Severe Thunderstorm Warning 61, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1236 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS

A WARM FRONT IN SOUTHERN MN AND CENTRAL WI WILL LIFT NORTH TO THE
LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE CANADIAN BORDER LATER TODAY...PROVIDING
CHANCES OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT ACROSS
NORTHERN MN AND NORTHWESTERN WI. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
STRONG...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN
THREATS. GENERALLY EXPECT VFR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT IN THE
HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A TRANSITION TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS
WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT THIS EVENING WITH INCREASING
THUNDERSTORM AND RAIN COVERAGE. ALSO...EAST WINDS OFF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL LIKELY REDUCE VSBY AT KDLH DUE TO FG/BR. RAIN...AND
MAYBE THUNDERSTORMS...COULD LINGER WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE
OF A PASSING COLD FRONT. WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012/

UPDATE...

OVERALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS
DIMINISHED AS OF LATE MORNING. WARM FRONT OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN WAS LIFTING NORTH THIS MORNING. SATELLITE
SHOWS RAPID CLEARING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...WITH
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY RISING INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

PRECIP COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD INCREASE OVER MUCH OF OUR MN
CWA AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST ALONG THE SD/MN BORDER BY EVENING
AND INCREASING FGEN DEVELOPS. THE WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TO LIFT NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...MAKING IT AS FAR NORTH AS FAR
NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY 00Z. HOWEVER...PAST EXPERIENCE SUGGESTS THE
MODELS OFTEN TIMES BRING THE FRONT TOO FAR NORTH TOO FAST.
CONVECTION IS NOT ALL THAT WIDESPREAD OR DEEP LATE THIS
MORNING...BUT IT IS STILL OCCURRING WHICH WOULD SLOW THE MOVEMENT
INTO OUR CWA. THE FRONT WILL BE KEY TO SEVERE CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS AROUND AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT
VERY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. 45-60KT OF FLOW AT 500MB WILL
CREATE FAVORABLE SHEAR. SURFACE BASED SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR A POSSIBLE TORNADO...WILL BE ALONG THE WARM
FRONT. SEVERE STORMS THAT ARE MORE ELEVATED...WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

WE WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS
TIME. POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN REMAINS...ESPECIALLY OVER OUR
SOUTHWEST ZONES WHERE MOST MODELS AGREE ON PUTTING THE HEAVIEST
PRECIP.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012/

SHORT TERM...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE CNTL PLAINS...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD FROM THE
LOW ACROSS SRN MINNESOTA AND OVER CNTL WISCONSIN. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS
MOST CNTL MN AND WRN WI. THIS ACTIVITY IS GRADUALLY SPREADING NWD
AND SHOULD OVERSPREAD MOST OF OUR CWA TODAY. THE LOW AND WARM
FRONT ARE PROGGED TO LIFT NWD OVER THE NORTHLAND
TONIGHT...CONTINUING PROVIDE FORCING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS OUR CWA. FINALLY A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE FCST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THERE ARE STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN
PLACEMENT OF QPF ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THROUGH TOMORROW...SO HAVE
FOLLOWED FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE HPC QPF GUIDANCE...WHICH LOOKS TO
FAVOR THE SLOWER UKMET/ECMWF SOLUTIONS. WITH MODEL PWAT VALUES
RANGING FROM 1.5 TO 2 INCHES DURING THIS TIME FRAME...HEAVY RAIN
FROM THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE FOR MOST AREAS. HOWEVER WILL KEEP
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THE SAME SPATIAL OUTLINE WHICH ALIGNS WELL WITH
ANTECEDENT HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS.

MODEL CAPE VALUES ALSO SHOW INCREASING INSTABILITY VALUES WITH
MUCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 500-1500 J/KG ACROSS OUR NRN ZONES BY
THIS AFTERNOON...AND 2000-4000 J/KG ACROSS OUR SRN ZONES. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WITH FAVORABLE WIND
SHEAR ALONG THE WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AT LEAST THE SRN HALF OF OUR CWA...WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT...BUT ISOLD
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT OVER PARTS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. UPPER FLOW
WILL THEN TRANSITION TO MORE NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH MOST OF THE
EXTENDED. THIS WILL BRING PERIODIC DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE CWA WITH
CHANCES FOR PRECIP AND SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES. ONE DISTURBANCE
IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN THIRD OF OUR CWA LATE THURSDAY
AND EARLY FRIDAY. KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HERE FOR THIS PERIOD.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA SATURDAY
BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF OUR CWA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA ON SUNDAY
LEADING US INTO A MUCH DRIER FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  69  59  72  53 /  70  80  70  10
INL  66  58  71  49 /  70  70  40  10
BRD  78  63  71  55 /  80  80  60  10
HYR  85  69  78  54 /  70  60  70  30
ASX  76  64  79  55 /  60  60  70  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR MNZ033-034-036-
     038.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR MNZ012-019>021-
     025-026-035-037.

WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR WIZ006.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR WIZ001.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM CDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ141>147.

&&

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM....GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
948 AM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-201030-
KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
NORTHERN ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE-
SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-NORTHERN CASS-SOUTHERN ITASCA-
SOUTHERN CASS-CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN AITKIN-
CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-ASHLAND-IRON-
BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
948 AM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012

...SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TODAY...MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE...WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. A TORNADO CAN'T BE
RULED OUT EITHER...WITH THE THREAT HIGHEST FROM NEAR MILLE LACS
EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. IN ADDITION TO THE
SEVERE THREAT...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING MAY ALSO OCCUR. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND INTO
WEDNESDAY. A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
NEAR AITKIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS...AND THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHLAND.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

LSZ121-140>148-201030-
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
948 AM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR MOST OF THE
NEARSHORE WATER OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
AND HIGH WAVES WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS FOR SMALL
CRAFT IN THESE AREAS. FOR FURTHER DETAILS...PLEASE REFER TO THE
MARINE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE DULUTH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

MORE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

MELDE

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DULUTH (ALL LOWER CASE)

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
112 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012

MNZ025-033-034-191830-
CROW WING-NORTH CASS-SOUTH CASS-
112 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE BACKUS AND LONGVILLE AREAS...

AT 111 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PINE RIVER...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING UP TO PENNY SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS
UP TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  LOWER WHITEFISH LAKE...                     WOMAN LAKE...
  SWANBURG...           WABEDO...             MISSION...
  MANHATTAN BEACH...    INGUADONA...          FIFTY LAKES...
  CROSSLAKE...          WASHBURN LAKE...

STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. SEEK SHELTER IN
A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 4704 9401 4657 9396 4653 9459 4685 9463

 MILLER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
114 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012

MNZ035>037-191830-
CARLTON/SOUTH ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTH AITKIN-
114 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT BIG SANDY LAKE AND BALSAM...

AT 114 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR FLOWAGE LAKE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING UP TO PENNY SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS
UP TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  BIG SANDY LAKE...     TAMARACK...           BALSAM...

STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. SEEK SHELTER IN
A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 4696 9305 4675 9281 4654 9336 4672 9351

 MILLER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
121 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0118 PM     HAIL             PINE RIVER              46.72N 94.40W
06/19/2012  M0.75 INCH       CASS               MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SGOHDE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
139 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0136 PM     HAIL             3 W EMILY               46.76N 94.02W
06/19/2012  M1.00 INCH       CROW WING          MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SGOHDE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
142 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     HAIL             12 W EMILY              46.76N 94.21W
06/19/2012  M0.75 INCH       CROW WING          MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SGOHDE

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>