Severe Thunderstorm Warning 108, NWS Des Moines, IA

683 
WWUS53 KDMX 152117
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
417 PM CDT FRI JUN 15 2012

IAC025-151-161-152145-
/O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0108.000000T0000Z-120615T2145Z/
SAC IA-POCAHONTAS IA-CALHOUN IA-
417 PM CDT FRI JUN 15 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN
CALHOUN...WESTERN POCAHONTAS AND NORTHEASTERN SAC COUNTIES UNTIL 445
PM CDT...

AT 414 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF NEWELL...OR 19 MILES SOUTHEAST OF STORM LAKE...MOVING
NORTH AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  LAURENS...FONDA...VARINA AND HAVELOCK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY
INSIDE A REINFORCED BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY 
RESULT IN PONDING OF WATER OR LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING. 

&&

LAT...LON 4257 9492 4287 9492 4288 9468 4237 9474
      4236 9505 4257 9510
TIME...MOT...LOC 2117Z 184DEG 15KT 4253 9487
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

DONAVON

629 
WWUS53 KDMX 152134
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
434 PM CDT FRI JUN 15 2012

IAC025-151-161-152145-
/O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0108.000000T0000Z-120615T2145Z/
SAC IA-POCAHONTAS IA-CALHOUN IA-
434 PM CDT FRI JUN 15 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN
CALHOUN...WESTERN POCAHONTAS AND NORTHEASTERN SAC COUNTIES UNTIL 445
PM CDT...

AT 433 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL...
AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7
MILES EAST OF NEWELL...OR 17 MILES EAST OF STORM LAKE...MOVING NORTH
AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  LAURENS...VARINA AND HAVELOCK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY
INSIDE A REINFORCED BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS. TURN AROUND DON/T DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 4236 9501 4256 9503 4256 9491 4287 9492
      4288 9468 4237 9474
TIME...MOT...LOC 2134Z 183DEG 15KT 4261 9487
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.50IN

$$

DONAVON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
240 PM CDT FRI JUN 15 2012

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT/
REMNANTS FROM MCV STILL SPINNING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN IA/NRN MO WITH
STORMS STARTING TO DEVELOP ALONG PSEUDO-COLD FRONT/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EMANATING OUT FROM THE SFC REFLECTION. ENTIRE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
TRANSLATE NORTH TO NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE STATE TONIGHT.
HRRR/NAM/RAP ALL SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AND THEREFORE
HAVE TRENDED POPS ACCORDINGLY. DRY AIR EXPECTED TO PUNCH IN BEHIND
THE SYSTEM BY LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN/WESTERN CWA.
THEREFORE HAVE BEST COVERAGE POPS FROM NOW THROUGH ABOUT 03-06Z WITH
CHANCE CONFINED TO THE FAR EAST/NORTHEAST BY LATE TONIGHT. MODELS
SHOWING DECENT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF CWA SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS. HAVE
THEREFORE KEPT CLOUD COVER HIGHER FOR LATE NIGHT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER DEW POINTS...ESPECIALLY
EASTERN CWA...SHOULD SEE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN
THE 60S.

.LONG TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT OF THIS TIME PERIOD IS A LOWERING OF FCST RAIN
AMOUNTS FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST.

HAVE LOWERED POPS AND QPF AMOUNTS FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...DUE
TO TRENDS IN GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE FACT THAT ACTUAL PRECIP
AMOUNTS HAVE RECENTLY TENDED TO BE LESS IN AMOUNT AND COVERAGE
THAN EXPECTED. MCV CURRENTLY IN WESTERN IA IS EXPECTED TO BE IN
SRN MN BY SATURDAY MORNING AND WILL TAKE THE PCPN CHANCES WITH IT
AS IT LIFTS NE. NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR PCPN WILL BE A SHORT WAVE
TRAVERSING THE STATE ON SATURDAY. TIMING IS SUCH THAT THE BEST
CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEVELOPMENT WILL BE IN OUR EASTERN
CWA. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINFALL. PWAT VALUES ARE IN THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH RANGE...OR IN
THE +2 STD DEVIATION TO 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
WILL HOLD OFF ON HEAVY RAIN WORDING IN THE FORECAST AND LET LATER
SHIFTS RE-ASSESS SINCE MINIMAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED ATTM. MOST
LIKELY IMPACTS...IF THEY WERE TO OCCUR...WOULD RAINFALL RATE-
DRIVEN URBAN FLOODING.

PCPN CHANCES WILL BE LOWER ON SUNDAY...BUT HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH OUR CWA BEING IN THE WAA ZONE OF
THE NORTHWARD-ADVANCING WARM FRONT. WARM FRONT SHOOTS NORTH OF OUR
CWA ON MONDAY AND HAVE LEFT FORECAST MAX TEMPS FOR MONDAY
UNCHANGED. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAINFALL WILL COME DURING THE
MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...ZOGG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
328 PM CDT FRI JUN 15 2012

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-081>086-
092>097-162030-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-
BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-
POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-
CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-APPANOOSE-
DAVIS-
328 PM CDT FRI JUN 15 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES SOUTHWEST OF A KOSSUTH TO TAMA
LINE. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE FROM LATER THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT.

STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL...STRONG WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES
POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE...AND MAY CAUSE
MINOR URBAN FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING AND AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS WILL MOST LIKELY BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY OCCUR...LEADING TO MINOR URBAN FLOODING.

IT IS TOO SOON TO DETERMINE IF SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR NEXT
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...AS WELL AS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.

ZOGG