Severe Thunderstorm Warning 38, NWS State College, PA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
257 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING
AND EARLY TONIGHT. A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER FOR THURSDAY. UNSETTLED
WEATHER SHOULD RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL STATES AND MOVES NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ON-GOING SEVERE WEATHER IS ALREADY STARTING TO SLIDE OUT OF THE
NWRN COS. THE REAL COLD FRONT APPEARS RATHER NEBULOUS/ILL-DEFINED
AT THIS TIME...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE INTO NW PA JUST YET AS
PRESSURES ARE FLAT OR CONTINUE TO FALL. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED SOME TO
THE W/NW OVER OH...AND SHOULD BE A GOOD SIGN FOR THE END OF THE
EVENT. SVR THREAT CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING IN THE FAR SE...BUT
SHOULD BE OVER IN THE CENTRAL COS IN THE NEXT 3-4 HRS. THREATS ARE
BOTH HAIL AND WIND. SB CAPES RUNNING ABOVE 3000J/KG IN THE ERN COS
RIGHT NOW PER SPC MESO ANALYSIS GRAPHIC...BUT A LITTLE CAP THERE
IS HELPING THE CONVECTION WAIT UNTIL THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH COMES
BY TO TAP INTO IT. SVR WATCHES COVER THE ENTIRE AREA...BUT THE NW
MAY BE CANCELLED SOON. SO FAR THE RAIN HAS NOT BEEN HEAVY ENOUGH
TO WARRANT ANY FLOOD ADVYS/WARNS. THE CELLS APPEAR TO BE MOVING
STEADILY...BUT HAVE LITTLE ORGANIZATION. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.

OVERNIGHT CLEARING WILL ALLOW SOME FOG TO FORM IN AREAS THAT HAVE
HAD RAIN. THE WINDS WILL GO VERY LIGHT WITHOUT MUCH OF A DYNAMIC
PUSH. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL DIP INTO THE M50S TO M60S...WHICH IS
ABOUT NORMAL FOR AN EARLY SUMMER DAY.

INSTABILITY GOES UP WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY BEHIND THE MAIN
FRONT ON WED. PLUS...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD SWING THROUGH
THE REGION IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY AS WELL. WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION SLIGHT CHCS OF THUNDER FOR MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT THE
SC/SE. SMALL HAIL GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THESE CELLS WED
LATE MORNING AND AFTN. MAXES WILL BE 5-10F COOLER THAN TUES...AND
MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL. THE SE WILL STILL BE 5-10F ABOVE NORMAL ON
MAXES WITH NEARLY FULL SUN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE ESEWD FM THE
ARROWHEAD OF MN AND TRACK ALONG THE U.S/CANADIAN BORDER REACHING
NRN NEW ENGLAND ON THURS. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS SYSTEM AND PUSH EWD THROUGH CENTRAL PA WED NGT. NLY FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EWD INTO PA FM THE UPPER
MS VLY WILL BRING A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS TO THE REGION ON
THURS. BERYL WILL LIFT NEWD FM THE NC COAST INTO THE NRN ATLC BY
THE END OF THE PD. A STG MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIVING SEWD THRU
THE CENTRAL STATES SHOULD FORM AN AREA OF LOW PRES OVR THE SRN
PLAINS/LWR MS VLY WHICH SHOULD TRACK NWD INTO THE OH VLY/GRT LKS
FRI-FRI NGT.

A FEW STG TO SVR STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE ON WED TO THE SOUTH/EAST
OF THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT. SPC OUTLINED MOST OF THE CWA IN THE
SEE TEXT. THUR NGT-FRI MORNING LOOKS RATHER CHILLY ESP IN THE NRN
TIER WITH HIGH PRES OVRHEAD AND PWS BLW NORMAL. OVRRNG TYPE RAINS
SHOULD EVENTUALLY REACH THE AREA FRI-FRI NGT AS THE PLAINS SYS
EVOLVES NEWD INTO THE LWR LKS. MODEL SPREAD IS HIGH REGARDING THIS
SYSTEM SO OPTED FOR EVEN MODEL COMPROMISE SPLIT BETWEEN THE SLOWER
GFS AND PROGRESSIVE EURO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GFS/EC ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW A H5 TROUGH PERSISTING OVER THE NE
STATES/NEW ENG WITH THE LOCAL AREA UNDER NW FLOW ON THE SW EDGE
OF THE LOW CENTER. INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE NAO IS FCST TO
APPROACH MINUS 3 WHICH WOULD FAVOR COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS.
HOWEVER THE GEFS WANTS TO REBOUND HEIGHTS ABOVE NORMAL WHILE THE
ECENS KEEPS A LW TROUGH IN PLACE WITH CLOSED LOW OVR NRN NEW ENG.
CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN AVERAGE AND THEREFORE HEDGED LONG TERM
GRIDS TWD THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS TO ADDRESS THE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM AVIAITON CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND ONGOING AND DEVELOPING
CONVECTION AREAWIDE. TRIED TO TIME MAIN AREA OF STORMS THROUGH
EACH AIRFIELD...HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE OF A TSRA AT ANY TIME THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

