Special Weather Statement, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1124 AM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TODAY
AND SATURDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
ON SUNDAY. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOIST LL JET AND ASSOCIATED PLUME OF HIGH PWATS WILL CONTINUE TO
BLANKET THE REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER IS SLOW TO
MIX OUT...AND THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPS AND MAXS
ABOUT 5F OR SO LOWER THAN THURSDAY.

A COLD FRONT DRAPED NEARLY EAST/WEST ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF PENN
LATE THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH AND TRIGGER
SCATTERED MID TO LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA AND TSRA.

SPC EXPANDED THE DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK AREA FURTHER NORTH TO NIP
LANCASTER AND YORK COUNTIES...WHERE MORE ABUNDANT SFC
HEATING/HIGHER CAPES AND THE BEST LLVL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL BE
LOCATED.

OTHERWISE...A POTENT SHORTWAVE OVER NRN LAKE MICHIGAN LATE THIS
AM WILL SHIFT SEWD TOWARD PA LATER TODAY. LG SCALE FORCING AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE...COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING OF MOIST AIR
MASS...AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE CFRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
RESULT IN SCT TSRA AFTN...ESP OVR THE NW MTNS. MODEST DEEP LYR
SHEAR THERE SUGGESTS SOME LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTERS MAY
FORM...MAINLY OVR THE NRN 2/3RDS OF THE AREA.

TEMPS SHOULDN/T HAVE MUCH TROUBLE REACHING CLOSE TO 90F ACROSS
THE SUSQ VALLEY BY AFTN...GIVEN A BIT OF SUNSHINE AND 850MB TEMPS
NR 17C. MAX TEMPS CLOSER TO 80F EXPECTED OVR THE W MTNS...WHERE
LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL BE SLOW TO MIX OUT/BREAK UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MAINLY DIURNAL IN NATURE...AND
DECREASE IN CVRG WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. HOWEVER...ARRIVAL OF
UPPER TROF AND ASSOC WEAK SFC LOW LATE TONIGHT WILL BRING A
RENEWED THREAT OF SHRA ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN COUNTIES.

NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA APPEAR TO BE IN THE PICTURE FOR SATURDAY...AS
SLOW-MOVING UPPER TROF MOVES OVER THE AREA. DIURNAL HEATING WILL
ENHANCE THE COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA BY AFTN...WITH LIKELY POPS NOW
SUPPORTED BY SREF DATA OVR MUCH OF THE AREA. DESPITE MCLDY SKIES...TEMPS
SHOULD STILL REACH WELL INTO THE 80S IN THE VALLEYS...AS PA WILL
REMAIN IN WARM/HUMID AIR MASS SOUTH OF QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BNDRY ALONG THE PA/NY BORDER. SVR WX THREAT APPEARS FAIRLY LOW SAT
AFTN...GIVEN WEAK SHEAR AND ONLY MODEST CAPES INDICATED BY MDLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES AND ASSOC DRY AIR MASS MAY MAKE SUNDAY THE ONLY
COMPLETELY DRY DAY OF THE EXTENDED FCST. MED RANGE GUIDANCE ALL
AGREE ON THE IDEA OF A NEARLY STAGNANT LG SCALE PATTERN OVER THE
LOWER 48 NEXT WEEK...WITH PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEAST
CONUS.

WITH THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS JUST WEST OF THE AREA...CENTRAL PA WILL
BE IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR FREQUENT...DIURNALLY-ENHANCED
SHOWERS. ENSEMBLE MEAN 850 TEMPS INDICATE OUR TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE
TO SEASONAL NORMS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KBFD ASOS POWER/DATA LOSS PROBLEM CONTINUES /DUE TO STORMS THU
AFT/. FAA AND NWS TECHNICIANS WILL BE TEAMING UP TO HOOK UP A
GENERATOR TO MAINTAIN THE CONTINUITY OF THE OBSERVATION BETWEEN 6
AM AND 10 PM EDT.

AT 15Z...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WERE AFFECTING THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MTNS WITH VFR IN THE SOUTHEAST. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR
ALL AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON /THOUGH KJST-KBFD WILL TAKE LONGEST
TO IMPROVE/.

SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE NRN MTNS OF PENN WILL PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS THE STATE TODAY INTO SAT. SCT TSRA AND MVFR CIGS EXPECTED
TO OCCASIONALLY IMPACT CENTRAL PA AIRFIELDS ONCE AGAIN LATER TODAY
/MAINLY NW HALF/...THOUGH COVERAGE/INTENSITY WILL BE MUCH LESS
THAN YESTERDAY. ISOLATED CONVECTION POSS OVERNIGHT WITH VSBYS
LOWERING IN MOST PLACES. THEN SCT CONVECTION AGAIN FOR SAT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...AM FOG. SCT MAINLY AFTERNOON TSRA W LOCAL IMPACTS.
SUN...AM FOG POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VFR.
MON...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
TUE...MVFR POSS WITH RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
AVIATION...LAMBERT/RXR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1034 AM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063-064-281445-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-
JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-
SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-
ADAMS-
1034 AM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...THAT WILL BE DRIFTING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE.

SOME OF THE STORMS WILL CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...SMALL
HAIL...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PAZ065-066-281445-
YORK-LANCASTER-
1034 AM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF LOCALIZED DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH...AND HAIL
UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

LAMBERT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
112 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

PAZ004-271830-
WARREN PA-
112 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DRIFTING EAST AND TRAINING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WARREN COUNTY THROUGH 3 PM EDT...

AT 107 PM EDT...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM
SPARTANSBURG TO PLEASANTVILLE...WEST. THE STORMS WERE MOVING SLOWLY
TO THE EAST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.
THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT GRAND VALLEY...GARLAND...TIDIOUTE AND
CLARENDON.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OF OVER ONE INCH IS POSSIBLE WHERE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OVER THE SAME LOCATION.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 6...ROUTE 62.

LAT...LON 4183 7962 4182 7909 4162 7901 4162 7961
      4163 7962

FORECASTER: LAMBERT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
215 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

PAZ006-010>012-271930-
CAMERON PA-ELK PA-NORTHERN CLINTON PA-POTTER PA-
215 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL
CAMERON...ELK...NORTHWESTERN CLINTON AND SOUTH CENTRAL POTTER
COUNTIES THROUGH 330 PM EDT...

AT 211 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM ELK
RIVER TO LYNCH TO TIONESTA...MOVING TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND MARBLE TO PENNY SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THE THESE STORMS. EXPECT FREQUENT...DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING FROM THESE STORMS. DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN NOR SEEK
SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING THREATENS...MOVE INDOORS WHEN A
THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES. THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT EAST BRANCH
DAM...PORTLAND MILLS...RIDGWAY...ST. MARYS AND TRUMAN.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 219...STATE ROAD
66...STATE ROAD 120...STATE ROAD 255.

LAT...LON 4143 7907 4145 7907 4145 7897 4160 7896
      4160 7840 4149 7787 4139 7793 4135 7821
      4124 7853 4125 7864 4123 7865 4124 7875
      4127 7876 4137 7897 4135 7902 4134 7910
      4142 7910

FORECASTER: LAMBERT