Special Weather Statement, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1114 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY TONIGHT. A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER FOR THURSDAY.
UNSETTLED WEATHER SHOULD RETURN BY LATE IN THE WEEK AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL STATES AND MOVES
NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SVR WATCH 312 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT FOR THE NW AND WRN COS.
STORMS ARE FIRING OVER FAR NW PA AND ALL OVER ERN OH NOW. MANY OF
THESE STORMS ARE ALREADY TURNING SEVERE. HAVE ADDED SVR WORDING TO
THE GRIDS/ZFP...AND TIMING REMAINS THE SAME AS ANTICIPATED.
TROUBLE MAY COME AS ADDITIONAL STORM CELLS WILL MOST LIKELY
DEVELOP AHEAD/EAST OF THE CURRENT AREA OF STORMS...FIRST ALONG THE
RIDGES AND DRIFTING ENE. THE ENVIRONMENT IN THE EAST IS ROUGHLY
SIMILAR TO THAT IN THE WEST BUT LACKS MUCH SHEAR. LAPSE RATES IN
THE LOW LEVELS ARE SHOOTING UP AS TEMPS ARE ALREADY IN THE L/M80S
AT 11 AM. CAPES COULD TOP 2000J/KG TODAY WITH NO CAP TO BE PRESENT
LATER TODAY AS LAPSE RATES ALSO STEEPEN ALOFT. HAIL IS LOOKING
LIKELY WITH SVR HAIL POSS...AND WIND DMG POSSIBLE AS WELL...BUT
WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT EXTREME. HEAVY RAINERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH
PWATS IN THE 1.5-1.75 INCH RANGE THIS AFTN/EVENING AND STORM
RELATIVE FLOW SLIGHTLY AGAINST THE INFLOW...MAKING FOR THE POSS OF
SLOW MOVING CELLS /BACK-BUILDING. WILL HOLD OFF ON FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR NOW AND KEEP MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN/POSS FLOODING IN HWO.
FRONT NOT QUITE INTO KDTW NOR KTOL ATTM...SO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED.

EXPECT THE SVR THREAT TO PERSIST INTO THE EVE HRS ESP OVER THE
ERN/SERN COS BEFORE DIURNAL COOLING DIMINISHES THREAT LATER TNT.
HOWEVER AS THE SOURCE OF LIFT FOR THESE STORMS IS ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECT THEM TO CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING.
PCPN SHOULD BE OVER/EXIT THE SE PART OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE ESEWD FM THE
ARROWHEAD OF MN AND TRACK ALONG THE U.S/CANADIAN BORDER REACHING
NRN NEW ENGLAND ON THURS. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS SYSTEM AND PUSH EWD THROUGH CENTRAL PA WED NGT. NLY FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EWD INTO PA FM THE UPPER
MS VLY WILL BRING A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS TO THE REGION ON
THURS. BERYL WILL LIFT NEWD FM THE NC COAST INTO THE NRN ATLC BY
THE END OF THE PD. A STG MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIVING SEWD THRU
THE CENTRAL STATES SHOULD FORM AN AREA OF LOW PRES OVR THE SRN
PLAINS/LWR MS VLY WHICH SHOULD TRACK NWD INTO THE OH VLY/GRT LKS
FRI-FRI NGT.

A FEW STG TO SVR STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE ON WED TO THE SOUTH/EAST
OF THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT. SPC OUTLINED MOST OF THE CWA IN THE
SEE TEXT. THUR NGT-FRI MORNING LOOKS RATHER CHILLY ESP IN THE NRN
TIER WITH HIGH PRES OVRHEAD AND PWS BLW NORMAL. OVRRNG TYPE RAINS
SHOULD EVENTUALLY REACH THE AREA FRI-FRI NGT AS THE PLAINS SYS
EVOLVES NEWD INTO THE LWR LKS. MODEL SPREAD IS HIGH REGARDING THIS
SYSTEM SO OPTED FOR EVEN MODEL COMPROMISE SPLIT BETWEEN THE SLOWER
GFS AND PROGRESSIVE EURO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GFS/EC ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW A H5 TROUGH PERSISTING OVER THE NE
STATES/NEW ENG WITH THE LOCAL AREA UNDER NW FLOW ON THE SW EDGE
OF THE LOW CENTER. INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE NAO IS FCST TO
APPROACH MINUS 3 WHICH WOULD FAVOR COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS.
HOWEVER THE GEFS WANTS TO REBOUND HEIGHTS ABOVE NORMAL WHILE THE
ECENS KEEPS A LW TROUGH IN PLACE WITH CLOSED LOW OVR NRN NEW ENG.
CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN AVERAGE AND THEREFORE HEDGED LONG TERM
GRIDS TWD THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS TO ADDRESS THE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COVERAGE OF TSRA/SHRA WILL RAMP UP MARKEDLY AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO NORTHWESTERN PA LATER THIS AFTN. ALL AIRFIELDS ARE
LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE A TSRA BY THIS EVENING...CAUSING BRIEF VSBY
REDUCTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS. BEST CHC OF TSRA WILL BE EARLY AFTN AT
BFD...MID AFTN TO LATE AFTN IPT/UNV/AOO/JST...AND EARLY EVENING AT
MDT AND LNS. FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS
IN BEHIND DEPARTING FRONT. HOWEVER...LATEST MDL DATA SUGGESTS
LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
POSSIBILITY OF DENSE FOG.

OUTLOOK...
WED...AM FOG POSS. ISOLD AFTN SHRA/TSRA POSS.
THU...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
FRI...PM THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
SAT...THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/CERU/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/CERU

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1138 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

PAZ004-291645-
WARREN PA-
1138 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY...

AT 1135 AM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR GARLAND...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT LOTTSVILLE...YOUNGSVILLE...SUGAR
GROVE...RUSSELL...KINZUA DAM AND SCANDIA.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 6...ROUTE 62...
AND STATE ROAD 59.

LAT...LON 4200 7892 4188 7891 4186 7892 4185 7891
      4184 7892 4174 7948 4179 7955 4201 7939

FORECASTER: DANGELO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1218 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 PM     HAIL             COLUMBUS                41.95N  79.58W
05/29/2012  M1.00 INCH       WARREN             PA   NWS OFFICE

            REPORT RELAYED FROM NWS CLEVELAND

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1200064

COLBERT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1220 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

PAZ004-291645-
WARREN PA-
1220 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN WARREN COUNTY...

AT 1218 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR TITUSVILLE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. THIS STORM WILL AFFECT ENTERPRISE...GRAND
VALLEY AND TIDIOUTE. THIS STORM WILL IMPACT ROUTE 62.

LAT...LON 4176 7960 4176 7924 4170 7908 4162 7932
      4162 7952 4162 7961 4163 7962 4175 7962

FORECASTER: DANGELO