT AND WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR MORE
SIGNIFICANT RISES DEVELOPING ON AREA RIVERS.  THE LOCATION FOR
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WHEN KNOWN...WILL LIKELY BE PLACED INTO A FLOOD
WATCH.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

LE

Hazardous weather outlook, May 3, 4:27 AM CDT, 17 hours 19 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
427 AM CDT THU MAY 3 2012

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-040930-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-
CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-
HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-
WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON-
WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
427 AM CDT THU MAY 3 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ONE OR MORE EPISODES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
WIDESPREAD TOTAL HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO LOCALLY OVER 2 INCHES
ARE LIKELY THAT MAY RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT WATER ISSUES AND EVENTUAL
RIVER FLOODING. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LEVELS WITH
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS OF 60 TO 70 MPH THE PRIMARY THREAT AND LARGE HAIL
THE SIZE OF QUARTERS THE SECONDARY THREAT.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA IN A SLIGHT
RISK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

FRIDAY...THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED A SLIGHT RISK OVER THE ENTIRE AREA.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT. SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL
BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING FROM LARGE
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES WITH HEAVY RAINFALL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN AND POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD
TO RIVER FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NICHOLS/SHEETS

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 3, 8:46 PM CDT, 1 hour before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
846 PM CDT THU MAY 03 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0844 PM     TORNADO          WAYLAND                 41.15N 91.66W
05/03/2012                   HENRY              IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NEAR 120TH STREET NEAR WAYLAND.

&&

Local storm report, May 3, 8:52 PM CDT, 54 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
852 PM CDT THU MAY 03 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0831 PM     HAIL             NORWAY                  41.90N 91.92W
05/03/2012  E1.00 INCH       BENTON             IA   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

Local storm report, May 3, 9:07 PM CDT, 39 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
907 PM CDT THU MAY 03 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0850 PM     TORNADO          2 NE WAYLAND            41.17N 91.63W
05/03/2012                   WASHINGTON         IA   PUBLIC

            TORNADO WENT OVER THE RESIDENCE AT 2711 330TH ST ABOUT 2
            MILES NORTHEAST OF WAYLAND. TIME ESTIMATED. RELAYED 911
            CALL FROM WASHINGTON COUNTY SHERIFF OFFICE.

&&

Local storm report, May 3, 9:22 PM CDT, 24 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
922 PM CDT THU MAY 03 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0855 PM     TORNADO          4 NE WAYLAND            41.19N 91.60W
05/03/2012                   WASHINGTON         IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HEAVY DAMAGE AT 3229 SPRUCE AVE ABOUT 4 MILES NORTHEAST
            OF WAYLAND. RELAYED BY SPOTTER. TIME ESTIMATED.

&&

Local storm report, May 3, 9:36 PM CDT, 10 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
936 PM CDT THU MAY 03 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0927 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 E CENTERDALE          41.65N 91.26W
05/03/2012  E70 MPH          CEDAR              IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

12

Local storm report, May 3, 9:45 PM CDT, 1 minute before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
945 PM CDT THU MAY 03 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0927 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 E CENTERDALE          41.65N 91.26W
05/03/2012  E70.00 MPH       CEDAR              IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

0901 PM     HAIL             1 N PARNELL             41.60N 92.00W
05/03/2012  E0.88 INCH       IOWA               IA   EMERGENCY MNGR

0901 PM     TSTM WND GST     E SOLON                 41.80N 91.49W
05/03/2012  E60.00 MPH       JOHNSON            IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

0901 PM     HAIL             E SOLON                 41.80N 91.49W
05/03/2012  E0.75 INCH       JOHNSON            IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

0855 PM     TORNADO          4 NE WAYLAND            41.19N 91.60W
05/03/2012                   WASHINGTON         IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HEAVY DAMAGE AT 3229 SPRUCE AVE ABOUT 4 MILES NORTHEAST
            OF WAYLAND. RELAYED BY SPOTTER. TIME ESTIMATED.

0850 PM     HAIL             SOLON                   41.81N 91.49W
05/03/2012  E1.75 INCH       JOHNSON            IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0850 PM     TORNADO          2 NE WAYLAND            41.17N 91.63W
05/03/2012                   WASHINGTON         IA   PUBLIC

            TORNADO WENT OVER THE RESIDENCE AT 2711 330TH ST ABOUT 2
            MILES NORTHEAST OF WAYLAND. TIME ESTIMATED. RELAYED 911
            CALL FROM WASHINGTON COUNTY SHERIFF OFFICE.

0844 PM     TORNADO          WAYLAND                 41.15N 91.66W
05/03/2012                   HENRY              IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NEAR 120TH STREET NEAR WAYLAND.

0831 PM     HAIL             NORWAY                  41.90N 91.92W
05/03/2012  E1.00 INCH       BENTON             IA   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

0816 PM     HAIL             W NORWAY                41.90N 91.93W
05/03/2012  E0.75 INCH       BENTON             IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME SIZED HAIL FELL BETWEEN 816 PM AND 819 PM.

0808 PM     HAIL             2 SSW LADORA            41.73N 92.20W
05/03/2012  E1.75 INCH       IOWA               IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GOLFBALL SIZED HAIL.

0737 PM     HAIL             2 WNW VAN HORNE         42.02N 92.12W
05/03/2012  E0.75 INCH       BENTON             IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

0722 PM     HAIL             1 NW VAN HORNE          42.02N 92.11W
05/03/2012  E0.25 INCH       BENTON             IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

0721 PM     HAIL             SE ATKINS               41.99N 91.86W
05/03/2012  E0.25 INCH       BENTON             IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

The office that day

Everything else NWS Quad Cities, IA issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 3, 7:31 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DVN	Benton	29 min
May 3, 8:23 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DVN	Louisa, Washington	52 min
May 3, 8:23 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DVN	Benton	15 min
May 3, 8:27 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	DVN	Henry, Jefferson, Louisa, Washington	33 min
May 3, 8:40 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DVN	Cedar, Johnson, Linn	35 min
May 3, 8:58 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	DVN	Henry, Louisa, Muscatine, Washington	32 min
May 3, 9:14 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DVN	Cedar, Clinton, Scott	31 min
May 3, 9:29 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	DVN	Louisa, Muscatine	17 min
May 3, 9:58 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	DVN	Keokuk, Louisa, Washington	6 hr
May 3, 10:20 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	DVN	Cedar, Johnson, Louisa, Muscatine, Washington	6 hr
May 3, 10:22 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DVN	Clinton, Scott	38 min
May 3, 10:44 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	DVN	Louisa, Scott	6 hr
May 3, 11:59 PM CDT	Flash Flood Watch	DVN	Des Moines, Henry, Jefferson, Keokuk, Lee, Louisa and 4 more	9 hr
May 4, 12:06 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DVN	Louisa, Muscatine	24 min
May 4, 1:10 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	DVN	Henry, Jefferson	6 hr
May 4, 2:26 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	DVN	Des Moines, Lee, Van Buren	49 min
May 4, 2:40 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	DVN	Lee, Van Buren	6 hr
May 4, 3:07 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DVN	Lee	38 min
May 4, 4:04 AM CDT	Areal Flood Warning	DVN	Louisa, Muscatine, Washington	9 hr
May 4, 6:26 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DVN	Keokuk	49 min
May 4, 6:34 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	DVN	Keokuk	4 hr
May 4, 11:59 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	DVN	Des Moines, Henry, Lee	71 hr
May 4, 3:31 PM CDT	Flash Flood Watch	DVN	Benton, Cedar, Clinton, Des Moines, Henry, Iowa and 12 more	11 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Iowa, 2012 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.