MAIN AREA OF SHRA/TSRA WILL EXIT THE EASTERN AREA AROUND 23Z AND
THEN AREAS OF BR WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AT MOST SITES.

OUTLOOK...
WED...AM FOG POSS. ISOLD AFTN SHRA/TSRA POSS.
THU...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
FRI...PM THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
SAT...THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...CERU/TYBURSKI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
302 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

PAZ004>006-010-011-301915-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-
302 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PAZ017-024-033-301915-
CLEARFIELD-CAMBRIA-SOMERSET-
302 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 312 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...AND
SOME STORMS MAY MOVE VERY SLOWLY. FLASH FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PAZ018-019-025>028-034-035-049>053-058-301915-
NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-
BEDFORD-FULTON-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-
SCHUYLKILL-
302 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 314 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...AND SOME STORMS MAY MOVE VERY SLOWLY. FLASH
FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PAZ012-037-041-042-045-046-301915-
NORTHERN CLINTON-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-
SOUTHERN LYCOMING-
302 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 314 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PAZ036-056-057-059-063>066-301915-
FRANKLIN-PERRY-DAUPHIN-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
302 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 314 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

RXR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
113 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

PAZ006-037-291800-
POTTER PA-TIOGA PA-
113 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL POTTER AND WEST
CENTRAL TIOGA COUNTIES...

AT 106 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR LYMAN RUN STATE
PARK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
THIS STORM WILL AFFECT GALETON...GAINES AND WESTFIELD.

THIS WILL IMPACT ROUTE 6.

LAT...LON 4196 7748 4172 7732 4160 7778 4166 7789
      4177 7788

FORECASTER: RXR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
121 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

PAZ006-012-291745-
NORTHERN CLINTON PA-POTTER PA-
121 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL CLINTON AND
SOUTHEASTERN POTTER COUNTIES...

AT 117 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR TAMARACK...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND PENNY SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM. THIS STORM WILL STAY OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTH CENTRAL
CLINTON COUNTY AND SOUTHEASTERN POTTER COUNTY.

LAT...LON 4161 7761 4138 7759 4135 7785 4144 7790

FORECASTER: DANGELO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
128 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

PAZ005-006-291800-
MCKEAN PA-POTTER PA-
128 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EASTERN MCKEAN AND
NORTHWESTERN POTTER COUNTIES...

AT 126 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM
ELDRED TO WILCOX...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND PENNY SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS. WINDS HAVE ALREADY GUSTED TO 50 MPH AT THE BRADFORD AIRPORT.
THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT SHINGLEHOUSE...ROULETTE AND KEATING SUMMIT.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 6...ROUTE 219...
STATE ROAD 46...STATE ROAD 59...STATE ROAD 446.

LAT...LON 4200 7803 4163 7820 4163 7876 4201 7852

FORECASTER: DANGELO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
212 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     TSTM WND DMG     COUDERSPORT             41.77N  78.01W
05/29/2012                   POTTER             PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES AND LINES DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1200065

COLBERT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
229 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

PAZ026>028-034-035-291900-
BEDFORD PA-FULTON PA-HUNTINGDON PA-JUNIATA PA-MIFFLIN PA-
229 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL BEDFORD...
NORTHERN FULTON...SOUTHERN HUNTINGDON...SOUTHWESTERN JUNIATA AND
SOUTHWESTERN MIFFLIN COUNTIES...

AT 227 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM BROAD
TOP CITY TO BREEZEWOOD...MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.
THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT SALTILLO...ORBISONIA AND SHADE GAP.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTERSTATES...THE
PENNSYLVANIA TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 162 AND 186...I-70 BETWEEN
MILE MARKERS 147 AND 148.

THIS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE FOLLOWING MAJOR ROADS...ROUTE 22...ROUTE
22/522...ROUTE 30...ROUTE 522.

LAT...LON 3999 7826 4043 7809 4048 7761 4003 7789
      4001 7792 3995 7794

FORECASTER: GARTNER/JUNG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
245 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WESTMONT                40.32N  78.95W
05/29/2012                   CAMBRIA            PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1200066

COLBERT