Small Craft Advisory 82, NWS Detroit, MI

404 
WHUS73 KDTX 111345
MWWDTX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
945 AM EDT THU OCT 11 2012

...GALES WILL OCCUR TODAY...

.LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY ADVANCE THROUGH NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS 
MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN TODAY IN ADVANCE 
OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE LAKE 
WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS...ESPECIALLY FROM SAGINAW BAY ACROSS 
CENTRAL LAKE HURON. GALE WARNINGS WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR LAKE HURON 
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WITH 40 KNOT GUSTS EXPECTED AT TIMES THIS 
AFTERNOON WITHIN AFOREMENTIONED PEAK WIND SWATH WITH 35 KNOT GUSTS 
ON EITHER SIDE OF THAT.

GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST WITHIN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE 
OF THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD EXTEND 35 KNOT GUSTS OVER 
NORTHERN LAKE HURON THROUGH THE EVENING GIVEN BETTER FETCH TO HELP 
ELEVATE WIND GUSTS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE 
AREA BY FRIDAY...ALLOWING WINDS AND WAVES TO SUBSIDE. ANOTHER LOW 
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...LEADING TO 
TO INCREASED WINDS AND WAVES AS WELL AS A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF 
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.

DG

LHZ421-441-120000-
/O.CAN.KDTX.SC.Y.0080.000000T0000Z-121011T1400Z/
/O.EXT.KDTX.GL.W.0027.121011T1345Z-121012T0000Z/
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER
SAGINAW BAY-PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-
945 AM EDT THU OCT 11 2012

...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS CANCELLED THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THE GALE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL
8 PM EDT THIS EVENING. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 35 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 43 
  KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 10 FEET 
  WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 14 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 1 PM EDT 
  THURSDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 3 PM EDT 
  THURSDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ422-442-443-462>464-120000-
/O.EXT.KDTX.GL.W.0027.121011T1345Z-121012T0000Z/
INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI-
HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
945 AM EDT THU OCT 11 2012

...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THE GALE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 35 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 43 
  KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 12 FEET 
  WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 17 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 2 PM EDT 
  THURSDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 5 PM EDT 
  THURSDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ361>363-120145-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0027.000000T0000Z-121012T0300Z/
LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT
BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND
5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF
SHORE-
945 AM EDT THU OCT 11 2012

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 36 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 
  KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 13 FEET 
  WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 19 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 2 PM EDT 
  THURSDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 4 PM EDT 
  THURSDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LCZ460-LEZ444-120145-
/O.EXT.KDTX.SC.Y.0082.121011T1345Z-121012T0300Z/
LAKE ST. CLAIR-
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI-
945 AM EDT THU OCT 11 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT 
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 23 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS 
  UP TO 32 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL 
  BE 5 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 7 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 3 PM EDT 
  THURSDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 3 PM EDT 
  THURSDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

008 
WHUS73 KDTX 111939
MWWDTX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
339 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2012

...GALES WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...

.LATEST MARINE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS LAKE HURON REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF 
CONTINUING THE GALE WARNING INTO THE EVENING. A COLD FRONT NOW OVER 
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON WILL ADVANCE ACROSS 
LAKE ERIE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST FOLLOWING FROPA. 
WHILE GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS WILL PERSIST IN THE POST FRONTAL COLD 
AIRMASS THIS EVENING...THE GRADIENT WILL QUICKLY RELAX OVERNIGHT 
ALLOWING WINDS AND WAVES TO DIMINISH. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL 
DOMINATE THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS. WINDS ARE 
THEN EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM 
SYSTEM LIFTS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

LHZ361>363-120300-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0027.000000T0000Z-121012T0300Z/
LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT
BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND
5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF
SHORE-
339 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2012

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 35 KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 KNOTS. 
  THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 10 FEET WITH A 
  POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 14 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 3 PM EDT 
  THURSDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 9 PM EDT 
  THURSDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ421-422-441>443-462>464-120000-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0027.000000T0000Z-121012T0000Z/
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER
SAGINAW BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI-
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
339 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2012

