Severe Thunderstorm Warning 62, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
242 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A WARM OUT OF THIS LOW
ACROSS C-S MN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WILL ALL MOVE NORTH AND EAST
TONIGHT. THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...TEMPS WERE IN THE MID EIGHTIES TO
AROUND NINETY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER SIXTIES TO LOWER SEVENTIES
WERE OCCURRING AROUND AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...WITH MOST OF OUR MN
CWA STILL SEEING TEMPS IN THE SIXTIES. STRONG FGEN IS FORECAST OVER
THE CWA TONIGHT...AND MOST MODELS AGREE ON HAVING BEST CHANCE FOR
OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. RAIN COULD BE
HEAVY AT TIMES WITH PWAT VALUES PUSHING 2 INCHES AND STRONG LIFT AND
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY. THERE WILL BE A SEVERE THREAT AS WELL...AS
WE'VE ALREADY HAD A COUPLE WARNINGS OUT WITH ONE INCH HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THAT KNOCKED DOWN SOME TREES. HIGHEST THREAT
SHOULD ROUGHLY BE SOUTH OF A WALKER TO TWO HARBORS LINE INCLUDING
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES...FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK VERY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS.
WE WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING AS IS AS WELL...AND NOT
MAKE ANY CHANGES AT THIS TIME. MOST OF THE MODELS AGREE IN PUTTING
THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS FROM OUR SOUTHWEST CWA AROUND THE
BRAINERD LAKES...ON NORTHEAST INTO THE IRON RANGE. MODELS FORECAST
SOME QPF TO 4 INCHES. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE FGEN AND
INSTABILITY EXPECTED.

CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE LATE
TONIGHT...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING THROUGH COLD FRONT THROUGH
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY ONCE AGAIN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY ALONG THE FRONT. SOME
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE AGAIN WEDNESDAY...MAINLY OVER NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE PERIOD SHOULD BEGIN IN COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHLAND
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS MAY RESULT IN SCATTERED CUMULUS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS MAY BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
NORTHLAND LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MOSTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA.
THE MODELS INDICATE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY...PROVIDING AT LEAST A COUPLE DAYS OF
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS

A WARM FRONT IN SOUTHERN MN AND CENTRAL WI WILL LIFT NORTH TO THE
LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE CANADIAN BORDER LATER TODAY...PROVIDING
CHANCES OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT ACROSS
NORTHERN MN AND NORTHWESTERN WI. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
STRONG...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN
THREATS. GENERALLY EXPECT VFR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT IN THE
HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A TRANSITION TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS
WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT THIS EVENING WITH INCREASING
THUNDERSTORM AND RAIN COVERAGE. ALSO...EAST WINDS OFF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL LIKELY REDUCE VSBY AT KDLH DUE TO FG/BR. RAIN...AND
MAYBE THUNDERSTORMS...COULD LINGER WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE
OF A PASSING COLD FRONT. WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  58  72  53  72 /  80  70  20  10
INL  57  71  49  71 /  70  40  10  20
BRD  63  71  55  74 /  80  70  10  20
HYR  69  78  54  76 /  60  70  40  10
ASX  64  79  55  74 /  50  70  40  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR MNZ012-019>021-
     025-026-033>038.

WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR WIZ001-006.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM CDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ141>147.

&&

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM....GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
948 AM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-201030-
KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
NORTHERN ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE-
SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-NORTHERN CASS-SOUTHERN ITASCA-
SOUTHERN CASS-CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN AITKIN-
CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-ASHLAND-IRON-
BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
948 AM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012

...SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TODAY...MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE...WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. A TORNADO CAN'T BE
RULED OUT EITHER...WITH THE THREAT HIGHEST FROM NEAR MILLE LACS
EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. IN ADDITION TO THE
SEVERE THREAT...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING MAY ALSO OCCUR. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND INTO
WEDNESDAY. A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
NEAR AITKIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS...AND THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHLAND.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

LSZ121-140>148-201030-
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
948 AM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR MOST OF THE
NEARSHORE WATER OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
AND HIGH WAVES WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS FOR SMALL
CRAFT IN THESE AREAS. FOR FURTHER DETAILS...PLEASE REFER TO THE
MARINE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE DULUTH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

MORE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

MELDE

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DULUTH (ALL LOWER CASE)

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
121 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0118 PM     HAIL             PINE RIVER              46.72N 94.40W
06/19/2012  M0.75 INCH       CASS               MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SGOHDE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
139 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0136 PM     HAIL             3 W EMILY               46.76N 94.02W
06/19/2012  M1.00 INCH       CROW WING          MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SGOHDE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
142 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     HAIL             12 W EMILY              46.76N 94.21W
06/19/2012  M0.75 INCH       CROW WING          MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SGOHDE

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
243 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0220 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 SW LIBBY              46.73N 93.40W
06/19/2012                   AITKIN             MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN.

&&

SGOHDE