Special Weather Statement, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
210 PM EDT WED AUG 1 2012

 .SYNOPSIS...

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY TO THE EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND THE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY TODAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING DRY WEATHER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR WILL DEVELOP FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

STILL SOME LOW CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH OVER MY NERN ZONES...BUT WILL
CONTINUE BURNING OFF TO AT LEAST P-SUNNY SKIES BEFORE TOO LONG.

MEANWHILE SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO POP OVER
THE SWRN PART OF THE REGION IN AN AREA OF MODERATE CAPE AND
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. DEEPEST MOISTURE HAS MOVED OVER EASTERN
AREAS SO EXPECTATIONS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY CONVECTION OVER
THE WRN ZONES ARE NOT AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY.

FURTHER EAST WHERE MOISTURE IS DEEPEST...HEATING HAS BEEN RETARDED
BY THE LOW CLOUDS...BUT STILL THINK ONCE TEMPS NUDGE INTO THE
LOWER 80S WE SHOULD START TO SEE SOME ACTIVITY SPARK OFF. WITH
DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AGREES THAT THE RAIN SHOULD FADE QUICKLY THIS
EVENING AS WE LOSE HEATING...LEADING TO A FAIR AND DRIER
OVERNIGHT. NW ZONES WILL DIP INTO THE COMFORTABLE 50S WHILE TEMPS
FALL BACK TO THE MID 60S OVER THE SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...

THURS LOOKS GORGEOUS WITH TEMPS ON THE WARM TO HOT SIDE BUT WITH
HUMIDITIES MAINLY ON THE COMFORTABLE SIDE. SERN ZONES WILL STAY A
LITTLE MORE HUMID...BUT NOT TERRIBLE FOR THE HEIGHT OF SUMMER.

POPS WILL BE LOW AS ANOMALOUSLY LOW PWATS AIR SLIDES THROUGH THE
REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

THE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY. HOWEVER...THE TAIL
END OF A COLD FRONT AND UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE
PASSING NORTH OF THE REGION DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS
FRIDAY WILL CREATE THE CHC FOR ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA.

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT ACROSS THE CONUS
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED...WITH SLIGHT MODIFICATIONS TAKING PLACE
IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE POSITIONS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS AS WELL AS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A TRANSITION FROM
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MEAN UPPER TROF ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW IS SEEN FOR LATE THIS
WEEK AND EARLY THIS WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF INFLUX OF MUCH
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR THIS WEEKEND AS BERMUDA HIGH AMPLIFIES
AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS TROF SLICING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT.

A SURGE OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH 850 MB MOISTURE FLUX /COUPLED WITH A
NEARLY PLUS 3 ST DEVIATION SOUTHERLY LLJ/ IS PAINTED BY THE GEFS FOR
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LATE WEEKEND UPPER TROF.

THIS STRONG...KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC FORCING ALONG AND TO THE
SOUTH OF THE NWD MVG WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY SPARK A FEW ROUNDS OF
HEAVY SHOWERS AND SOME ORGANIZED/STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SVR
AFTERNOON/EVENING TSRA SATURDAY.

ANOTHER ROUND OR TWO OF STRONG TO LCLY SEVERE TSRA APPEARS IN STORE
FOR LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS A POTENT COLD FRONT
PUSHES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GLAKES.

OVERALL...THE WEEKEND COULD BE SHAPING UP TO BE QUITE ACTIVE /SEVERE
WEATHER-WISE/ HERE IN PENN.

THE UPPER TROF WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES ON
MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY MUCH LOWER DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE AND SURFACE
DEWPOINTS LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY TO
THE REGION...ALTHOUGH EMBEDDED UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL STILL BRING
ISOLATED SHOWER THREATS EACH DAY.

NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BRIEFLY SURGE TO ABOVE NORMAL LATE
SAT AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST SE
LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...TRIMMING TEMPS AND HUMIDITY BACK TO
NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

IPT STUBBORN TO IMPROVE ON THE EDGE OF THE STRATUS SHIELD...BUT
WILL BE VFR SOON. THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE
WIDESPREAD VFR BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF IMPACTS DUE TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...MVFR WITH PATCHY IFR FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

OUTLOOK...
THU...FOG POSSIBLE EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR.
FRI-SUN...MAINLY VFR...BUT WITH DIURNAL CONVECTION POSSIBLY
CAUSING LOCALIZED REDUCED CONDITIONS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
AVIATION...LA CORTE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
557 AM EDT WED AUG 1 2012

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-021000-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-
JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-
SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-
ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
557 AM EDT WED AUG 1 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL ACCOMPANY A WARM FRONT AS IT PUSHES
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. SCATTERED STRONG TO
POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS SATURDAY.

ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG...TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
FORM ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF A POTENT COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

LAMBERT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1119 AM EDT WED AUG 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     TORNADO          1 NNE COUDERSPORT       41.79N  78.00W
07/26/2012                   POTTER             PA   NWS STORM SURVEY

            EF0 TORNADO CONFIRMED NEAR COUDERSPORT

&&

CORRECTED LOCATION

EVENT NUMBER CTP1200342

COLBERT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
314 PM EDT WED AUG 1 2012

PAZ034-035-011945-
BEDFORD PA-FULTON PA-
314 PM EDT WED AUG 1 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL BEDFORD AND FULTON
COUNTIES...

AT 308 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR SIDELING HILL REST
AREA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
EXPECT INTENSE LIGHTNING FROM THIS STORM. DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN NOR
SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS WHEN
A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES. THIS STORM WILL AFFECT SIDELING HILL REST
AREA...SALUVIA...HARRISSONVILLE AND MCCONNELLSBURG.

LAT...LON 3980 7821 4002 7837 4014 7809 4012 7802
      3998 7792 3995 7794 3993 7796 3992 7795
      3988 7797

FORECASTER: KF