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 38 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 
  KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 9 FEET 
  WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 13 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 3 PM EDT 
  THURSDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 4 PM EDT 
  THURSDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LCZ460-LEZ444-120300-
/O.CON.KDTX.SC.Y.0082.000000T0000Z-121012T0300Z/
LAKE ST. CLAIR-
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI-
339 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT 
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 26 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS 
  UP TO 34 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL 
  BE 5 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 7 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 3 PM EDT 
  THURSDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 3 PM EDT 
  THURSDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

058 
WHUS73 KDTX 112354
MWWDTX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
754 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2012

...HIGHER WAVES CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS LAKE HURON THIS 
EVENING...WITH NO MORE STATIONS REPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS. 
THEREFORE WILL PULL DOWN THE GALE WARNINGS ACROSS ALL OF THE LAKE 
HURON ZONES EARLY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS 
SAGINAW BAY WITH RESIDUAL WAVES TRACKING SOUTH BEHIND THE COLD 
FRONT...THEREFORE WILL REPLACE THE GALE WARNINGS WITH SMALL CRAFT 
ADVISORIES FOR THE LAKE HURON NEARSHORE AND SAGINAW BAY ZONES. 
FURTHER SOUTH WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW SMALL CRAFT 
CRITERIA...THEREFORE WILL CANCEL THE SMALL CRAFTS OVER LAKE ST. 
CLAIR AND WESTERN LAKE ERIE EARLY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL 
DOMINATE THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS. WINDS ARE 
THEN EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM 
SYSTEM LIFTS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

LHZ421-441>443-121200-
/O.CAN.KDTX.GL.W.0027.000000T0000Z-121012T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KDTX.SC.Y.0083.121011T2354Z-121012T2000Z/
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER
SAGINAW BAY-PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-
HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
754 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT FRIDAY...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT FRIDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT 
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 26 KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  31 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 7 
  FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 10 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 7 PM EDT 
  THURSDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 7 PM EDT 
  THURSDAY. 

THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ422-120800-
/O.CAN.KDTX.GL.W.0027.000000T0000Z-121012T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KDTX.SC.Y.0083.121011T2354Z-121012T0800Z/
INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI-
754 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT 
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 22 KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 
  26 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 5 
  FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 7 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 7 PM EDT 
  THURSDAY WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 7 PM EDT 
  THURSDAY. 

THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ462>464-120100-
/O.CAN.KDTX.GL.W.0027.000000T0000Z-121012T0000Z/
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
754 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2012

...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS CANCELLED THE
GALE WARNING. 

$$

LHZ361>363-120100-
/O.CAN.KDTX.GL.W.0027.000000T0000Z-121012T0300Z/
LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT
BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND
5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF
SHORE-
754 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2012

...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS CANCELLED THE
GALE WARNING. 

$$

LCZ460-LEZ444-120100-
/O.CAN.KDTX.SC.Y.0082.000000T0000Z-121012T0300Z/
LAKE ST. CLAIR-
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI-
754 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS CANCELLED THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. 

$$

KURIMSKI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
320 AM EDT THU OCT 11 2012

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AFTER A CHILLY START EARLY THIS MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
NICELY ON AN INCREASINGLY GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO PUSH 60 IN MOST LOCATIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG/NORTH OF INTERSTATE
69 AS A COLD FRONT SLIPS SOUTH INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. THIS
FRONT WILL ALSO BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THESE
NORTHERN LOCATIONS DURING MID/LATE AFTERNOON. IF IT WASN/T FOR THE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY...SAGINAW VALLEY WOULD PROBABLY
TOP 60 PRETTY EASILY WITH SUCH A GUSTY SOUTHWEST FLOW...BUT AS IT
IS...WILL CAP THEM OFF AT 59 OR 60.

