Small Craft Advisory 46, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
254 PM CDT SAT SEP 29 2012

.SHORT-TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA'S ARE
DVLPG THIS AFTERNOON AHD OF A FRONTAL BDRY AND ASSOCIATED UPPER
TROF. THE CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE NRN
CWA...HOWEVER A FEW WEAK ECHOES ARE BEGINNING TO POP UP IN MEX AND ALONG
THE BDRY ITSELF. AM EXPECTING MAINLY SCT CONVECTION ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA FOR THE AFTERNOON DUE TO DRIER MID/UPPER LEVELS MOVG
INTO THE AREA FROM THE W AND NW. THUS WENT WITH ONLY A 30 POP OUT
WEST. KEPT LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE E WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE STILL
RESIDES AND THE AIRMASS STILL HAS TIME TO DESTABILIZE THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT DEBATED WHETHER OR NOT TO
CANCEL IT FOR WEBB COUNTY WHERE LESS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED.
DECIDED FOR NOW TO KEEP WEBB AS WELL GIVEN THE 4-5IN AMOUNTS THAT
FELL OVERNIGHT AND ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. PORTIONS OF THE FFA ACROSS THE WEST WILL LIKELY BE
CANCELED EARLY AS THE PRECIP EXITS THE AREA. TONIGHT RAIN CHCS
DECREASE FROM W TO E AS THE UPPER TROF EXITS TO THE E AND THE BDRY
PUSHES OFFSHORE BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MILD COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL LEAD TO HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S ON SUNDAY. MODELS ARE
HINTING AT PCLDY/MCLDY SKIES RATHER THAN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE AROUND 850MB.

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK TO MODERATE S TO SW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BECOMING A STRONG OFFSHORE
FLOW BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE OFFSHORE WATERS WHERE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHRA'S AND TSRA'S CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THEN ENDING
FROM W TO E THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...OVERALL LOOKS
QUIET...WITH MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS WHETHER FRONT WILL COME DOWN
THE END OF NEXT WEEK OR STAY TO THE NORTH. UPPER RIDGE/STRONG N-S
FLOW IS PRESENT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY THEN WEAKENS. PWATS
AROUND THE RIO GRANDE APPROACH 1.25 INCHES LATE MONDAY AS WEAK
JET/SOME ENERGY ALOFT MOVES TOWARD AREA. THINK OVERALL THAT RAIN
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT
SOME QPF OUT THERE. FOR NOW WILL JUST GO WITH 10 POPS NEAR THE RIO
GRANDE/WESTERN AREAS AND 5 POPS OVER THE EAST. PWAT VALUES DROP
TUESDAY AND STAY AOB 1 INCH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT FLOW AT
THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE ENERGY WILL BE WELL NORTH. ALSO...DIP IN TROUGH
DOES NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO BRING A FRONT DOWN LIKE
MODELS WERE HINTING IN EARLIER FORECASTS (ECMWF HAS BACK OFF SOME
NOW TOO FOR SATURDAY...MAYBE BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING). AS A
RESULT...WILL KEEP ONSHORE FLOW GOING THROUGH SATURDAY AND WARM
TEMPERATURES UP A BIT FOR NEXT WEEKEND (AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON). WITH FRONTAL UNCERTAINTY...NO RAIN IN THE FORECAST YET.
ALSO...BASED ON NEW GUIDANCE...WARMED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES UP A BIT
MAINLY TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...MAINLY SUBTLE CHANGES
TO PREVIOUS MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE FORECASTS AND MOST OTHER PARAMETERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    71  85  64  88  62  /  40  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          67  83  60  86  58  /  60  10   0  10  10
LAREDO            72  88  68  88  67  /  10  10   0  10  10
ALICE             68  87  63  88  62  /  30  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          74  84  65  87  64  /  60  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           67  84  63  86  62  /  10  10   0  10  10
KINGSVILLE        70  86  64  88  63  /  40  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       74  84  68  86  66  /  50  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...
     MCMULLEN...REFUGIO...VICTORIA...WEBB.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

TE/81...SHORT TERM
GW/86...LONG TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
535 AM CDT SAT SEP 29 2012

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-301045-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O'CONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM-WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
535 AM CDT SAT SEP 29 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT TODAY ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS...VICTORIA CROSSROADS...AND NORTHERN COASTAL BEND. MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.
ADDITIONAL AREAS OF MODERATE RAIN MAY OCCUR TODAY ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF SOUTH TEXAS.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS IN EFFECT TODAY ALONG GULF
FACING BEACHES.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS THE
NEAR AND OFFSHORE GULF WATERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

RH/TB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
258 PM CDT SAT SEP 29 2012

TXZ231-232-292100-
BEE-LIVE OAK-
258 PM CDT SAT SEP 29 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS AFFECTING BEE AND LIVE OAK COUNTIES...

AT 256 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OAKVILLE...OR 7 MILES
NORTHEAST OF GEORGE WEST...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

TE