Special Weather Statement, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1239 AM CDT TUE JUL 3 2012

.AVIATION...07/03/06Z ISSUANCE...
VFR WITH ISOLATED INLAND FOG XVG-DLH NORTH IMPROVING TO VFR
MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
ISOLATED INLAND FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF DULUTH EASTWARD THROUGH THE WISCONSIN SAND HILLS...VLIFR
IN PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORMS WITH INTENSE RAIN...LOCAL LARGE HAIL
AT TIMES...UNTIL MID MORNING TUESDAY. UNUSUALLY INTENSE LIGHTNING
WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THUNDERSTORM AREAS.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2012/

SHORT TERM...A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE FA WILL LIFT NE INTO
CANADA THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING E THROUGH ND
ATTM. EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FORM AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
OVERSPREAD THE FA THROUGH THE EVENING. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS VERY
GOOD WITH DAYTIME HEATING LEADING TO LARGE SBCAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 5000 J/KG IN THE WESTERN FA ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
LAPS DATA. ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO TONIGHT TO RY AND TIME THE
COMPLEX THROUGH THE AREA. WILL MAINTAIN THE HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL
02Z WHEN THE STORMS OVERTURN THE ATMOSPHERE AND REMOVE THE
ADVISORY POTENTIAL.

STORMS MAY LINGER ACROSS NW WI AND THE ARROWHEAD TUESDAY MORNING
AND HAVE LOW POPS IN PLACE AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY APPEARS TO
UNDERCUT THE UPPER RIDGE. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE SHORT WAVE
MOVES E WITH THE UPPER RIDGE PREVAILING. ATTM...NOT EXPECT HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA ON TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING WILL
COVER THE FA TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MDLS AGREE THAT ANOMALOUS 50H HEIGHTS WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF WARM/HOT AIR IN SFC
LAYER TO MAKE CONDITIONS QUITE UNCOMFORTABLE WED/THUR. NOT VERY
CONFIDENT WITH CURRENT FCST OF POPS BASED ON LATEST EC AND OVERALL
SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN. A SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA
WED NIGHT. THIS BDRY IS FORCED TO SRN MN/IA VICINITY FOR REMAINDER
OF PERIOD AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS SRN SASK/MAN AND INTO
ONTARIO. THE BDRY WILL BE TOPPED BY WARM AIR ALOFT  SO THE IDEA IS
THAT BEST LL CONVERGENCE WILL BE IN A MOSTLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT.
HERE IN THE DLH CWA...WNW FLOW ALOFT MAY ALLOW MIGRATORY SHORTWAVE
TROFS TO ASSIST IN CONVECTION FROM TIME TO TIME...BEHIND THE FRONT.
PWATS REMAIN QUITE HIGH WED/THUR WITH 1.5" TO 2" VALUES LIKELY. TOO
MANY UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING POTENTIAL OF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN THIS
PERIOD HOWEVER WITH THE SRN EDGE OF WESTERLIES DRAPED OVERHEAD AND
HIGH PWATS...SYNOPTIC SCALE WILL PROMOTE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS IN THE
CORRIDOR FROM NRN PLAINS INTO UPPER MIDWEST.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  66  86  66  89 /  10  20  30  30
INL  61  92  67  89 /   0  30  50  20
BRD  69  94  72  92 /  10  30  30  30
HYR  68  93  72  93 /  10  10  20  20
ASX  63  85  65  88 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM....EOM
AVIATION...EOM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
104 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2012

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-031045-
KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
NORTHERN ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE-
SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-NORTHERN CASS-SOUTHERN ITASCA-
SOUTHERN CASS-CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN AITKIN-
CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-ASHLAND-IRON-
BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
104 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

...SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHLAND THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE MOST LIKELY TIME WILL BE AFTER 4
PM...THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN. A TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
WEST TO NORTHWEST AREAS SUCH AS WALKER THROUGH INTERNATIONAL FALLS WILL
MOST LIKELY SEE THE SEVERE STORMS INITIALLY...WITH THEM MOVING
EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE NORTHLAND.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE BEACHES
IN THE TWIN PORTS AREA. SEE THE SURFZONE FORECAST FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

VARIOUS FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD WARNING STATEMENTS FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY OVER ABOUT THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE NORTHLAND. THE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SEVERE.

MORE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHLAND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. SOME OF THE STORMS
DURING THIS PERIOD COULD BE SEVERE...AND MORE DETAILS WILL BE
ADDED AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEK.

IT WILL BE A WARM AND HUMID WEEK...AND HEAT ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS MAY BE
NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY. IT
LOOKS LIKE THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST AND MOST HUMID.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

LSZ121-140>148-031045-
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
104 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DULUTH (ALL LOWER CASE)

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
114 AM CDT TUE JUL 3 2012

MNZ036>038-WIZ001-030700-
CARLTON/SOUTH ST. LOUIS-DOUGLAS-PINE-SOUTH AITKIN-
114 AM CDT TUE JUL 3 2012

...STRONG STORMS THIS MORNING...

AT 109 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ARTHYDE...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING UP TO PENNY SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS
UP TO 40 MPH...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  WILLOW RIVER...       SANDSTONE...          RUTLEDGE...
  FRIESLAND...          STURGEON LAKE...      BARNUM...
  ASKOV...              NEMADJI...            BRUNO...
  NICKERSON...          KERRICK...            DUQUETTE...
  PLEASANT VALLEY...    HOLYOKE...            DUXBURY...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS
PASSED.

LAT...LON 4607 9307 4615 9307 4614 9343 4624 9344
      4624 9377 4660 9366 4655 9225 4603 9238

DAP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
115 AM CDT TUE JUL 3 2012

WIZ006-007-030630-
BURNETT-WASHBURN-
115 AM CDT TUE JUL 3 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...

AT 114 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR WEBB LAKE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...WIND
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS...

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  LAMPSON AND TREGO BY 130 AM...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. SEEK
SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 4608 9167 4574 9185 4592 9237 4612 9221

GROCHOCINKSI

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