Severe Thunderstorm Warning 84, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
634 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2012

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS.
VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST CYCLE. EXPECT TSRA TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP/SPREAD ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING.
THE EXCEPTION IS INL WHICH APPEARS TO BE ON THE PERIPHERY FOR ANY
ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE VCNTY OF THE STRONGER STORMS. STORMS WILL DIMINISH BETWEEN 08Z
AND 12Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2012/

SHORT TERM...A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE FA WILL LIFT NE INTO
CANADA THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING E THROUGH ND
ATTM. EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FORM AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
OVERSPREAD THE FA THROUGH THE EVENING. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS VERY
GOOD WITH DAYTIME HEATING LEADING TO LARGE SBCAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 5000 J/KG IN THE WESTERN FA ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
LAPS DATA. ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO TONIGHT TO RY AND TIME THE
COMPLEX THROUGH THE AREA. WILL MAINTAIN THE HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL
02Z WHEN THE STORMS OVERTURN THE ATMOSPHERE AND REMOVE THE
ADVISORY POTENTIAL.

STORMS MAY LINGER ACROSS NW WI AND THE ARROWHEAD TUESDAY MORNING
AND HAVE LOW POPS IN PLACE AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY APPEARS TO
UNDERCUT THE UPPER RIDGE. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE SHORT WAVE
MOVES E WITH THE UPPER RIDGE PREVAILING. ATTM...NOT EXPECT HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA ON TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING WILL
COVER THE FA TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MDLS AGREE THAT ANOMALOUS 50H HEIGHTS WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF WARM/HOT AIR IN SFC
LAYER TO MAKE CONDITIONS QUITE UNCOMFORTABLE WED/THUR. NOT VERY
CONFIDENT WITH CURRENT FCST OF POPS BASED ON LATEST EC AND OVERALL
SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN. A SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA
WED NIGHT. THIS BDRY IS FORCED TO SRN MN/IA VICINITY FOR REMAINDER
OF PERIOD AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS SRN SASK/MAN AND INTO
ONTARIO. THE BDRY WILL BE TOPPED BY WARM AIR ALOFT  SO THE IDEA IS
THAT BEST LL CONVERGENCE WILL BE IN A MOSTLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT.
HERE IN THE DLH CWA...WNW FLOW ALOFT MAY ALLOW MIGRATORY SHORTWAVE
TROFS TO ASSIST IN CONVECTION FROM TIME TO TIME...BEHIND THE FRONT.
PWATS REMAIN QUITE HIGH WED/THUR WITH 1.5" TO 2" VALUES LIKELY. TOO
MANY UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING POTENTIAL OF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN THIS
PERIOD HOWEVER WITH THE SRN EDGE OF WESTERLIES DRAPED OVERHEAD AND
HIGH PWATS...SYNOPTIC SCALE WILL PROMOTE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS IN THE
CORRIDOR FROM NRN PLAINS INTO UPPER MIDWEST.

AVIATION...18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTN HRS AS WARM AIR IN MID LVLS
INHIBITS CONVECTION. SOME VCTS NEAR KINL ATTM BUT IT APPEARS THAT
MAY BE IT FOR A WHILE. ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN FCST OF AREAL
COVERAGE/TIMING OF TSTMS...MAIN CORRIDOR OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER ND AND PUSH ACROSS MOST OF CWA THIS EVENING. USED TEMPO
FOR LATEST ESTIMATE OF TIMING BUT LATER FCSTS SHOULD BE MONITORED
FOR DEVELOPMENT/MOVEMENT OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ONCE IT ENTERS
REGION. AREAS OF BR WITH LOWER VIS LIKELY IN WAKE OF STORMS LATER
THIS EVENING.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  65  90  66  86 /  70  20  10  20
INL  63  89  61  92 /  80  10   0  30
BRD  71  90  69  94 /  70  10  10  30
HYR  72  89  68  93 /  60  30  10  10
ASX  68  88  63  85 /  70  30  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ010-018-025-026-
     033>038.

WI...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001>004-006>009.

LS...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...GSF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
104 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2012

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-031045-
KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
NORTHERN ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE-
SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-NORTHERN CASS-SOUTHERN ITASCA-
SOUTHERN CASS-CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN AITKIN-
CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-ASHLAND-IRON-
BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
104 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

...SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHLAND THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE MOST LIKELY TIME WILL BE AFTER 4
PM...THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN. A TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
WEST TO NORTHWEST AREAS SUCH AS WALKER THROUGH INTERNATIONAL FALLS WILL
MOST LIKELY SEE THE SEVERE STORMS INITIALLY...WITH THEM MOVING
EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE NORTHLAND.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE BEACHES
IN THE TWIN PORTS AREA. SEE THE SURFZONE FORECAST FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

VARIOUS FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD WARNING STATEMENTS FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY OVER ABOUT THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE NORTHLAND. THE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SEVERE.

MORE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHLAND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. SOME OF THE STORMS
DURING THIS PERIOD COULD BE SEVERE...AND MORE DETAILS WILL BE
ADDED AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEK.

IT WILL BE A WARM AND HUMID WEEK...AND HEAT ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS MAY BE
NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY. IT
LOOKS LIKE THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST AND MOST HUMID.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

LSZ121-140>148-031045-
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
104 PM CDT MON JUL 2 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DULUTH (ALL LOWER CASE)

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
811 PM CDT MON JUL 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0810 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 S GRAND RAPIDS        47.21N 93.52W
07/02/2012  M60 MPH          ITASCA             MN   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

HLUCHAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
814 PM CDT MON JUL 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0812 PM     HAIL             GILBERT                 47.49N 92.46W
07/02/2012  E1.75 INCH       ST. LOUIS          MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

RBERDES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
815 PM CDT MON JUL 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0814 PM     TSTM WND DMG     COHASSET                47.26N 93.62W
07/02/2012                   ITASCA             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            2 FOOT DIAMETER TREES DOWN. 60 MPH+ WINDS.

&&

DPACKING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
819 PM CDT MON JUL 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0812 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 ESE GRAND RAPIDS      47.20N 93.41W
07/02/2012  E80 MPH          ITASCA             MN   NWS EMPLOYEE

            LARGE TREES DOWN ACROSS ROADS

&&

HLUCHAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
820 PM CDT MON JUL 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0813 PM     HAIL             GILBERT                 47.49N 92.46W
07/02/2012  M1.00 INCH       ST. LOUIS          MN   AMATEUR RADIO

            AT GILBERT CAMPGROUND

&&

HLUCHAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
822 PM CDT MON JUL 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0817 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BALL CLUB               47.33N 93.94W
07/02/2012                   ITASCA             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN NORTHWEST SIDE OF BALL CLUB LAKE. MAX
            TREE DIAMETER 30 INCHES.

&&

RBERDES