Severe Thunderstorm Warning 105, NWS Des Moines, IA

822 
WWUS53 KDMX 150035
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
735 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

IAC063-147-150100-
/O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0105.000000T0000Z-120615T0100Z/
PALO ALTO IA-EMMET IA-
735 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN EMMET
AND NORTHWESTERN PALO ALTO COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM CDT...

AT 733 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
ESTHERVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  ESTHERVILLE...WALLINGFORD...ESTHERVILLE AIRPORT AND GRUVER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY
INSIDE A REINFORCED BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 4350 9465 4325 9459 4321 9491 4337 9492
      4342 9492 4350 9476
TIME...MOT...LOC 0036Z 240DEG 26KT 4334 9485
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

DONAVON

537 
WWUS53 KDMX 150043
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
743 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

IAC147-150053-
/O.CAN.KDMX.SV.W.0105.000000T0000Z-120615T0100Z/
PALO ALTO IA-
743 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN PALO ALTO COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED 
AREA.

LAT...LON 4350 9465 4326 9459 4326 9491 4337 9492
      4342 9492 4350 9476
TIME...MOT...LOC 0043Z 240DEG 26KT 4336 9478

$$

IAC063-150100-
/O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0105.000000T0000Z-120615T0100Z/
EMMET IA-
743 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN EMMET
COUNTY UNTIL 800 PM CDT...

AT 742 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
ESTHERVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  ESTHERVILLE AIRPORT AND GRUVER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY
INSIDE A REINFORCED BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 4350 9465 4326 9459 4326 9491 4337 9492
      4342 9492 4350 9476
TIME...MOT...LOC 0043Z 240DEG 26KT 4336 9478
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

211 
WWUS53 KDMX 150103
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
803 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

IAC063-150113-
/O.EXP.KDMX.SV.W.0105.000000T0000Z-120615T0100Z/
EMMET IA-
803 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WESTERN EMMET COUNTY HAS
EXPIRED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA.

ADDITIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE...AND A SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM.

LAT...LON 4350 9465 4326 9459 4326 9491 4337 9492
      4342 9492 4350 9476
TIME...MOT...LOC 0043Z 240DEG 26KT 4336 9478

$$

DONAVON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
637 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
UPPER LOW SPINNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CENTRAL PRAIRIE PROVINCES AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO EXTREME SE
SD AND ERN NE. AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT...SFC TROUGH AXIS/WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SLIDE EAST INTO THE
STATE AS WELL WITH FRONT WASHING OUT SOME AS IT MOVES EAST AND MAIN
SYSTEM DYNAMICS REMAIN FURTHER NORTH CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW.
THEREFORE ANTICIPATE CONVECTION INITIALLY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY...WITH ACTIVITY DIMINISHING THROUGH LATE EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS FORCING WANES. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT ALL THAT
STRONG...AROUND 20 TO 30 KTS WITH THE STRONGEST SHEAR ACROSS THE
NORTH. EVEN THROUGH SLIGHT RISK IN PLACE AND INCREASING DECENT
INSTABILITY...NOT CONFIDENT IN WIDESPREAD SEVERE THIS EVENING WITH
WEAK SHEAR AND LIFT. REDUCED POPS FOR LATE TONIGHT AS ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AND WEAKEN BY LATE EVENING...WITH GREATEST
CHANCES OF LINGERING CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA
CLOSER TO THE STRONGER DYNAMICS AND ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST TONIGHT
WHERE HIGH RES WRF/HRRR TRYING TO BRING MCS SOUTHEAST/SOUTHWARD FROM
DEVELOPING IN NE INTO NW MISSOURI. WITH HIGHER MOISTURE AROUND...AND
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW MIN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE MILD
TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A COMPLEX PATTERN IS IN PLACE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH MULTIPLE
SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE REGION. THE JET STREAM LOOKS TO REMAIN
ENCAMPED OVER THE DAKOTAS...MINNESOTA...AND SOUTHERN CANADA INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVES DIPPING SOUTH TOWARDS
IOWA.

A 700 MB SHORTWAVE WITH AN ASSOCIATED 500 MB VORT MAX...WHICH APPEAR
TO BE INDUCED BY AN MCV THAT IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER KANSAS THIS
EVENING...WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD AS IT TRAVERSES AROUND A
RIDGE CENTERED AROUND THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. ALL MODELS BRING THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE CWA FROM 00Z TO 06Z SATURDAY AND IGNITE ANOTHER
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
IOWA. THESE SHOWERS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD SATURDAY MORNING AS A WARM
FRONT PUSHES NORTH AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER NEBRASKA
AND KANSAS. A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE DAKOTAS
AROUND 18Z SATURDAY AND WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
TO THE REGION FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ONCE AGAIN...THE STRONGEST
DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN FURTHER NORTH WITH THE ATTENDANT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ACROSS MINNESOTA. SPED UP THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH MOST THE CWA LATE ON SATURDAY PER
GUIDANCE FROM ALL MAJOR MODELS. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND TRANSITION
INTO MORE OF A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY...THUS KEPT LOW POPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA INTO SUNDAY.

SOUTHERLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WHICH WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S THROUGH MID
NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF WEAK...POORLY TIMED SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE
TO PROPAGATE AROUND THE SOUTHEAST US HIGH...BRINGING CONTINUED
CHANCES FOR PRECIP FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...15/00Z
PRIMARY AVN CONCERN WILL BE TSRA CHANCES THROUGH THE TAF PD...ESP
THIS EVE AND EARLY TONIGHT. RADAR INDICATES TSTMS MOVING SLOWLY
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...HOWEVER THEY ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
LATER THIS EVE AND NOT PROGRESS ALL THE WAY ACROSS THE AREA. FOR NOW
HAVE OPTED NOT TO MENTION TSRA AT KALO/KDSM/KOTM...BUT THIS WILL
NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL AMENDMENTS. AT KFOD/KMCW
TSRA IS MORE LIKELY AND HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AND TEMPOS FOR -TSRA WITH
GUSTY WINDS...HOWEVER OBS TO THE WEST ARE NOT SHOWING ANY LOW CIGS
AND ANY MVFR OR LOWER VSBYS SHOULD BE VERY SHORT LIVED SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ANY SUB-VFR IN THE TAFS ATTM.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...MJB
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...LEE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
423 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>049-057>061-070>073-081>084-
092>095-152130-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-
BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-CASS-ADAIR-
MADISON-WARREN-ADAMS-UNION-CLARKE-LUCAS-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-
WAYNE-
423 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA. THERE IS ALSO A THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA WEST OF A LINE FROM ATLANTIC
TO MASON CITY...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY
THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SEVERE WEATHER MAY OCCUR FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGHOUT THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING TO PIN DOWN PREFERRED PERIODS OF
ACTIVITY. HOWEVER THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS WILL MOST LIKELY BE
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT AND AGAIN FROM TIME TO
TIME THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

IAZ050-062-074-075-085-086-096-097-152130-
TAMA-POWESHIEK-MARION-MAHASKA-MONROE-WAPELLO-APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
423 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SEVERE WEATHER MAY OCCUR FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGHOUT THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING TO PIN DOWN PREFERRED PERIODS OF
ACTIVITY. HOWEVER THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS WILL MOST LIKELY BE
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
645 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0639 PM     HAIL             ESE MANNING             41.91N 95.06W
06/14/2012  E0.88 INCH       CARROLL            IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL WAS FALLING.

&&

BEERENDS