Special Weather Statement, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
541 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AREA
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA INTO WED. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING LESS HUMID AND
MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THU INTO FRI. A SW FLOW OF MORE HUMID
AIR WILL WORK BACK INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
RADAR SHOWING NUMEROUS PULSE-TYPE TSRA ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS AT
21Z. EXPECT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY
AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER...LG SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE SHOULD SUSTAIN SCT SHRA/TSRA THRU THE NIGHT. FOCUS
SHOULD SHIFT FROM THE ALLEGHENY MTNS EASTWARD TO THE SUSQ VALLEY
OVERNIGHT BASED ON MDL EVOLUTION OF LL JET AND AXIS OF HIGHEST
PWATS.

WEAK SHEAR WILL RESULT IN SLOW-MOVING...GENERALLY SUB-SEVERE...PULSE
TYPE CONVECTION. HOWEVER...GIVEN 21Z SPC MESOANALYSIS CAPES IN
EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG...CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLD SVR EARLY THIS EVENING.

PARTIAL CLEARING...LGT WIND AND WET GROUND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL OR JUST
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AGAIN...EXPECT SOME SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING.

STILL A CHC OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WED AFT...BUT LESS CHC THAN
TODAY...AS THE UPPER LVL SUPPORT MOVES EASTWARD...AND SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR WORKS IN LATE.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT ACROSS THE CONUS
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED...WITH SLIGHT MODIFICATIONS TAKING PLACE
IN THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE POSITIONS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS AS WELL AS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A TRANSITION FROM
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MEAN UPPER TROF ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW IS SEEN FOR LATE THIS
WEEK AND EARLY THIS WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF INFLUX OF MUCH
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR LATE THIS WEEKEND AS BERMUDA HIGH
AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS TROF SLICING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS UPPER TROF WILL CROSS
THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY MUCH LOWER
DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS LATE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

INCREASED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THE TRANSITION TO ZONAL
UPPER FLOW LATER THIS WEEK...FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT
SURGE OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COAST STATES AHEAD OF
THE VIGOROUS GREAT LAKES TROF MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A SHARP
FROPA IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACCOMPANIED BY LOCALLY
STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING A MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY TO THE REGION...ALTHOUGH EMBEDDED
UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL STILL BRING ISOLATED SHOWER THREATS EACH DAY.

NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BRIEFLY SURGE TO ABOVE NORMAL LATE
SAT AND SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST SE
LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...TRIMMING TEMPS AND HUMIDITY BACK TO
NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD SLOWLY
WEAKEN AND BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD ONCE WE ARE PAST MAX HEATING.

STILL A CHC OF SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED.

LOWER CIGS AND FOG LIKELY LATER TONIGHT...GIVEN RATHER HIGH
DEWPOINTS IN PLACE.

SOME CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WED AFT...BUT LESS CHC.

MOST OF THU AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT CHC OF FOG EACH
MORNING.

A SW FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. WHILE
THERE COULD BE A SHOWER OR STORM...MUCH OF THE TIME SHOULD
BE DRY.

OUTLOOK...
THU...FOG POSSIBLE EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR.
FRI-SUN...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...DEVOIR
AVIATION...MARTIN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
343 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-011945-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-
JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-
SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-
ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
343 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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