Severe Thunderstorm Warning 149, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1141 PM CDT FRI SEP 28 2012

.DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BUILD IN WEBB AND LASALLE
COUNTIES...AND BACK INTO MEXICO. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALSO
FALLEN IN PARTS OF WEBB COUNTY AS WELL. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
TRACK EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AFFECTING MUCH OF THE CWA. SOME STORMS
MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LRD TAF
SITE BETWEEN 05 AND 07Z THIS MORNING WITH GUSTY WINDS LIKELY.
RAIN WILL ALSO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON AND
BRING AN END TO THE RAIN. FOR EASTERN SITES SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
EASTERN SITES BY LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 810 PM CDT FRI SEP 28 2012/

DISCUSSION...NOT TOO MUCH ADJUSTMENT NEEDED IN THE FORECAST SO
FAR THIS EVENING. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS JUST A BIT FOR THE 00 TO 06Z
TIME PERIOD...INCREASING A BIT IN THE NORTHWEST AND CUTTING BACK IN
THE EAST. HAVE BEEN WATCHING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES OVER MEXICO
APPROACHING THE RIO GRANDE THIS EVENING. MESO MODELS HAD BEEN
BLOWING UP A LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 00 AND 02Z
MOVING THROUGH WEB COUNTY. THIS HAD BEEN LOOKING LIKE IT WOULD PAN
OUT...BUT THUNDERSTORMS HAVE QUICKLY DIED OUT...ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHERN WEBB COUNTY. THERE ARE STILL TWO ADDITIONAL COMPLEXES
ABOUT 75 MILES WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. BOTH COMLPEXES HAVE SHOWN
SOME WARMING OF CLOUD TOP TEMPS IN THE LAST HOUR...AS WELL AS A
DECREASE IN LIGHTNING. HOWEVER...THINK THE SOUTHERN COMPLEX COULD
HOLD TOGETHER TO AT LEAST BRING RAIN INTO WESTERN AREAS.

ELSEWHERE...SEEING SOME DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
ATTM...AND EXPECT THIS COVERAGE WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

ALSO OF NOTE...EVENING SOUNDING OUT OF KCRP INDICATES A 2.43 PWAT
AT 00Z. 18Z MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATED AROUND 2.25 INCH AT THE SAME
TIME...SO WE'RE CERTAINLY NOT UNDERPERFORMING IN THE
MOISTURE...AND MAY SEE NEWER MODEL RUNS INCREASE EVEN FURTHER
BASED ON INPUT FROM THIS SOUNDING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT FRI SEP 28 2012/

DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR 00Z AVIATION BELOW.

AVIATION...TAF THROUGH THE FIRST 12 HOURS ARE WEIGHED HEAVILY
TOWARDS RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...THEN TRENDED
TOWARDS BLEND OF GLOBAL MODELS AFTER 12Z. WITH THAT SAID...
SHRAS AND TSTMS HAVE ENDED ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA EARLY THIS EVE.
THIS WILL BE TEMPORARY AS DISTURBANCE FROM MEXICO APPROACHES AND
ADDITIONAL SHRA AND TSTMS DEVELOP COT-LRD NOW THRU 03Z. SHRAS AND
TSTMS WILL SPREAD EAST INTO COASTAL BEND AND EASTERN TAFS SITES
AFTER 06Z. A FEW OF THE TSTMS OUT NEAR LRD/COT MAY BECOME STRONG
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
IN SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT FRI SEP 28 2012/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...A WET FCST STILL ON TAP FOR
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO A MOD TO STRONG SHORT WAVE
ALOFT AND A COLD FRONT THAT ARE PROGD TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
MODELS VARY SOME WHAT WITH TIMING OF THE FRONTAL BDRY AND PLACEMENT
OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL...BUT DO ALL AGREE THAT THE HEAVIER RAINFALL
WILL REMAIN N OF THE CWA. HOWEVER STILL EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE CWA. THE ONGOING SHOWERS AND ISOLD
TSRA'S WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH THE ACTIVITY INCREASING ACROSS THE
NW CWA LATE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THE FRONTAL BDRY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE W CWA LATE
SAT MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE E REACHING THE COAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE BDRY WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR RAIN...HOWEVER
NORTHWARD MOVG CONVECTION IS ALSO EXPECTED WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE
BDRY. PWAT'S WILL REMAIN AT OR ABV 2 INCHES LEADING TO THE HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL. AM EXPECTING RAIN AMOUNTS TO AVE 1 TO 3 INCHES
WITH ISOLD 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL RATES MAY REACH 1 TO 3
INCHES PER HOUR WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. THEREFORE HAVE
GONE WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS...VICTORIA
CROSSROADS AND NORTHERN COASTAL BEND WHERE THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED. NOT MUCH COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONTAL BDRY BUT
WILL SEE COOLER TEMPS MAINLY DUE TO THE INCREASED RAIN/CLOUDS. A MOD
TO STRONG N TO NW FLOW IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE BDRY.

