Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1253 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 06Z TAFS...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT FRI JUN 15 2012

THIS EVENING WILL START OUT WITH A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH STRETCHED ACROSS
FAR WESTERN KANSAS. THE AIRMASS OVER FAR WESTERN KANSAS IS UNSTABLE
ENOUGH FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS, BASICALLY FROM 22Z TO 03Z, WEST
OF A LINE FROM DIGHTON TO LIBERAL, BUT I ONLY HAVE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO GO WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS. CAPE WILL BE NEAR
1500-2000 J/KG, AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A SEVERE
WEATHER WATCH ISSUED FOR A ROW OR TWO OF OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
AFTER 7 PM CDT. THERE WILL BE A MINOR WAVE COME THROUGH FROM THE
WEST TOWARD MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH IT. THE INSTABILITY WILL DIMINISH AFTER DARK, SO DO NOT
EXPECT TOO MANY SEVERE STORMS BEYOND 03Z. STAYED PRETTY CLOSE TO
THE PREVIOUS QPF AMOUNTS RANGING FROM AROUND 0.20 INCH ALONG I-70
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH.

THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL BE LINGERING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES INTO SATURDAY SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE WAKEENEY AND HAYS AREAS SATURDAY MORNING. THE WAVE OVER
MONTANA WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUSH THE COLD FRONT FARTHER SOUTH INTO
SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATE IN THE DAY. POPS WERE INCREASED TO 50
PERCENT BY 00Z SATURDAY ALONG HIGHWAY 281.

THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 70S FROM MEDICINE LODGE NORTHWARD TO HAYS,
AND FALL TO THE MID 60S IN OUR WEST NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE IN THE 90S FOR MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MORE CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE
WAKEENEY AND HAYS AREAS MAY KEEP THEM IN THE UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT FRI JUN 15 2012

A WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND
PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BRIEFLY STALL OUT
ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS/NORTHERN OKLAHOMA SATURDAY NIGHT AND NORTH
OF THIS FRONT CAPES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 1500-3000 J/KG.
850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALSO BE IMPROVING EARLY SATURDAY
NIGHT. ANY ONGOING CONVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS CONVECTION ALSO APPEARS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT GIVEN THE MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND A MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW
NORTH OF THE FRONT.

ON SUNDAY THE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH TOWARDS
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES WILL DEVELOP AS WARM 850-700MB TEMPERATURES SPREAD EAST
TOWARDS WESTERN KANSAS. THE NAM, GFS, AND ECMWF 850MB 00Z MONDAY MIX
DOWN TEMPERATURES WERE ALL IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE MID 90S AND GIVEN THE CLEARING SKIES
EXPECTED EARLY IN THE DAY WILL STAY CLOSE TO THESE TEMPERATURES.

ON MONDAY THE SURFACE PRESSURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL ALONG THE LEE
OF THE ROCKIES AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW PERSISTING AND 850-700MB
TEMPERATURE TRENDS SUGGEST THAT HIGHS COULD EASILY CLIMB TO AROUND
100 DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS IN WESTERN KANSAS.

BY MID WEEK THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OUT INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND AS IT DOES A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO
WESTERN KANSAS. CONVECTION ALONG THIS FRONT MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED
BASED ON THE WARM MID LEVELS TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL START TO INCREASE NORTH OF THIS FRONT AS EARLY AS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS MID LEVELS BEGIN TO COOL. IN ADDITION TO THE
IMPROVING PRECIPITATION CHANCES NORTH OF THIS FRONT...MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO RETURN TO WESTERN KANSAS FOR THE
LAST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012

THE AVIATION FORECAST WILL BE DIFFICULT FROM PRETTY MUCH HOUR-ONE OF
THE FORECAST AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS THE ONGOING
OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL AFFECT GCK, DDC, HYS FROM
06-09Z.  REMNANT TRAILING STRATIFORM RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDER WILL
LIKELY LINGER (ESPECIALLY DDC AND HYS) THROUGH 11Z PERHAPS.  WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHEAST AFTER THE STORMS MOVE THROUGH
EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT SHIFT AROUND GRADUALLY TO THE EAST...THEN
SOUTHEAST...THEN SOUTH BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY TODAY.  ANOTHER
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT WITH THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING HYS TERMINAL MID-LATE AFTERNOON
AND THE DDC AND GCK TERMINALS LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  95  71  99 /  40  10   0   0
GCK  67  95  69 100 /  40  10  10   0
EHA  66  95  69 100 /  30  10   0   0
LBL  67  95  70 100 /  40   0   0   0
HYS  68  92  72  99 /  50  10   0   0
P28  71  93  72  96 /  50  10   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...BURGERT
AVIATION...UMSCHEID

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
249 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012

KSZ064-077-078-087-088-160830-
CLARK-FORD-GRAY-HODGEMAN-MEADE-
249 AM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN GRAY...FORD...
NORTHEASTERN MEADE...NORTHWESTERN CLARK AND SOUTHWESTERN HODGEMAN
COUNTIES...

AT 245 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF
CIMARRON TO 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF COPELAND...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

RESIDENTS IN EASTERN GRAY...FORD...NORTHEASTERN MEADE...NORTHWESTERN
CLARK AND SOUTHWESTERN HODGEMAN COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF
MONTEZUMA...CIMARRON...THE HAGGARD ELEV...HOWELL...ENSIGN...DODGE
CITY...FOWLER...FT. DODGE...WRIGHT AND MINNEOLA...SHOULD MONITOR THE
WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE
PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

LAT...LON 3787 9957 3732 9994 3747 10057 3799 10027
TIME...MOT...LOC 0749Z 285DEG 28KT 3788 10021 3747 10047

AWJ

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