Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
600 PM CDT SAT JUN 2 2012

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FOR 00Z TAFS...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SAT JUN 2 2012

SCATTERED HIGH BASED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING AND INCREASING IN
AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
STORMS ARE MODELED BY THE VARIOUS MESOSCALE NUMERICAL MODELS TO
CONGEAL INTO ONE OR TWO SEPARATE MULTICELL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEMS AND SPREAD INTO WESTERN KANSAS ON THE EVENING. THE AXIS OF
STRONGEST INSTABILITY AND HIGH CAPE IS ORIENTED FROM SOUTHEAST
COLORADO INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE PANHANDLES. THE TOTAL
CAPES DROPS DRAMATICALLY HEADING EASTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER TERRAIN,
HOWEVER, VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN KANSAS SHOULD STILL SUPPORT PROLIFIC THUNDERSTORMS GUST
POTENTIAL THOUGH THE EVENING FROM ANY THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS THAT
BECOME SUSTAINED INTO THE AREA. THE HRRR MODEL BASICALLY DEVELOPED 2
CLUSTERS, ALLOWING THE MAIN WIND THREAT TO BE SPLIT TO THE NORTH AND
THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. IN CONTRAST THE VARIOUS WRF RUNS PRODUCE
MORE OF A SINGLE LARGER CLUSTER CENTERING TOWARD HAMILTON AND
STANTON COUNTIES BY VERY LATE AFTERNOON.

THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE AN EMBEDDED MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE/PV
ANOMALY  MOVING INTO WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE EVENING. THE
LOCALIZED MESOSCALE LIFT FROM SUCH A FEATURE SHOULD SUPPORT
CONVECTION FARTHER EAST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE EVENING HOURS
IN A MUCH WEAKENED MOST UNSTABLE CAPE ENVIRONMENT. WITH THIS
IMPULSE MOVING THOUGH THE AREA, A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 12Z IN THE EARLY
MORNING SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT JUN 2 2012

AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT, IT SHOULD BE ACROSS
SOUTHERN KANSAS BY TUESDAY MORNING, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHERN CWA, WITH A MUCH LESS CHANCE
IN THE EAST DUE TO COLD AIR SINKING IN.  AN UPPER WAVE THEN DIVES
SOUTHEAST FROM WYOMING INTO KANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, AS
THAT FRONT MEANDERS NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT.  THIS UPPER WAVE
COULD BRING UNSTABLE CONDITIONS TO MOST OF WESTERN KANSAS
WITH NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED, AND ALSO THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE
STORMS.  THE AREA EAST OF WAKEENEY TO ASHLAND WILL LIKELY HAVE THE
HIGHEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, AND THAT AREA IS WHERE SEVERE STORMS
SEEM THE MOST LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  BY FRIDAY,
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL MOVE EVEN MORE EASTWARD, EAST OF A HAYS TO
MEDICINE LODGE LINE.  SATURDAY, MOST OF THE UPPER MOMENTUM WILL HAVE
MOVED SOUTH AND EAST, SO POPS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT
FOR ALL BUT OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES, MAINLY IN THE SAINT JOHN TO PRATT
AREAS.

TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL START WITH MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
90S, COOL TO THE MID 80S BY WEDNESDAY, AND DROP AS LOW AS THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 80S BY FRIDAY.  A SLIGHT WARM UP WILL OCCUR SATURDAY AS A
DOWN SLOPE WILL DEVELOP FROM THE MID LEVELS DOWNWARD.  MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID 60S THROUGH THE EXTENDED FOR
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT SAT JUN 2 2012

FOLLOWED THE HRRR FOR TEMPORAL GUIDANCE WITH CONVECTION ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN COLORADO AS THIS MODEL SEEMS TO BE DOING FAIRLY
WELL IN COMPARING TO ACTUAL WSR-88D TRENDS. THINK THE BIGGEST CONCERN
FOR TAFS IS OUTFLOW WINDS FROM THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES. OTHERWISE,
VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  65  93  67  91 /  80  10  10  10
GCK  61  94  66  91 /  80  10  10  10
EHA  60  96  65  90 /  80  20  20  20
LBL  64  96  67  92 /  80  10  20  20
HYS  65  92  67  91 /  50  20  20  10
P28  65  93  69  91 /  40  20  30  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...SUGDEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
725 PM CDT SAT JUN 2 2012

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-040030-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
725 PM CDT SAT JUN 2 2012 /625 PM MDT SAT JUN 2 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK15 IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MARCH ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS
THIS EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS ARE HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE AND
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS
IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM CDT. SEE WEATHER MESSAGE FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS SUNDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. IT IS TO EARLY TO TELL IF ANY OF THESE STORMS WILL BE
SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

SUGDEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
709 PM CDT SAT JUN 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     TSTM WND GST     19 NW SYRACUSE          38.18N 102.00W
06/02/2012  E60 MPH          HAMILTON           KS   PUBLIC

&&

KSUGDEN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
709 PM CDT SAT JUN 2 2012

KSZ074-084-030100-
MORTON-STANTON-
709 PM CDT SAT JUN 2 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN MORTON AND STANTON
COUNTIES...

AT 705 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTH OF THE SAUNDERS ELEVATOR...MOVING
EAST AT 20 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS 50 TO 55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3772 10205 3773 10157 3716 10158 3711 10205
TIME...MOT...LOC 0009Z 249DEG 19KT 3759 10202

18

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
739 PM CDT SAT JUN 2 2012

KSZ061-062-030145-
HAMILTON-KEARNY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SYRACUSE...LAKIN...DEERFIELD
739 PM CDT SAT JUN 2 2012 /639 PM MDT SAT JUN 2 2012/

50 MPH OUTFLOW WINDS FROM A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS KICKING
UP DUST AND CREATING VERY LOW VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE REGION.
MOTORISTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING THROUGH THE
DUST PLUME...SLOW DOWN...AND USER FLASHERS TO ALERT OTHER DRIVERS.

SUGDEN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
741 PM CDT SAT JUN 2 2012

KSZ061-062-030145-
HAMILTON-KEARNY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SYRACUSE...LAKIN...DEERFIELD
739 PM CDT SAT JUN 2 2012 /639 PM MDT SAT JUN 2 2012/

50 MPH OUTFLOW WINDS FROM A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS KICKING
UP DUST AND CREATING VERY LOW VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE REGION.
MOTORISTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING THROUGH THE
DUST PLUME...SLOW DOWN...AND USE FLASHERS TO ALERT OTHER DRIVERS.

SUGDEN

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