MARINE...A WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING
THEN STRENGTHENING OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH SCA'S LIKELY BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA'S AND TSRA'S CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...EXPECTING ACTIVITY TO
BEGIN WINDING DOWN SATURDAY EVENING (DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS
BEFORE SATURDAY MORNING)...AS THETA-E AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OUT
OF THE AREA AND UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST. STILL WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS
OUT OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN AREAS...WITH DIMINISHING POPS
SOUTH AND WEST. LEFT FRONT QUAD OF UPPER JET MOVES TOWARD AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL BE NORTHEAST OF AREA
AND WITH DRIER AIR COMING DOWN RATHER WELL...DO NOT WANT TO HIT THE
POPS TOO HARD (AM GOING A BIT LOWER THAN HPC QPF TOO BECAUSE OF THIS
ESPECIALLY WEST AND SOUTH). COULD HAVE SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY
MAINLY NORTHEAST SUNDAY MORNING...THEN DRIER AIR REALLY TAKES
CONTROL AS NORTH TO SOUTH FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT. REST OF THE WEEK
SHOULD BE QUIET...AS UPPER RIDGE STAYS IN PLACE FOR THE MOST PART
EARLY THEN SPLIT IN FLOW ALOFT DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK KEEPS
THE FORECAST AREA ON THE UNFAVORABLE SIDE OF TROUGH AXIS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. AS A RESULT...HAVE GHOST 5-10 POPS FOR
NEXT WEEK WITH NO RAINFALL EXPECTED. AS WINDS BEGIN TO SETTLE DOWN
BY MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY MORNING...COULD HAVE SOME
ISSUES WITH FOG IF RAINFALL IS SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW STANDING WATER IN
SOME LOCATIONS. OBVIOUSLY...TOO EARLY TO FORECAST THAT CONSIDERING
THE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL WILL FINALLY OCCUR OVER AREA
(GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE MODEL QPFS HAVE HIGHER VALUES NORTH OF THE
AREA). CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...COOLER 60S BY MONDAY MORNING (MAYBE
EVEN SOME UPPER 50S NORTHERN TIER) WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S
THROUGH MID WEEK THEN AROUND 90/LOWER 90S BY FRIDAY OVER SOUTHERN
INLAND AREAS WITH LOWS STILL MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    77  87  69  86  64  /  60  80  40  10  10
VICTORIA          72  82  67  84  61  /  70  90  60  20  10
LAREDO            76  88  72  89  70  /  80  70  10  10   0
ALICE             75  87  68  88  64  /  60  70  30  10  10
ROCKPORT          77  85  68  84  67  /  60  80  50  20  10
COTULLA           73  84  66  86  63  /  90  90  10  10   0
KINGSVILLE        75  88  69  88  64  /  60  80  30  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       78  86  71  85  69  /  60  80  40  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...LA SALLE...LIVE
     OAK...MCMULLEN...REFUGIO...VICTORIA...WEBB.

GM...NONE.

&&

PZ/83...SHORT TERM
SC/70...LONG TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
532 AM CDT FRI SEP 28 2012

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-291045-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O'CONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM-WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
532 AM CDT FRI SEP 28 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TODAY WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TONIGHT.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY LEAD TO
A LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT ACROSS THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MAY LEAD TO A LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT ACROSS THE AREA.
IN ADDITION...AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM MAY ALSO OCCUR
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
END FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY AS DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO EXIST ALONG GULF FACING
BEACHES ON SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

RH/TB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
856 PM CDT FRI SEP 28 2012

TXZ239-290230-
WEBB-
856 PM CDT FRI SEP 28 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS AFFECTING FAR NORTHWEST WEBB COUNTY...

AT 853 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHUPADERA RANCH AIRPORT...
OR 29 MILES SOUTH OF CARRIZO SPRINGS...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM
AS IT REMAINS OVER RURAL AREAS OF FAR NORTHWEST WEBB COUNTY.

JR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1211 AM CDT SAT SEP 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1206 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 NNW LAREDO            27.57N 99.50W
09/29/2012                   WEBB               TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WATER OVER MINES ROAD NEAR INTERSTATE 35.

&&

HART