Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
427 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012

AS OF 08Z...A FAIRLY ROBUST MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) WAS
CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH AN EXPLOSIVE COLD CONVECTIVE
CLOUD TOP SIGNAL ON INFRARED SATELLITE AS OF THE PAST HOUR. CLOUD TO
GROUND FLASH COUNT HAS ALSO INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
MATURING MCS.  VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WAS ABOUT TO MOVE INTO THE DODGE
CITY AREA...WHICH WAS BEING FED BY A 30-40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS OF 65 TO 68F.  IN THE LARGER PICTURE...A NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH WAS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT TIED TO THIS FEATURE
WAS FROM CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012

IN THE NEAR-SHORT TERM...THE ONGOING MCS SHOULD BE MOVING INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS BY DAYBREAK WITH A GRADUAL CLEARING ACROSS THE
WESTERN FORECAST AREA SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.  SURFACE WINDS
INITIALLY PERTURBED BY THE MCS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY RESPOND TO THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE GRADIENT WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY BY
MIDDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE A SHADE COOLER...ESPECIALLY
EASTERN COUNTIES GIVEN RECOVERY FROM THE MORNING MCS AND WINDS
REMAINING EASTERLY FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME.  THE SYNOPTIC COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...SETTING THE STAGE FOR RENEWED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
30-50 POPS WERE IN THE GRIDS FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING WITH HIGHEST IN THE EAST...PLAN TO RAISE THESE POPS GIVEN
INCREASED CONFIDENCE...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS
ANOTHER MCS ORGANIZES AND BECOMES MATURE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
ARKANSAS RIVER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012

AS THE REGION HEADS INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE
DOMINATED BY A FAST ZONAL FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY WHILE A BROAD...FLAT RIDGE PREVAILS OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF.  THIS WILL LEAVE WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS AT THE TAIL END OF
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES. THIS WILL LEAVE THE LEE TROUGH TO
SLOWLY DEEPEN OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
PREVAILING AT THE SURFACE. MID LEVEL WIND TRAJECTORIES OFF THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BRING 700 HPA TEMPERATURES OF +14C SUNDAY
AND UP TO +18C MONDAY. WITH MIXING EASILY MAKING IT UP TO THIS
LEVEL DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE 90S
SUNDAY AND AROUND 100 ON MONDAY LOOK LIKELY.

TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE A DRY AND WARM TREND AS
THE UPPER PATTERN REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED VIA ZONAL FLOW IN THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL LEAVE THE LEE TROUGH TO
DOMINATE AT THE SURFACE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH WARM AND
DRY SOUTH WINDS PREVAILING. GIVEN THIS SETUP...TEMPERATURES
REACHING INTO THE 90S TO AROUND 100 APPEAR LIKELY EACH DAY.

ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TOWARD LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A WEAK
FRONT SAGS INTO NORTHERN KANSAS.  APPEARS THIS WILL BRING THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.  HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN WARM
WITH READINGS IN THE 90S EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012

THE AVIATION FORECAST WILL BE DIFFICULT FROM PRETTY MUCH HOUR-ONE OF
THE FORECAST AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS THE ONGOING
OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL AFFECT GCK, DDC, HYS FROM
06-09Z.  REMNANT TRAILING STRATIFORM RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDER WILL
LIKELY LINGER (ESPECIALLY DDC AND HYS) THROUGH 11Z PERHAPS.  WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHEAST AFTER THE STORMS MOVE THROUGH
EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT SHIFT AROUND GRADUALLY TO THE EAST...THEN
SOUTHEAST...THEN SOUTH BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY TODAY.  ANOTHER
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT WITH THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING HYS TERMINAL MID-LATE AFTERNOON
AND THE DDC AND GCK TERMINALS LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  93  67  95  70 /  40  50   0   0
GCK  92  67  96  67 /  40  40   0   0
EHA  91  66  97  67 /  30  30  10  10
LBL  92  67  98  68 /  40  50   0   0
HYS  86  68  93  71 /  50  40  10  10
P28  93  71  94  72 /  50  60  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...UMSCHEID
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...AJOHNSON
AVIATION...UMSCHEID

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1035 PM CDT FRI JUN 15 2012

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-161000-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
1035 PM CDT FRI JUN 15 2012 /935 PM MDT FRI JUN 15 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND NORTHWEST KANSAS
IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS...MAINLY NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM
SYRACUSE THROUGH SATANTA AND MEADE...THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT. A SLIGHT THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL ACCOMPANY THE
STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH BEING THE MAIN
THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD
FROM ANY STORMS THAT DO BECOME SEVERE.

AN ADDITIONAL CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST OVER PORTIONS OF
THE OUTLOOK AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

CALLS TO SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED OVERNIGHT MAINLY NORTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM SYRACUSE THROUGH SATANTA AND MEADE.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
323 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012

KSZ078>080-087>089-160915-
CLARK-COMANCHE-EDWARDS-FORD-KIOWA-MEADE-
323 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN FORD...KIOWA...
NORTHEASTERN MEADE...NORTHERN CLARK...NORTHWESTERN COMANCHE AND
SOUTHERN EDWARDS COUNTIES...

AT 318 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM OFFERLE TO 13 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF FOWLER...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3778 9903 3718 9939 3735 10020 3790 9982
TIME...MOT...LOC 0823Z 285DEG 35KT 3789 9951 3725 9997

AWJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
345 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 AM     HAIL             6 NW COLDWATER          37.32N 99.41W
06/16/2012  E1.00 INCH       COMANCHE           KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
405 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 AM     TSTM WND GST     GREENSBURG              37.61N 99.29W
06/16/2012  E60 MPH          KIOWA              KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
411 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012

KSZ088-089-161000-
CLARK-COMANCHE-
411 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN CLARK AND SOUTHERN
COMANCHE COUNTIES...

AT 407 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM PROTECTION TO 9
MILES SOUTHEAST OF SITKA TO 11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ACRES...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LAT...LON 3702 10007 3728 9977 3703 9900 3702 9901
      3699 10002
TIME...MOT...LOC 0910Z 304DEG 37KT 3722 9940 3706 9952
          3694 9977

AWJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
430 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 AM     TSTM WND GST     PRATT                   37.65N 98.74W
06/16/2012  E60 MPH          PRATT              KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
437 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012

KSZ066-081-161015-
PRATT-STAFFORD-
437 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN STAFFORD AND NORTHEASTERN
PRATT COUNTIES...

AT 433 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM HUDSON TO PRESTON...
MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LAT...LON 3771 9846 3772 9864 3815 9881 3814 9847
      3783 9847 3782 9846
TIME...MOT...LOC 0937Z 273DEG 38KT 3806 9864 3772 9846

AWJ