COLD FRONT WILL SEEP SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA DURING
THE NIGHT TONIGHT...BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. WITH STEADY COLD AIR ADVECTION AND EVENTUALLY PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES LATE TONIGHT...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK INTO THE
30S IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE NORTHWEST CWA MOSTLY LIKELY EDGING
BACK CLOSE TO FREEZING WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SETTLES INTO
THE MID/UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
AGGRESSIVELY INTO THE REGION. THE EFFECTS ON CLOUD COVER FOR FRIDAY,
AND THEREFORE THE HIGH TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL, WILL BE TWO FOLD.
FIRST, THE RESULTING GRADIENT WILL BE MUCH MORE NORTHERLY WHEN
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY OR OTHER RECENT FRONTAL PASSAGES, WHICH WILL
MAKE IT MUCH MORE DIFFICULT FOR LAKE CLOUDS TO ADVECT INTO THE CWA
EXCEPT PERHAPS THE THUMB AND SOME OF OUR EASTERN AREAS. THE SECOND
IS THAT THE INTRUDING LAYER OF SUBSIDENCE SHOULD BE A STRONG
LIMITING FACTOR FOR CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IN GENERAL. ALTHOUGH SOME
AFTERNOON STRATOCU CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
TROUGH TRANSITS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN, THE OVERALL EXPECTATION IS FOR
FRIDAY TO FEATURE A PRONOUNCED CLEARING TREND WHICH MAKES IT A GOOD
BET FOR HEDGING TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE, MEANING
SOMETHING CLOSER TO THE LOWER 50S AS OPPOSED TO UPPER 40S. SCATTERED
HIGH CLOUDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE JET STREAK OVER ONTARIO
AS WELL AS THOSE ADVECTING ACROSS THE UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WILL WORK IN CONCERT WITH A SUSTAINED WEAK TO
MODERATE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO PREVENT MAXIMAL RADIATING.
ALTHOUGH THE GRADIENT MAY FALL OFF FOR A TIME EARLY FRIDAY EVENING,
THE QUICK PROGRESSION OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES AHEAD OF THE LOW
EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WILL FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF A
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WIND WELL BEFORE SUNRISE SAT. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO
THE INHERITED LOWS ON FRIDAY NIGHT, WHICH STILL CALL FOR MID TO
UPPER 30S.

FOR THIS WEEKEND, THERE ARE TWO DISTINCT OUTCOMES FAVORED BY THE
GUIDANCE IN TERMS OF THE EFFECTS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW,
STILL OFF THE CA COAST, ON SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. THE FIRST, OFFERED BY
THE GEM/NAM/12Z ECMWF, IS FOR AN OVERALL SHORTER DURATION EVENT
MAINLY CHARACTERIZED BY WARM FRONTAL PRECIP TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY COLD FROPA EARLY SUNDAY. THE OTHER
OUTCOME, OFFERED BY THE GFS/UK, IS ONE IN WHICH A PORTION OF THE
ENERGY SHEARS NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. THIS
OUTCOME WOULD FAVOR SIMILAR SENSIBLE WX FOR SATURDAY, BUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WETTER SUNDAY WOULD BE IN THE OFFING AS THE BULK OF
THE ENERGY WOULD THEN LIFT MORE SLOWLY INTO THE AREA DRAGGING A
DEEPER AND SLOWER MOVING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE STATE. GIVEN THE
POORLY SAMPLED NATURE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE NPAC AT
THIS TIME AND THE INHERENT LOW FORECASTABILITY OF CLOSED LOW
EVOLUTIONS IN GENERAL, IT IS DIFFICULT TO LEAN STRONGLY IN ONE
DIRECTION. HOWEVER, THE FRESHLY ARRIVING 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
OFFER A NOTEWORTHY SHIFT IN TERMS OF SUPPORT FOR THEIR OPERATIONAL
COUNTERPART AS DOES THE 00Z ECMWF HOT OFF THE PRESS THIS MORNING.
THE CONSENSUS FORECAST, MINUS THE 00Z GEM/NAM, WOULD THEN FAVOR MORE
A MORE AGGRESSIVE POP FOR SUNDAY, PARTICULARLY EARLIER IN THE DAY
BEFORE POTENTIALLY GETTING DRY SLOTTED UNDERNEATH THE UPPER JET
CORE. AT THIS TIME, THERE WAS NO NEED TO MAKE A CHANGE TO THE DAY 4
BLENDED GRIDS. AFTER SPENDING MUCH OF THE WEEKEND IN THE PRE-FRONTAL
WARM SECTOR, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK TO AROUND 60 TO BEGIN NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY ADVANCE THROUGH NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN TODAY IN ADVANCE
OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE LAKE
WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS...ESPECIALLY FROM SAGINAW BAY ACROSS
CENTRAL LAKE HURON. GALE WARNINGS WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR LAKE HURON
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING WITH 40 KNOT GUSTS EXPECTED AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON WITHIN AFOREMENTIONED PEAK WIND SWATH WITH 35 KNOT GUSTS
ON EITHER SIDE OF THAT.

GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST WITHIN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD EXTEND 35 KNOT GUSTS OVER
NORTHERN LAKE HURON THROUGH THE EVENING GIVEN BETTER FETCH TO HELP
ELEVATE WIND GUSTS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE
AREA BY FRIDAY...ALLOWING WINDS AND WAVES TO SUBSIDE. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...LEADING TO
TO INCREASED WINDS AND WAVES AS WELL AS A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 137 AM EDT THU OCT 11 2012

//DISCUSSION...

DRY AIR HAS ERODED THE CLOUDS OVER THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP LATER THIS
MORNING...GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS AT THE TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE
DAYTIME HOURS WITH A PERSISTENT TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL
DRIVE ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION...BRINGING THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. DESPITE THE RAIN CHANCES...COVERAGE WILL BE LOW
ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE CURRENT TAFS AS CHANCES ARE ONLY ABOUT 30
PERCENT. THE FRONT WILL BRING LOWER CEILINGS TO THE TAF SITES DURING
THIS TIME...GENERALLY IN THE 3K TO 5K FOOT RANGE.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS
  TODAY.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FREEZE WARNING...MIZ047-MIZ048-MIZ049-MIZ053-MIZ054-MIZ055-MIZ060-
     MIZ061-MIZ062-MIZ063-MIZ068-MIZ069-MIZ070-MIZ075-MIZ076-MIZ082-
     MIZ083...UNTIL 9 AM THURSDAY.

LAKE HURON...
     GALE WARNING...LHZ361-LHZ362-LHZ363...UNTIL 11 PM THURSDAY.

     GALE WARNING...LHZ421-LHZ422-LHZ441-LHZ442-LHZ443-LHZ462-LHZ463-
     LHZ464...FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 8 PM THURSDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...OUTER SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS
     FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH...UNTIL 10 AM THURSDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 11 PM FRIDAY.

MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 11 PM FRIDAY.

&&

SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....JVC
MARINE.......DG
AVIATION.....DG

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
330 AM EDT THU OCT 11 2012

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-120730-
MIDLAND-BAY-HURON-SAGINAW-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-LAPEER-
ST. CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-LENAWEE-MONROE-
330 AM EDT THU OCT 11 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LCZ422-423-460-LEZ444-LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443-462>464-120730-
ST. CLAIR RIVER-DETROIT RIVER-LAKE ST. CLAIR-
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI-
LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT
BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND 5NM
OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER SAGINAW
BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI-
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
330 AM EDT THU OCT 11 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
HURON AND LAKE ST CLAIR.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL LAKE HURON WATERS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR LAKE SAINT CLAIR AND THE MICHIGAN
WATERS OF LAKE ERIE. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE FORECAST FOR
MORE DETAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR LAKE SAINT CLAIR AND THE
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST MARINE
FORECAST FOR MORE DETAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).